Is Florida turning in to a Tilt D swing state

[TML]

The future of the GOP looks a lot like this fast-growing community in Florida

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/06/18/florida-senior-citizens-vote-election-2018-218758

Wow, Senior Citizens make up the R base in Florida National Politics?! WOAH!

To be honest, this article is well constructed but tells a story we all(hopefully all, we are on a political forum) know. Latinos, especially Cuban Americans, are moving to the Democratic party up and down the ballot, while retirees are moving into the state, keeping it a tossup. Florida appears to be a state that will be in limbo for some time, as the flow has been constant on both sides. There is no growing metropolis like Phoenix to finally tip the balance, nor is there a rural shift that can occur like in the Rust Belt. Turnout is the only way to win in Florida.

According to an analysis by a prominent Democratic strategist in FL, both turnout and managing margins are needed to get a Democratic victory. This can be seen by the decisive factors in the (narrow) Democratic losses this decade:

2010: Insufficient turnout in Democratic base counties
2014: Increased Republican margins in Northern FL
2016: Increased Republican margins in suburban/exurban counties surrounding I-4 corridor

[Burke Bro]

I don’t think so. The influx of retirees will keep the state competitive for years to come.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Florida is a swing state, but it's not the tipping point race, its a battleground state.  And in 2016 showed this, when Hillary was supposed to win it.

[RINO Tom]

The future of the GOP looks a lot like this fast-growing community in Florida

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/06/18/florida-senior-citizens-vote-election-2018-218758

Wow, Senior Citizens make up the R base in Florida National Politics?! WOAH!

To be honest, this article is well constructed but tells a story we all(hopefully all, we are on a political forum) know. Latinos, especially Cuban Americans, are moving to the Democratic party up and down the ballot, while retirees are moving into the state, keeping it a tossup. Florida appears to be a state that will be in limbo for some time, as the flow has been constant on both sides. There is no growing metropolis like Phoenix to finally tip the balance, nor is there a rural shift that can occur like in the Rust Belt. Turnout is the only way to win in Florida.

I know, I know, trends are the name of the game now a days, but doesn't the Phoenix area still vote roughly even with the rest of the state?  It's not like it's an overly Democratic metro area that is finally outvoting the usually GOP rural areas (which, in AZ, are hardly "usually GOP").

[ON Progressive]

The future of the GOP looks a lot like this fast-growing community in Florida

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/06/18/florida-senior-citizens-vote-election-2018-218758

Wow, Senior Citizens make up the R base in Florida National Politics?! WOAH!

To be honest, this article is well constructed but tells a story we all(hopefully all, we are on a political forum) know. Latinos, especially Cuban Americans, are moving to the Democratic party up and down the ballot, while retirees are moving into the state, keeping it a tossup. Florida appears to be a state that will be in limbo for some time, as the flow has been constant on both sides. There is no growing metropolis like Phoenix to finally tip the balance, nor is there a rural shift that can occur like in the Rust Belt. Turnout is the only way to win in Florida.

I know, I know, trends are the name of the game now a days, but doesn't the Phoenix area still vote roughly even with the rest of the state?  It's not like it's an overly Democratic metro area that is finally outvoting the usually GOP rural areas (which, in AZ, are hardly "usually GOP").

It does. The Phoenix MSA voted Trump by 4.1%, which is slightly to the right of the state as a whole.  Not surprising that it's pretty even with the rest of the state given that it's just over 2/3rds of the state population.

[Young Conservative]

Honestly, Arizona seems more likely at this point.

[Skill and Chance]

Honestly, Arizona seems more likely at this point.

Yes, Arizona looks like it's about to pull a reverse Wisconsin in this midterm.  As for Florida, if anything it's moving right between the flood of retirees and Trump holding more of the Hispanic vote than anyone expected he could.  I actually think Florida could be a GOP base state again in 10-15 years if this keeps up.  Since it became competitive in the mid 1990's, a substantial portion of the Dem base in Florida has been retirees born in the 1910's-early 30's who remember FDR.  Their time in Florida is drawing to a close.

[Virginiá]

Yes, Arizona looks like it's about to pull a reverse Wisconsin in this midterm.  As for Florida, if anything it's moving right between the flood of retirees and Trump holding more of the Hispanic vote than anyone expected he could.  I actually think Florida could be a GOP base state again in 10-15 years if this keeps up.  Since it became competitive in the mid 1990's, a substantial portion of the Dem base in Florida has been retirees born in the 1910's-early 30's who remember FDR.  Their time in Florida is drawing to a close.

I don't understand - Democrats don't rely on those voters much because they are all almost gone. Someone born in 1930 is going to be almost 90 years old now. That is an incredibly small part of the electorate, and when you look at how Republican-leaning the 65+ age group is in FL, it's pretty clear Democrats don't rely on them. The Democratic base in Florida is similar to other states - Millennials + minorities, with a decently large age gap.

Highly doubtful Florida becomes another reliable Republican state. Republicans have retirees, but they won't be around forever, and there is enough growth among FL Millennials and minorities to counteract the pro-R trends for the time being. And then 20-30 years from now, Republicans will have to deal with a situation where many older Millennials are getting close to retiring. All bets are off once Millennials move into the 45-64 age group en masse.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, Arizona looks like it's about to pull a reverse Wisconsin in this midterm.  As for Florida, if anything it's moving right between the flood of retirees and Trump holding more of the Hispanic vote than anyone expected he could.  I actually think Florida could be a GOP base state again in 10-15 years if this keeps up.  Since it became competitive in the mid 1990's, a substantial portion of the Dem base in Florida has been retirees born in the 1910's-early 30's who remember FDR.  Their time in Florida is drawing to a close.

I don't understand - Democrats don't rely on those voters much because they are all almost gone. Someone born in 1930 is going to be almost 90 years old now. That is an incredibly small part of the electorate, and when you look at how Republican-leaning the 65+ age group is in FL, it's pretty clear Democrats don't rely on them. The Democratic base in Florida is similar to other states - Millennials + minorities, with a decently large age gap.

Highly doubtful Florida becomes another reliable Republican state. Republicans have retirees, but they won't be around forever, and there is enough growth among FL Millennials and minorities to counteract the pro-R trends for the time being. And then 20-30 years from now, Republicans will have to deal with a situation where many older Millennials are getting close to retiring. All bets are off once Millennials move into the 45-64 age group en masse.

It's a tilt GOP state, but glacially, it will vote for Bill Nelson.  The Dems don't really need FL in order to win the EC college.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yes, Arizona looks like it's about to pull a reverse Wisconsin in this midterm.  As for Florida, if anything it's moving right between the flood of retirees and Trump holding more of the Hispanic vote than anyone expected he could.  I actually think Florida could be a GOP base state again in 10-15 years if this keeps up.  Since it became competitive in the mid 1990's, a substantial portion of the Dem base in Florida has been retirees born in the 1910's-early 30's who remember FDR.  Their time in Florida is drawing to a close.

I don't understand - Democrats don't rely on those voters much because they are all almost gone. Someone born in 1930 is going to be almost 90 years old now. That is an incredibly small part of the electorate, and when you look at how Republican-leaning the 65+ age group is in FL, it's pretty clear Democrats don't rely on them. The Democratic base in Florida is similar to other states - Millennials + minorities, with a decently large age gap.

Highly doubtful Florida becomes another reliable Republican state. Republicans have retirees, but they won't be around forever, and there is enough growth among FL Millennials and minorities to counteract the pro-R trends for the time being. And then 20-30 years from now, Republicans will have to deal with a situation where many older Millennials are getting close to retiring. All bets are off once Millennials move into the 45-64 age group en masse.

It's a tilt GOP state, but glacially, it will vote for Bill Nelson.  The Dems don't really need FL in order to win the EC college.

Florida is a good fail-safe though. It's worth even more than Wisconsin and Michigan combined.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, Arizona looks like it's about to pull a reverse Wisconsin in this midterm.  As for Florida, if anything it's moving right between the flood of retirees and Trump holding more of the Hispanic vote than anyone expected he could.  I actually think Florida could be a GOP base state again in 10-15 years if this keeps up.  Since it became competitive in the mid 1990's, a substantial portion of the Dem base in Florida has been retirees born in the 1910's-early 30's who remember FDR.  Their time in Florida is drawing to a close.

I don't understand - Democrats don't rely on those voters much because they are all almost gone. Someone born in 1930 is going to be almost 90 years old now. That is an incredibly small part of the electorate, and when you look at how Republican-leaning the 65+ age group is in FL, it's pretty clear Democrats don't rely on them. The Democratic base in Florida is similar to other states - Millennials + minorities, with a decently large age gap.

Highly doubtful Florida becomes another reliable Republican state. Republicans have retirees, but they won't be around forever, and there is enough growth among FL Millennials and minorities to counteract the pro-R trends for the time being. And then 20-30 years from now, Republicans will have to deal with a situation where many older Millennials are getting close to retiring. All bets are off once Millennials move into the 45-64 age group en masse.

It's a tilt GOP state, but glacially, it will vote for Bill Nelson.  The Dems don't really need FL in order to win the EC college.

Florida is a good fail-safe though. It's worth even more than Wisconsin and Michigan combined.

I forgot about the Cuban-Russian ties, and how it ties into Graham winning and Trump coziness with Kremlin will hand FL to Graham on a silver platter with Ron DeSantis as the nominee😁

[Sumner 1868]

As retirement becomes less and less affordable over time Florida will probably be a good state for the GOP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nelson and Dems for Gov have won almost every poll out there thats not survey monkey polls, out there.

The face of Putin in the Oval office doesnt sit well for Floridians and the Cuban community

[Greatblueheron]

Florida is a Republican-leaning, Swing State, and will remain so for the foreseeable future, due to the influx of Wealthy, White, Retirees, counteracting the growing minority population.

[President Johnson]

Florida is a Republican-leaning, Swing State, and will remain so for the foreseeable future, due to the influx of Wealthy, White, Retirees, counteracting the growing minority population.

Sadly this one. It's winnable for Democrats in presidential and senatorial/gubernatorial elections, but Democrats have a better shot at the Rust Belt or, at a long shot, in Arizona. I'm pretty sure Arizona will vote to the left of Florida in 2024, if not 2020 already.

[Zaybay]

Florida is a Republican-leaning, Swing State, and will remain so for the foreseeable future, due to the influx of Wealthy, White, Retirees, counteracting the growing minority population.

My thoughts exactly. This is one of the only states I would say will trend R in the foreseeable future. The amount of retirees going there outweighs the voter turnout and growth of Hispanics. Not to mention the Cubans always messing us up.

Lean R in the future, can still be won, but it wont be easy.

[ajc0918]

As retirement becomes less and less affordable over time Florida will probably be a good state for the GOP.

The GOP has had complete control of Florida for 20 years now so what do you mean?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

To win presidency, the Dems need MI,PA, WI, CO & Va. To win control of Congress, alot of FL GOP seats are leaning towards the Dems and it is the key state to win the House and Senate in 2018.