CT-Tremont: Generic R Leads Generic D by 18

[Free Bird]

http://www.tremontpublicadvisors.net/news/2018/4/8/republicans-open-up-lead-in-connecticut-governors-race

[Free Bird]

But muh Trump toxicity

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ruh roh!

[Coastal Elitist]

http://www.tremontpublicadvisors.net/news/2018/4/8/republicans-open-up-lead-in-connecticut-governors-race

Bit of a misleading title it's Generic R + named Republican candidates, which seems like a really weird way to do a poll.

[MT Treasurer]

Obvious junk. Weird methodology, and there will be no Generic R on the ballot.

[IceSpear]

It wouldn't surprise me if Dems lost CT considering how often governor's races are insulated from the partisan tide, but any poll using "generic" is worthless.

[UncleSam]

Garbage methodology can lead to weird results.

Wouldn’t be remotely surprised if Dems badly underperformed in CT though. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if it started trending a bit R in general honestly, though no where near enough to become competitive on a national scene.

[Maxwell]

candidate quality matters folks.

It would be funny if Republicans lost every toss-up and even Lean R governorship outside of New England but then swept New England (Holding New Hampshire, Maine, Vermont and Massachusetts and picking up Rhode Island and Connecticut). Of course, I feel like Maine is the weakest link there for Repubicans, but it seems possible.

[Xing]

I doubt that it will be at all this lopsided, but why is it so hard to believe that this is a legitimate pick-up opportunity for Republicans?

[Xing]

I doubt that it will be at all this lopsided, but why is it so hard to believe that this is a legitimate pick-up opportunity for Republicans?

Who said it wasn’t (besides MT treasurer)? I’m just mocking the “experts” who have CT at tossup but still think KS is Likely R. And this poll is junk without head-to-heads

It seems a lot of people believe that Republicans can't pick up CT because "muh blue wave", even though gubernatorial races often buck national trends. For the record, I think KS is a Toss-Up as well.

[MT Treasurer]

Solid also believes the race isn’t really competitive. Anyway, I don’t think we can ignore the state’s political leaning or the national environment as major factors just because Malloy might not be that popular anymore. CT is exactly the kind of state where Trump/the national Republican Party is going to drag down GOP candidates across the board, and with increasingly strong polarization in blue states and the Democratic base being a lot more energized than Republicans, it would be foolish to write off Lamont here. If the national environment didn’t matter, would Rick Scott, Paul LePage, Matt Bevin, Sam Brownback, Rick Snyder, John Kasich, etc. all be governors now?

[RC]

Me IRL

On a more serious note, though I can wish it was true, I don't believe Republicans can beat the Democrats (more specifically Lamont) by that huge of a margin. It's not a trustworthy poll imo. However, is it possible for Republicans to win Connecticut by up to about 5 points? I believe so.

[RINO Tom]

Obvious junk. Weird methodology, and there will be no Generic R on the ballot.

The thing is ... any New England Republican nominee is going to be 1,000 times BETTER than Generic R.

[Strudelcutie4427]

If maine strikes down the Ranked Choice garbage, there is a legit shot of every New England state having a Republican Governor

[LimoLiberal]

I don't think a Republican winning in Connecticut this year is particularly unlikely. But this is a horrible poll regardless.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probably safe R pickup, now.

[The Other Castro]

If someone wants to believe a poll like this, fine go ahead, nothing stopping you. This race has always had the potential for high competitiveness, depending on which candidates are nominated by the parties. Some match-ups (ex: Stewart vs. Ganim) could be favored for the Republicans, while others (Lamont vs. Herbst) could be favored for the Democrats. I think the majority of these will yield a competitive race, though with a natural advantage for the Democratic nominee in most of them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Alot of the Senate races are competitive with the Gubernatorial elections, just like in the case of Iowa and New Hamsphire, there is no competitive Senate race, eventhough a Democrat is on the ballot, in Nov.  So, this might be the ones to lean towards the GOPers, this fall.

[Deblano]

But muh Trump toxicity

In this case it's muh Malloy toxicity.