Your final Senate rankings?

[MT Treasurer]

Not ratings, but rank the competitive/semi-competitive Senate seats from most likely to least likely to flip. Since Senate polling has been, quite frankly, mostly garbage this year, I won’t attach nearly as much importance to it as in previous midterms.

1) North Dakota
2) Nevada
3) Missouri
4) Arizona
5) Indiana
------------------------------------------------------
6) Florida
7) Tennessee
Montana
9) Mississippi-Special
10) West Virginia
11) Texas

A lot of uncertainty here on my part, though, especially as far as #7-#10 are concerned.

[ShamDam]

This seems like a fairly reasonable list on the whole, but I don't think the evidence bears out Texas being a less likely flip than WV or MS.

[Gass3268]

1) North Dakota
2) Nevada
3) Arizona
4) Missouri
------------------------------------------------------
5) Indiana

Gap

6) Florida
7) Texas
Montana
9) West Virginia
10) Tennessee

[Xing]

I mostly agree with 1-5, but for the next few I'd say...

6. Montana
7. Florida
8. Texas
9. West Virginia
10. Tennessee
11. Mississippi Special

[😥]

1.North Dakota
2.Arizona
3.Nevada
4.Tennessee
--------------------
5.Missouri
6.Florida
7.Texas
8.Montana
9.MS-special
10.West Virginia

[DaWN]

1. Nevada
2. North Dakota
3. Arizona
4. Missouri
5. Indiana

------------------

6. Montana
7. Florida
8. Texas
9. West Virginia
10. Tennessee

-----------------

11. MS-Special

[MT Treasurer]

I mostly agree with 1-5, but for the next few I'd say...

6. Montana
7. Florida
8. Texas
9. West Virginia
10. Tennessee
11. Mississippi Special

So you don’t buy all the polls showing TT winning by >7 points?

[Politician]

1. North Dakota
2. Nevada
3. Arizona
->SEATS ABOVE THIS LINE FLIP
4. Missouri
5. Indiana
6. Florida
7. Tennessee
8. Texas
->SEATS ABOVE THIS LINE ARE WITHIN 5 POINTS
9. Montana
10. West Virginia
11. New Jersey
12. Mississippi Special
13. Minnesota Special

[Xing]

I mostly agree with 1-5, but for the next few I'd say...

6. Montana
7. Florida
8. Texas
9. West Virginia
10. Tennessee
11. Mississippi Special

So you don’t buy all the polls showing TT winning by >7 points?

If Tester's winning by more than 7, then Congrats to Senate Majority Leader Schumer. I'd be pretty surprised if Tester won by more than 5, all joking aside.

[MT Treasurer]

If Tester's winning by more than 7, then Congrats to Senate Majority Leader Schumer. I'd be pretty surprised if Tester won by more than 5, all joking aside.

Yeah, I think Tester will win, but MT polling has been trash this year. Maybe, just maybe, Montana and Nevada polls are not 100% accurate, after all.

[Orser67]

Favored to flip:
1) North Dakota

Could go either way:
2) Nevada
3) Arizona
4) Missouri
5) Indiana
6) Florida

Incumbent party is clear favorite:
7) Tennessee
8) Texas
9) Montana
10) West Virginia

[Stranger in a strange land]

1) North Dakota
2) Nevada
3) Arizona
------------------------------------------------------
4) Missouri

5) Indiana





6) Florida



6) Texas
7) Tennessee

8 ) West Virginia (putting it here due to the lack of good polling)
9 ) Montana




10) New Jersey
11) MS-Special
12) MN-Special



13) MI God-Tier Super Candidate John James #BlexitIsTotallyRealAndNotAstroturf

[°Leprechaun]

From best for dems to worst

1.  Montana
2.  Indiana
3.  Florida
4.  Arizona
5.  Nevada*
6.  Missouri*
7.  Tennessee
8.  Texas
9.  North Dakota
10. MS-special
(Nebraska probably close to zero, but better than UT or WY)

* switch 5 and 6 as an alternative prediction

I predict first seven go Democratic even though it seems
unlikely especially TN, but perhaps a surprise is out there

[Yellowhammer]

Most Likely to Flip in Order:

1. North Dakota
2. Missouri
3. Nevada
4. Indiana
5. Arizona
6. Florida**
7. Montana**
8. West Virginia
9. MN-Special
10. Texas
11. Tennessee

** 6 & 7 are pretty much interchangeable. Nothing else has any realistic chance of flipping.

[KingSweden]

1. North Dakota
2. Nevada
3. Arizona
->SEATS ABOVE THIS LINE FLIP
4. Missouri
5. Indiana
6. Florida
7. Texas
->SEATS ABOVE THIS LINE ARE WITHIN 5 POINTS
8. Montana
9. Tennessee
10. West Virginia
11. New Jersey
12. Mississippi Special
13. Minnesota Special

Agreed!

[IceSpear]

Will almost certainly flip:
North Dakota
Nevada

Good chance of flipping:
Arizona
Missouri
West Virginia
Indiana
Florida
Montana

Longest of long shots:
Texas

The others aren't even worth ranking.

[Woody]

Dem gains:
None

Republican gains:
Florida Indiana Missouri Montana North Dakota West Virginia

Edit: 12:11:18 pm November 3
Changed Nevada from Dem gain to Rep hold.

[Skye]

1. ND
2. AZ
3. NV
4. MO
5. IN
6. FL
7. MT
8. WV
9. TN
10. TX