Why isn't NJ-06 ever vulnerable for Democrats?

[Suburbia]

Yes, Frank Pallone (my congressman), represents a fairly moderate to liberal Jersey Shore (center-right Monmouth) and Middlesex industrial middle class towns and inner cities (New Brunswick, Perth Amboy). Why is it never competitive?

[Politician]

It actually was (slightly) competitive in 2010, Pallone was held to a 10 point win.

[Brittain33]

Yes, Frank Pallone (my congressman), represents a fairly moderate to liberal Jersey Shore (center-right Monmouth) and Middlesex industrial middle class towns and inner cities (New Brunswick, Perth Amboy). Why is it never competitive?

It used to be competitive in the 1990s, but demographic change and gerrymandering gradually pushed it off the table. When Pallone was first elected to fight ocean pollution, the district included more of Monmouth County and was much more competitive. It shed its Republican territory first to NJ-12, and then when that flipped Dem, to NJ-4. It's now D+9 according to Wikipedia.

• Towns in north Middlesex County (Woodbridge, Edison, Carteret, South Plainfield) are now heavily Asian or Hispanic
• Rutgers has 10,000s of students in Piscataway and New Brunswick
• New Brunswick itself is a diverse city that votes heavily D
• Marlboro and Matawan, when I lived in NJ-12 25 years ago, were disproportionately Jewish
• Along the Atlantic coast, the district scoops up urban centers (Long Branch, Asbury Park) and leaves the hinterland in Chris Smith's district

I suppose you know all of this, actually, so I'm curious why you think it would be competitive.

[Mr.Phips]

Yes, Frank Pallone (my congressman), represents a fairly moderate to liberal Jersey Shore (center-right Monmouth) and Middlesex industrial middle class towns and inner cities (New Brunswick, Perth Amboy). Why is it never competitive?

It used to be competitive in the 1990s, but demographic change and gerrymandering gradually pushed it off the table. When Pallone was first elected to fight ocean pollution, the district included more of Monmouth County and was much more competitive. It shed its Republican territory first to NJ-12, and then when that flipped Dem, to NJ-4. It's now D+9 according to Wikipedia.

• Towns in north Middlesex County (Woodbridge, Edison, Carteret, South Plainfield) are now heavily Asian or Hispanic
• Rutgers has 10,000s of students in Piscataway and New Brunswick
• New Brunswick itself is a diverse city that votes heavily D
• Marlboro and Matawan, when I lived in NJ-12 25 years ago, were disproportionately Jewish
• Along the Atlantic coast, the district scoops up urban centers (Long Branch, Asbury Park) and leaves the hinterland in Chris Smith's district

I suppose you know all of this, actually, so I'm curious why you think it would be competitive.

When Pallone was first elected in 1988, the district was actually quite Republican as it included all of Monmouth and Brick Township in Ocean.  The 1992 redistricting made it much more Democratic by removing Ocean county and inland parts of Ocean and adding more of Middlesex (used to be the nucleus of Bernard Dwyer's old district).

[Suburbia]

Yes, Frank Pallone (my congressman), represents a fairly moderate to liberal Jersey Shore (center-right Monmouth) and Middlesex industrial middle class towns and inner cities (New Brunswick, Perth Amboy). Why is it never competitive?

It used to be competitive in the 1990s, but demographic change and gerrymandering gradually pushed it off the table. When Pallone was first elected to fight ocean pollution, the district included more of Monmouth County and was much more competitive. It shed its Republican territory first to NJ-12, and then when that flipped Dem, to NJ-4. It's now D+9 according to Wikipedia.

• Towns in north Middlesex County (Woodbridge, Edison, Carteret, South Plainfield) are now heavily Asian or Hispanic
• Rutgers has 10,000s of students in Piscataway and New Brunswick
• New Brunswick itself is a diverse city that votes heavily D
• Marlboro and Matawan, when I lived in NJ-12 25 years ago, were disproportionately Jewish
• Along the Atlantic coast, the district scoops up urban centers (Long Branch, Asbury Park) and leaves the hinterland in Chris Smith's district

I suppose you know all of this, actually, so I'm curious why you think it would be competitive.

I do know some, but I'm thinking if the blue collar towns of South Amboy, Sayreville and South River's rightward trend lately to Trump can cause it to be competitive.

[Brittain33]

Yes, Frank Pallone (my congressman), represents a fairly moderate to liberal Jersey Shore (center-right Monmouth) and Middlesex industrial middle class towns and inner cities (New Brunswick, Perth Amboy). Why is it never competitive?

It used to be competitive in the 1990s, but demographic change and gerrymandering gradually pushed it off the table. When Pallone was first elected to fight ocean pollution, the district included more of Monmouth County and was much more competitive. It shed its Republican territory first to NJ-12, and then when that flipped Dem, to NJ-4. It's now D+9 according to Wikipedia.

• Towns in north Middlesex County (Woodbridge, Edison, Carteret, South Plainfield) are now heavily Asian or Hispanic
• Rutgers has 10,000s of students in Piscataway and New Brunswick
• New Brunswick itself is a diverse city that votes heavily D
• Marlboro and Matawan, when I lived in NJ-12 25 years ago, were disproportionately Jewish
• Along the Atlantic coast, the district scoops up urban centers (Long Branch, Asbury Park) and leaves the hinterland in Chris Smith's district

I suppose you know all of this, actually, so I'm curious why you think it would be competitive.

I do know some, but I'm thinking if the blue collar towns of South Amboy, Sayreville and South River's rightward trend lately to Trump can cause it to be competitive.

Oh certainly, they are a lot Trumpier than the rest of the district, but I think they were already voting pretty Republican and they don’t have enough people to move the needle more than a few points.

[TML]

Also note that this area is almost all urban, which means that although the majority of its population is white, most of these white people have higher education, increasing their likelihood of voting Democratic.

[Smash255]

Yes, Frank Pallone (my congressman), represents a fairly moderate to liberal Jersey Shore (center-right Monmouth) and Middlesex industrial middle class towns and inner cities (New Brunswick, Perth Amboy). Why is it never competitive?

The closest the district has been on the Presidential level since 2000 was Kerry by 14 in 2004, why would it be competitive?

[Brittain33]

Also note that this area is almost all urban, which means that although the majority of its population is white, most of these white people have higher education, increasing their likelihood of voting Democratic.

There's more old suburban territory there than urban tbh. The cities (New Brunswick, Asbury Park) are small.