Which House seats are most vulnerable to falling to redistricting past 2020?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

An interesting case to consider (fairly likely in my view) is that SCOTUS bans egregious districts linking multiple MSAs or stretching 100's of miles along roads for partisan reasons but otherwise leaves things in the hands of the legislatures.  Perhaps they impose a KY style unnecessary county splits rule nationwide.  Who would be most endangered with that?  Seems like that would save Cooper in TN-05, but definitely eliminate 1 Dem in MD.  Ohio would get meaningfully better for Democrats and Illinois for Republicans.  Texas would be interesting if they were required to keep as many districts within Harris, Travis, etc. as possible, but also got the go ahead for the all of Brownsville/McAllen district in the far south. 

This of course would prevent the Illinois legislature from cleaving Will County into 6 Congressional districts.

They could just make a seat with all of Will County and parts of Bloom Township. It would lean D but be vulnerable in a wave year (since minority turnout would be key for holding such a seat).

[Brittain33]

An interesting case to consider (fairly likely in my view) is that SCOTUS bans egregious districts linking multiple MSAs or stretching 100's of miles along roads for partisan reasons but otherwise leaves things in the hands of the legislatures.  Perhaps they impose a KY style unnecessary county splits rule nationwide.  Who would be most endangered with that?  Seems like that would save Cooper in TN-05, but definitely eliminate 1 Dem in MD.  Ohio would get meaningfully better for Democrats and Illinois for Republicans.  Texas would be interesting if they were required to keep as many districts within Harris, Travis, etc. as possible, but also got the go ahead for the all of Brownsville/McAllen district in the far south.  

This of course would prevent the Illinois legislature from cleaving Will County into 6 Congressional districts.

Yeah, any court decisions regulating gerrymandering would give Illinois more of a bipartisan map.

[krazen1211]

They could just make a seat with all of Will County and parts of Bloom Township. It would lean D but be vulnerable in a wave year (since minority turnout would be key for holding such a seat).

Yes, they could. All redistricting decisions domino into others. This would disconnect Kankakee county from Cook County districts, force the contraction of other districts into Cook County, and create something similar to the old Judy Biggert 13th district in Dupage County.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

They could just make a seat with all of Will County and parts of Bloom Township. It would lean D but be vulnerable in a wave year (since minority turnout would be key for holding such a seat).

Yes, they could. All redistricting decisions domino into others. This would This would disconnect Kankakee county from Cook County districts, force the contraction of other districts into Cook County, and create something similar to the old Judy Biggert 13th district in Dupage County.

How would an all-Lake County CD vote?

[krazen1211]

They could just make a seat with all of Will County and parts of Bloom Township. It would lean D but be vulnerable in a wave year (since minority turnout would be key for holding such a seat).

Yes, they could. All redistricting decisions domino into others. This would disconnect Kankakee county from Cook County districts, force the contraction of other districts into Cook County, and create something similar to the old Judy Biggert 13th district in Dupage County.

How would an all-Lake County CD vote?

Probably for the Republicans in 2012 and 14 and Democrats after.

Of course, Cook County is 5.2m in population. Illinois districts will have 800k in population in 2022. Lake County + 100k is a district in 2022. Will County + 100k is the same. That leaves a mere 6 districts inside Cook County when the prior legislature decided that such a county should have 8 congressional districts and currently has 8 Democrats elected to Congress. The legislature united parts of Cook County with other parts of the state that are far away.

[KingSweden]

An interesting case to consider (fairly likely in my view) is that SCOTUS bans egregious districts linking multiple MSAs or stretching 100's of miles along roads for partisan reasons but otherwise leaves things in the hands of the legislatures.  Perhaps they impose a KY style unnecessary county splits rule nationwide.  Who would be most endangered with that?  Seems like that would save Cooper in TN-05, but definitely eliminate 1 Dem in MD.  Ohio would get meaningfully better for Democrats and Illinois for Republicans.  Texas would be interesting if they were required to keep as many districts within Harris, Travis, etc. as possible, but also got the go ahead for the all of Brownsville/McAllen district in the far south.  

This would be the best outcome, IMO. Maps that maintain communities of interest, then let the chips fall where they may.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

They could just make a seat with all of Will County and parts of Bloom Township. It would lean D but be vulnerable in a wave year (since minority turnout would be key for holding such a seat).

Yes, they could. All redistricting decisions domino into others. This would disconnect Kankakee county from Cook County districts, force the contraction of other districts into Cook County, and create something similar to the old Judy Biggert 13th district in Dupage County.

How would an all-Lake County CD vote?

Probably for the Republicans in 2012 and 14 and Democrats after.

Of course, Cook County is 5.2m in population. Illinois districts will have 800k in population in 2022. Lake County + 100k is a district in 2022. Will County + 100k is the same. That leaves a mere 6 districts inside Cook County when the prior legislature decided that such a county should have 8 congressional districts and currently has 8 Democrats elected to Congress. The legislature united parts of Cook County with other parts of the state that are far away.

5k minus 6 districts of 800k still leaves us with 200k left over. You could see a seat being drawn that has most of the most heavily D parts of DuPage, and the rest of it in a seat with Schuamburg.

[Nyvin]

They could just make a seat with all of Will County and parts of Bloom Township. It would lean D but be vulnerable in a wave year (since minority turnout would be key for holding such a seat).

Yes, they could. All redistricting decisions domino into others. This would disconnect Kankakee county from Cook County districts, force the contraction of other districts into Cook County, and create something similar to the old Judy Biggert 13th district in Dupage County.

How would an all-Lake County CD vote?

Probably for the Republicans in 2012 and 14 and Democrats after.

Of course, Cook County is 5.2m in population. Illinois districts will have 800k in population in 2022. Lake County + 100k is a district in 2022. Will County + 100k is the same. That leaves a mere 6 districts inside Cook County when the prior legislature decided that such a county should have 8 congressional districts and currently has 8 Democrats elected to Congress. The legislature united parts of Cook County with other parts of the state that are far away.

12.7mil / 17 = 747k

Unless you're suggesting that in the next two years Illinois gains around 1.3mil people.

[krazen1211]

They could just make a seat with all of Will County and parts of Bloom Township. It would lean D but be vulnerable in a wave year (since minority turnout would be key for holding such a seat).

Yes, they could. All redistricting decisions domino into others. This would disconnect Kankakee county from Cook County districts, force the contraction of other districts into Cook County, and create something similar to the old Judy Biggert 13th district in Dupage County.

How would an all-Lake County CD vote?

Probably for the Republicans in 2012 and 14 and Democrats after.

Of course, Cook County is 5.2m in population. Illinois districts will have 800k in population in 2022. Lake County + 100k is a district in 2022. Will County + 100k is the same. That leaves a mere 6 districts inside Cook County when the prior legislature decided that such a county should have 8 congressional districts and currently has 8 Democrats elected to Congress. The legislature united parts of Cook County with other parts of the state that are far away.

12.7mil / 17 = 747k

Unless you're suggesting that in the next two years Illinois gains around 1.3mil people.

I merely rounded the figures.

Slight adjustments change little. Your figure states that Cook County shall receive almost exactly 7 congressional districts based on population allocation. Placing 7 districts wholly within the county would prohibit the legislature's prior goal of giving Cook County control of 8 Congressional districts. If portions of Cook County are being used to fortify Will and Lake County districts as previously proposed that would even further reduce the influence of Cook County to 6 or at most 6.5 districts.

[Nyvin]

Considering the two VRA districts needed in south Chicago, I don't see how they can add the ~80-100k Will needs from Cook county.  If Will is getting it's own district then that means moving the two BVAP majority districts directly west into Dupage somehow to avoid packing.   They really can't go north since there's the hispanic and other black district up there. 

Lake can get it's own district and a bit left over from Cook, that doesn't change anything.   IL-16 is going to be dismantled anyway and IL-14 will just move west, easy.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Considering the two VRA districts needed in south Chicago, I don't see how they can add the ~80-100k Will needs from Cook county.  If Will is getting it's own district then that means moving the two BVAP majority districts directly west into Dupage somehow to avoid packing.   They really can't go north since there's the hispanic and other black district up there. 

Lake can get it's own district and a bit left over from Cook, that doesn't change anything.   IL-16 is going to be dismantled anyway and IL-14 will just move west, easy.

The Black seats might have to take in part of the North Shore. That would have a ripple effect, affecting seats elsewhere.