How do you think Gwen Graham would be doing if she won the nomination?

[History505]

Would the governor's race be much tighter in the polls than it currently is with Gillum having a clear advantage?

[GP270watch]

Alex Sink all over again. There isn’t much of political middle left. Florida elections are about turning out a base. It’s hard to get the Democratic base excited for candidates like Sink, Crist, and Graham. Gillum will turnout more of the base Democrats need to win, hopefully.

[Rookie Yinzer]

She and DeSantis would be trading 1 or 2 point leads back and forth in the polls. I still think the national environment and Parkland would narrowly push her over the edge but Gillum’s victory will be solid and convincing.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'd say a 55% chance of winning, but she wouldn't have the enthusiasm among youth, female  and black voters

[CookieDamage]

A much more tepid lead. There was a reason Gillum won the primary, and it's probably because people liked him more than some white lady with less charisma.. Maybe if it was her vs. him ALONE it woulda been different but even then he could have won.

[ON Progressive]

Graham would be ahead still (DeSantis is seriously awful after all), but it might be a few points closer.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

DeSantis and Graham would be trading slim poll leads.

Ultimately, DeSantis would win by 2-3%.

[Adam Griffin]

She'd be doing fine. She's not some blue dog relic from 1995: she beat an incumbent in a R+6 district that nobody was even paying attention to during the last GOP wave election.

[America Needs R'hllor]

She'd be doing fine. She's not some blue dog relic from 1995: she beat an incumbent in a R+6 district that nobody was even paying attention to during the last GOP wave election.

Yeah, she'd be doing about as well as Gillum.

[TheSaint250]

Hard to tell whether or not she’d be where Gillum is, ahead, or behind. She’d probably appeal to more centrist-minded voters or other reluctant DeSantis voters comfortable with voting for a more moderate-minded candidate. Of course, there’s always the issue of turning out the Democratic base, which is where Gillum is undoubtedly succeeding, but Graham could have solved this by choosing Gillum as her running mate.

[Figueira]

She'd almost certainly still be ahead, no idea by how much though.

[Oryxslayer]

Same lead as Gillum has right now. She wouldn't motivate AA's as hard, but make up those lost turnout voters by pealing off Pubs. The contrast between Gillum and DeSantis has helped Gillium - and Gillium is rather leftist. Graham would be a easy sell to people disgusted with the Trump/DeSantis mantra.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Same lead as Gillum has right now. She wouldn't motivate AA's as hard, but make up those lost turnout voters by pealing off Pubs. The contrast between Gillum and DeSantis has helped Gillium - and Gillium is rather leftist. Graham would be a easy sell to people disgusted with the Trump/DeSantis mantra.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL Dems like Crist and Graham started out strong and then GOP catches up. Remember Alex Sink who was supposed to beat Scott.

NV, CO, IA, VA, NH, MI, WI and Pa are tipping point races. OH and FL are just pinkish purple states

Nelson and Brown should win

[IceSpear]

I think she'd be doing better, but who really knows? If Nelson actually ends up outperforming Gillum, then she almost certainly would've done better.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

She would win by a few thousand votes, but would have slightly trailed in the polls, but I still think she would beat DeSantis.

[GP270watch]

FL Dems like Crist and Graham started out strong and then GOP catches up. Remember Alex Sink who was supposed to beat Scott.

NV, CO, IA, VA, NH, MI, WI and Pa are tipping point races. OH and FL are just pinkish purple states

Nelson and Brown should win

 Alex Sink was a bad idea. Who was going to get excited about a Bank of America executive in 2010, a year with political anger about bailouts and the aftermath of the 2008 collapse and the government response to it. Rick Scott has been pretty lucky in his political career to run against terrible opponents. He has also built a very impressive GOTV in Florida's SW counties. That's his base, if he wins again, that will be the reason.

[Young Conservative]

She'd be up by mid double digits , dominating among independents and an already excited democratic base.

[NewYorkExpress]

She'd be slightly behind what Gillum is getting right now, but DeSantis's support would also be lower, because more independents/conservadems up on the panhandle would still be undecided.

[Ohioguy29]

Not as well. I don't think it has anything to do with where either of them is on a political spectrum, she just isn't as charismatic and inspiring as Gillum. I'm a moderate Democrat who HATES when people say "abolish ICE" and stuff and I've come to prefer him over Graham. He's been absolutely killing it in the debates.

I also think him being black has really helped make a contrast with Ron the Racist. We wouldn't have had "monkey this up" or all the racist phone calls from Idaho if it had been Gwen.

[OneJ]

Not as well. I don't think it has anything to do with where either of them is on a political spectrum, she just isn't as charismatic and inspiring as Gillum. I'm a moderate Democrat who HATES when people say "abolish ICE" and stuff and I've come to prefer him over Graham. He's been absolutely killing it in the debates.

I also think him being black has really helped make a contrast with Ron the Racist. We wouldn't have had "monkey this up" or all the racist phone calls from Idaho if it had been Gwen.

I was thinking pretty much the same thing.

[Calthrina950]

Not as well. I don't think it has anything to do with where either of them is on a political spectrum, she just isn't as charismatic and inspiring as Gillum. I'm a moderate Democrat who HATES when people say "abolish ICE" and stuff and I've come to prefer him over Graham. He's been absolutely killing it in the debates.

I also think him being black has really helped make a contrast with Ron the Racist. We wouldn't have had "monkey this up" or all the racist phone calls from Idaho if it had been Gwen.

I was thinking pretty much the same thing.

This represents my thinking as well. Graham would not be energizing minority voters like Gillum is. And Florida elections appear to be all about turnout, given how closely divided the state's electorate is between the two parties.

[Progressive Pessimist]

About the same as Gillum, let's not be ridiculous. DeSantis is just that bad of a candidate.