NY-24: Balter emerges victorious to face Katko

[wesmoorenerd]

Quick writeup for those not caught up:

NY-24 is a district I have a bizarre sort of interest in. It's one of exactly two Democratic leaning districts (by PVI) that the Republican is usually considered to be at least a decent favorite in. The other, of course, is the bane of CA Democrats' existence, David Valadao's CA-21. Unlike CA-21, which is an uphill battle because of an unusually strong incumbent, weak challengers, and demographic challenges that have led to low turnout, NY-24's issues seem to lie more with the Democrats themselves. Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner was the Democrats' A-tier potential recruit here, but in one of the biggest missed opportunities of this cycle, she decided not to run (and is now pursuing a quixotic third party bid for Governor). In her stead, it looked like the mantle of Democratic candidate would fall to Dana Balter, a Syracuse professor and progressive. Balter quickly became the favorite of the local party committees, but this didn't last. The DCCC jumped in and propped up Juanita Perez Williams, a former Syracuse mayoral candidate - the classic national vs. local Dems paradigm. Flash forward to today - despite being the underdog in polling, Balter won 63-37. And thus Balter became the Democratic nominee.

The Dems' recruitment and primary battles are half the story of how this race came to be a statistical anomaly: the other half lies in the Republican incumbent, John Katko. Katko appears to be certainly one of the stronger incumbents in the House right now. In office since 2015, Katko first gained fame for fighting organized crime with the US Attorney's office in Syracuse. Katko won big in 2014 over incumbent Democrat Dan Maffei - very big, in one of the largest victories of any challenger that cycle. Since then, Katko has gained a reputation as a prolific, bipartisan, moderate, and effective legislator. A tough order for an ambitious challenger in any district. Unsurprisingly, he won reelection by a comfortable margin in 2016.

New York's 24th district is located in Upstate New York and is anchored by the city of Syracuse. The district voted for Obama twice and for Clinton by 4 points.

That's just a rough overview. With all of this in mind, which way is NY-24 going? Will the district stay true to its light blue record and go for the progressive professor Balter? Or will the popular and prolific Katko overpower the opposition with his strong incumbency advantage? I'll be honest, I would've rated this one Likely R before tonight, but Balter does seem like a strong enough candidate that it could warrant a Lean R rating. Thoughts?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

LOL at the DCCC pushing some candidate who bombed hard in the Syracuse mayor election to run after they said they wouldn't.

[wesmoorenerd]

LOL at the DCCC pushing some candidate who bombed hard in the Syracuse mayor election to run after they said they wouldn't.

Such a DCCC move. Perez Williams really wasn't a good candidate, and stood no real chance against Katko. Balter is a rare example of a candidate that's both stronger in the GE and more progressive. D-trip almost blew this one.

I'd also like to point out how awkward it must be that they have a losing candidate as part of their Red to Blue program... has that happened so far this cycle?

[Jeppe]

LOL at the DCCC pushing some candidate who bombed hard in the Syracuse mayor election to run after they said they wouldn't.

Such a DCCC move. Perez Williams really wasn't a good candidate, and stood no real chance against Katko. Balter is a rare example of a candidate that's both stronger in the GE and more progressive. D-trip almost blew this one.

I'd also like to point out how awkward it must be that they have a losing candidate as part of their Red to Blue program... has that happened so far this cycle?

Brad Ashford

[136or142]

Those on the Battlestar Galactica didn't think much of Baltar.

[Antonio the Sixth]

loldccc

If the Democratic establishment gets a clue and actually bother to support Balter, I'm sure she has a chance. Of course that's a big if, given how petty and stupid these people are.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

LOL at the DCCC pushing some candidate who bombed hard in the Syracuse mayor election to run after they said they wouldn't.

Such a DCCC move. Perez Williams really wasn't a good candidate, and stood no real chance against Katko. Balter is a rare example of a candidate that's both stronger in the GE and more progressive. D-trip almost blew this one.

I'd also like to point out how awkward it must be that they have a losing candidate as part of their Red to Blue program... has that happened so far this cycle?

The DCCC wanted Stephanie Miner, then Chris Ryan, but they chose not to run.  Perez Williams was no one's first choice (inside or outside the establishment) was never considered a top-tier candidate nor was this a top pickup opportunity.  Perez Williams was supposed to be wave insurance, but that's about it. 

The more significant defeat was in NY-1 where Kate Browning (a solid recruit for NY-1 who would've made the race Tilt D) lost her primary to some rich dude named Perry Gershon, so the race is now Lean R (albeit closer to Tilt R than Likely R)

[Thank you for being a friend...]

The D recruiting in NY was abysmal this cycle.

[Oryxslayer]

The problem for dems here isn't recruiting, its that Katko's popularity means he is on the fast track to becoming the next Reichart. The good thing for the Dems though is the 2020 redistricting. NY-22 is going to be the cut seat, and it getting carved up will impact the rest of the region. NY-23 for instance probably will get Binghampton. The result here is that Syracuse probably will get custody of Ithaca, and that isn't a seat Katko can ever hope to win.

[Maxwell]

Lean R. Balter seems okay but for some reason Katko is wildly popular here.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lean R. Balter seems okay but for some reason Katko is wildly popular here.

[PAK Man]

Likely R. Katko has easily trounced two hyped-up Democrats (including easily beating Dan Maffei in 2014) and Balter doesn't seem like she'll be any different.

[136or142]

LOL at the DCCC pushing some candidate who bombed hard in the Syracuse mayor election to run after they said they wouldn't.

Such a DCCC move. Perez Williams really wasn't a good candidate, and stood no real chance against Katko. Balter is a rare example of a candidate that's both stronger in the GE and more progressive. D-trip almost blew this one.

I'd also like to point out how awkward it must be that they have a losing candidate as part of their Red to Blue program... has that happened so far this cycle?

The DCCC wanted Stephanie Miner, then Chris Ryan, but they chose not to run.  Perez Williams was no one's first choice (inside or outside the establishment) was never considered a top-tier candidate nor was this a top pickup opportunity.  Perez Williams was supposed to be wave insurance, but that's about it. 

The more significant defeat was in NY-1 where Kate Browning (a solid recruit for NY-1 who would've made the race Tilt D) lost her primary to some rich dude named Perry Gershon, so the race is now Lean R (albeit closer to Tilt R than Likely R)

The rich dude also won in the Maryland 6th district.  I'd say this was the first bad night for women candidates' but then there was the Crowley defeat which offset that slightly.

[136or142]

The D recruiting in NY was abysmal this cycle.

Anthony Brindisi seems to be a very strong candidate.  Max Rose also seems to be a strong candidate but his ability to win probably got a lot narrower.  Max Della Pia might be decent, but he seems to be milqtoast.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The D recruiting in NY was abysmal this cycle.

Anthony Brindisi seems to be a very strong candidate.  Max Rose also seems to be a strong candidate but his ability to win probably got a lot narrower.  Max Della Pia might be decent, but he seems to be milqtoast.

Nah, Max Rose has got this.