WA-SEN NPI: Cantwell +16
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  WA-SEN NPI: Cantwell +16		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: WA-SEN NPI: Cantwell +16  (Read 1298 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: May 24, 2018, 03:16:38 PM »
https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2018/05/senator-maria-cantwell-enjoys-a-robust-lead-over-susan-hutchison-new-npi-poll-finds.html

Cantwell 52
Hutchison 36
Not sure 12

For reference:

Six years ago, when Cantwell last sought reelection, four surveys taken in the first seven months of 2012 consistently put her support at around 51%. Two were conducted by NPI’s pollster, while two were conducted by SurveyUSA.

In her last campaign, Cantwell went on to win by a double-digit margin, securing 60.45% of the vote statewide, while Bumgartner obtained only 39.55%.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2018, 03:19:04 PM »
Safe D
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2018, 03:26:59 PM »
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2018, 03:29:32 PM »
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2018, 03:32:00 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 24, 2018, 03:29:35 PM
Seemingly popular incumbent underperforming 2012 numbers in her first poll? Doesn't bode well for the vulnerable Democratic senators.
Not sure if trolling...or just stupid.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2018, 03:36:06 PM »
Quote from: MassGuy on May 24, 2018, 03:32:00 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 24, 2018, 03:29:35 PM
Seemingly popular incumbent underperforming 2012 numbers in her first poll? Doesn't bode well for the vulnerable Democratic senators.
Not sure if trolling...or just stupid.

2018 is a better environment for Democrats than 2012, when Cantwell won by 21 points. Why is she only winning by 16 points now? Obviously she is in no danger of losing, but this survey indicates that states are less inclined to reelect popular senators by landslides and that polarization is increasing. Which doesn't bode well for the Democratic senators running in heavily Republican states.
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« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2018, 03:38:06 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 24, 2018, 03:36:06 PM
Quote from: MassGuy on May 24, 2018, 03:32:00 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 24, 2018, 03:29:35 PM
Seemingly popular incumbent underperforming 2012 numbers in her first poll? Doesn't bode well for the vulnerable Democratic senators.
Not sure if trolling...or just stupid.

2018 is a better environment for Democrats than 2012, when Cantwell won by 21 points. Why is she only winning by 16 points now? Obviously she is in no danger of losing, but this survey indicates that states are less inclined to reelect popular senators by landslides and that polarization is increasing. Which doesn't bode well for the Democratic senators running in heavily Republican states.
It's a five-point difference in a solid D race. Very little relation to races in MO/IN/ND.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2018, 03:38:34 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 24, 2018, 03:36:06 PM
Quote from: MassGuy on May 24, 2018, 03:32:00 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 24, 2018, 03:29:35 PM
Seemingly popular incumbent underperforming 2012 numbers in her first poll? Doesn't bode well for the vulnerable Democratic senators.
Not sure if trolling...or just stupid.

2018 is a better environment for Democrats than 2012, when Cantwell won by 21 points. Why is she only winning by 16 points now? Obviously she is in no danger of losing, but this survey indicates that states are less inclined to reelect popular senators by landslides and that polarization is increasing. Which doesn't bode well for the Democratic senators running in heavily Republican states.

Dude, it's May. And she is doing better than she was at this point in 2012. Also, not every Senate race is the same.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2018, 03:39:39 PM »
Quote from: OntarioProgressive on May 24, 2018, 03:38:34 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 24, 2018, 03:36:06 PM
Quote from: MassGuy on May 24, 2018, 03:32:00 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 24, 2018, 03:29:35 PM
Seemingly popular incumbent underperforming 2012 numbers in her first poll? Doesn't bode well for the vulnerable Democratic senators.
Not sure if trolling...or just stupid.

2018 is a better environment for Democrats than 2012, when Cantwell won by 21 points. Why is she only winning by 16 points now? Obviously she is in no danger of losing, but this survey indicates that states are less inclined to reelect popular senators by landslides and that polarization is increasing. Which doesn't bode well for the Democratic senators running in heavily Republican states.

Dude, it's May. And she is doing better than she was at this point in 2012. Also, not every Senate race is the same.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2018, 03:51:46 PM »
Polls tend to understate Democratic support in WA, fwiw
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Blackacre
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« Reply #10 on: May 24, 2018, 04:01:16 PM »
Safe D, but its good to have that info anyway.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: May 24, 2018, 04:01:51 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on May 24, 2018, 03:51:46 PM
Polls tend to understate Democratic support in WA, fwiw

It's raining in NoWA, Cantwell is doomed.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #12 on: May 24, 2018, 04:08:06 PM »
Why did someone waste time polling this

16 is kinda weak but it’s obviously safe. If she’s only winning by 16 on Election Day Rossi probably wins WA-08 though
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #13 on: May 24, 2018, 05:06:05 PM »
Safe D obviously, but still closer than I expected.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #14 on: May 24, 2018, 05:22:49 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on May 24, 2018, 04:01:51 PM
Quote from: KingSweden on May 24, 2018, 03:51:46 PM
Polls tend to understate Democratic support in WA, fwiw

It's raining in NoWA, Cantwell is doomed.
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#gravelgang #lessiglad
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« Reply #15 on: May 24, 2018, 09:29:15 PM »
Quote from: UncleSam on May 24, 2018, 04:08:06 PM
Why did someone waste time polling this
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Xing
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« Reply #16 on: May 24, 2018, 10:34:22 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on May 24, 2018, 03:51:46 PM
Polls tend to understate Democratic support in WA, fwiw

Yeah, this, and polling of safe races often understimate the eventual margin. But, whatever helps the "Blue Wave is dead/#UnskewTheBlue" narrative, I guess.
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Seattle
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« Reply #17 on: May 24, 2018, 11:18:51 PM »
36% represents the likely ceiling for Hutchinson.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #18 on: May 24, 2018, 11:23:37 PM »
Cantwell probably wins 60-40 or 61-39.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #19 on: May 24, 2018, 11:27:46 PM »
Quote from: Invisible Obama on May 24, 2018, 11:23:37 PM
Cantwell probably wins 60-40 or 61-39.

And that’s her ceiling. Republicans have a solid floor at around that point.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #20 on: May 25, 2018, 01:33:00 PM »
Safe D, Cantwell wins by 20%
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