What is going on with this 538 "map" of the projected non-white vote?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I can't figure out what sort of model they are using here to come up with something so ridiculous.

[Gustaf]

If you read the article they explain and it and also note themselves why it is ridiculous.

They just compute a uniform swing based on national discrepancy without doing any calculation on subgroups. So a 95% white district in the South remains Republican in the projection because its vote is so Republican now. In reality of course the few black people there would vote Democrat. I imagine a non-white only map would be almost exclusively Democratic.

[RI]

If you read the article they explain and it and also note themselves why it is ridiculous.

They just compute a uniform swing based on national discrepancy without doing any calculation on subgroups. So a 95% white district in the South remains Republican in the projection because its vote is so Republican now. In reality of course the few black people there would vote Democrat. I imagine a non-white only map would be almost exclusively Democratic.

R's might still win some Cuban/Vietnamese-heavy districts, possibly some Native American-heavy districts depending on the tribe, some Mormon districts, and possibly some of the Upper Plains states where minorities are often oil workers/somewhat more conservative.

[Gustaf]

If you read the article they explain and it and also note themselves why it is ridiculous.

They just compute a uniform swing based on national discrepancy without doing any calculation on subgroups. So a 95% white district in the South remains Republican in the projection because its vote is so Republican now. In reality of course the few black people there would vote Democrat. I imagine a non-white only map would be almost exclusively Democratic.

R's might still win some Cuban/Vietnamese-heavy districts, possibly some Native American-heavy districts depending on the tribe, some Mormon districts, and possibly some of the Upper Plains states where minorities are often oil workers/somewhat more conservative.

Yeah I'm not saying there wouldn't be a single districts but I can't imagine there would be more than a handful.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

If you read the article they explain and it and also note themselves why it is ridiculous.

They just compute a uniform swing based on national discrepancy without doing any calculation on subgroups. So a 95% white district in the South remains Republican in the projection because its vote is so Republican now. In reality of course the few black people there would vote Democrat. I imagine a non-white only map would be almost exclusively Democratic.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-only-men-voted-only-women-only-nonwhite-voters/

Okay I read through it quickly before and found the explanation a bit vague but didn't see that they clarified the methodology somewhat in the notes.

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So in other words they are assuming whites and non-whites both deviate from the national average for their "group" at the same rate in each congressional district ... -_-

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

If you read the article they explain and it and also note themselves why it is ridiculous.

They just compute a uniform swing based on national discrepancy without doing any calculation on subgroups. So a 95% white district in the South remains Republican in the proujection because its vote is so Republican now. In reality of course the few black people there would vote Democrat. I imagine a non-white only map would be almost exclusively Democratic.

R's might still win some Cuban/Vietnamese-heavy districts, possibly some Native American-heavy districts depending on the tribe, some Mormon districts, and possibly some of the Upper Plains states where minorities are often oil workers/somewhat more conservative.

Only if they comprise the majority of NHW voters in said districts, and even then it’s a stretch. The majority of younger Vietnamese Americans do not support the GOP.

[RI]

If you read the article they explain and it and also note themselves why it is ridiculous.

They just compute a uniform swing based on national discrepancy without doing any calculation on subgroups. So a 95% white district in the South remains Republican in the proujection because its vote is so Republican now. In reality of course the few black people there would vote Democrat. I imagine a non-white only map would be almost exclusively Democratic.

R's might still win some Cuban/Vietnamese-heavy districts, possibly some Native American-heavy districts depending on the tribe, some Mormon districts, and possibly some of the Upper Plains states where minorities are often oil workers/somewhat more conservative.

Only if they comprise the majority of NHW voters in said districts, and even then it’s a stretch. The majority of younger Vietnamese Americans do not support the GOP.

Trump has >60% approval among Vietnamese overall.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

If you read the article they explain and it and also note themselves why it is ridiculous.

They just compute a uniform swing based on national discrepancy without doing any calculation on subgroups. So a 95% white district in the South remains Republican in the proujection because its vote is so Republican now. In reality of course the few black people there would vote Democrat. I imagine a non-white only map would be almost exclusively Democratic.

R's might still win some Cuban/Vietnamese-heavy districts, possibly some Native American-heavy districts depending on the tribe, some Mormon districts, and possibly some of the Upper Plains states where minorities are often oil workers/somewhat more conservative.

Only if they comprise the majority of NHW voters in said districts, and even then it’s a stretch. The majority of younger Vietnamese Americans do not support the GOP.

Trump has >60% approval among Vietnamese overall.

Are there any Congressional districts where the majority/plurality of Non-Hispanic White voters are Viet (e.g. Southern California)? I know there are a couple in South Florida for Cubans.