What the hell happened in NY-24 2014?

[Bidenworth2020]

a dem incumbent lost 59-40 in a 57-40 an 49-45 clinton district, and from what i see, there were no major scandals on either side. What happened?

[Tekken_Guy]

It was a pro-GOP year and this blue-collar district is rapidly moving to the right.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Best guess is that basically all of upstate New York other than the Buffalo area swung hard against Cuomo that year, and, given that Maffei only narrowly won in 2012, he got dragged down hard as a result.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Upstate New York is notorious for its wild and unpredictable swings, and in 2014, upstate as a whole swung massively to the GOP that year. Louise Slaughter in the neighboring 25th barely held on by less than half a percentage point against a low profile town supervisor despite the GOP barely investing in the race and Slaughter being a popular incumbent that had been representing the Rochester area for decades.

[Adam Griffin]

Ancestrally GOP area that - like much of the Northeast - probably began voting Democratic at the presidential level during the Clinton era. Some of that transferred downballot over the next few elections, but the lean of the district meant that a GOP win was likely outside of a good year for congressional Dems (Dem wins in '06, '08 & '12; GOP wins otherwise).

The district has now been drifting back toward its ancestral roots given the movement among more rural whites.

[Bidenworth2020]

It was a pro-GOP year and this blue-collar district is rapidly moving to the right.

Blue collar? Onondaga(Syracuse) makes up 80% of the pop. Still tho, you don't see 36 point swings like that with no scandal.

[Ye We Can]

Katko is a very good candidate. There's a reason he hasn't drawn any serious challengers despite his vulnerability on paper.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Upstate New York is notorious for its wild and unpredictable swings, and in 2014, upstate as a whole swung massively to the GOP that year. Louise Slaughter in the neighboring 25th barely held on by less than half a percentage point against a low profile town supervisor despite the GOP barely investing in the race and Slaughter being a popular incumbent that had been representing the Rochester area for decades.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Katko is a very good candidate. There's a reason he hasn't drawn any serious challengers despite his vulnerability on paper.

Dan Maffei was also an exceptionally weak incumbent.

[Landslide Lyndon]

a dem incumbent lost 59-40 in a 57-40 an 49-45 clinton district, and from what i see, there were no major scandals on either side. What happened?

I asked the same question and the answers were weak incumbent, strong challenger, good Republican year.
And yes, I agree with you that these are insufficient answers in what was back then an Obama +17 district and a scandal-free incumbent.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

a dem incumbent lost 59-40 in a 57-40 an 49-45 clinton district, and from what i see, there were no major scandals on either side. What happened?

I asked the same question and the answers were weak incumbent, strong challenger, good Republican year.
And yes, I agree with you that these are insufficient answers in what was back then an Obama +17 district and a scandal-free incumbent.

Maffei really was that weak though; he ran an extremely lazy campaign and was a chronic underperformer in past cycles.

[PAK Man]

According to this article, an ad that accused Katko of leaving a gun near an elementary school was what turned the tide in the race.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ancestrally GOP area that - like much of the Northeast - probably began voting Democratic at the presidential level during the Clinton era. Some of that transferred downballot over the next few elections, but the lean of the district meant that a GOP win was likely outside of a good year for congressional Dems (Dem wins in '06, '08 & '12; GOP wins otherwise).

The district has now been drifting back toward its ancestral roots given the movement among more rural whites.

Was especially poor turnout among minorities the icing on the cake here?

[Adam Griffin]

Ancestrally GOP area that - like much of the Northeast - probably began voting Democratic at the presidential level during the Clinton era. Some of that transferred downballot over the next few elections, but the lean of the district meant that a GOP win was likely outside of a good year for congressional Dems (Dem wins in '06, '08 & '12; GOP wins otherwise).

The district has now been drifting back toward its ancestral roots given the movement among more rural whites.

Was especially poor turnout among minorities the icing on the cake here?

Perhaps. I'll admit that I'm making assumptions here about the performance overall and the historical lean of the district playing a role.

[henster]

Interesting since the SAFE Act was signed things have turned south for Dems in Upstate.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The economy sucks in upstate NY, so they weren't exactly fans of incumbent neoliberal Democrats.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Ancestrally GOP area that - like much of the Northeast - probably began voting Democratic at the presidential level during the Clinton era. Some of that transferred downballot over the next few elections, but the lean of the district meant that a GOP win was likely outside of a good year for congressional Dems (Dem wins in '06, '08 & '12; GOP wins otherwise).

The district has now been drifting back toward its ancestral roots given the movement among more rural whites.

Was especially poor turnout among minorities the icing on the cake here?

I doubt that minorities make more than 5% of the population in the district.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The economy sucks in upstate NY, so they weren't exactly fans of incumbent neoliberal Democrats.

So they elected a Republican who is even more of a neoliberal than the Democrat?  Seems legit

[Landslide Lyndon]

The economy sucks in upstate NY, so they weren't exactly fans of incumbent neoliberal Democrats.

So they elected a Republican who is even more of a neoliberal than the Democrat?  Seems legit

Neoliberalism (whatever the hell that means in jfern's mind) seems to be the root of all evils, whether it's the Armenian Genocide, climate change, or the Star Wars prequels.

[Mr.Phips]

Best guess is that basically all of upstate New York other than the Buffalo area swung hard against Cuomo that year, and, given that Maffei only narrowly won in 2012, he got dragged down hard as a result.

Cuomo still won the district even with Howie Hawkins siphoning off a good 10% of the Dem vote here.  Maffei's margin of loss in what is still a Dem leaning district was the margin of someone who was indicted.  Even John Kerry won this distinct by a good margin.  Any competent Dem incumbent would have held this seat in 2010 and 2014.  Maffei was a horrendous candidate.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Best guess is that basically all of upstate New York other than the Buffalo area swung hard against Cuomo that year, and, given that Maffei only narrowly won in 2012, he got dragged down hard as a result.

Cuomo still won the district even with Howie Hawkins siphoning off a good 10% of the Dem vote here.  Maffei's margin of loss in what is still a Dem leaning district was the margin of someone who was indicted.  Even John Kerry won this distinct by a good margin.  Any competent Dem incumbent would have held this seat in 2010 and 2014.  Maffei was a horrendous candidate.

I know Cuomo won it, but he didn't win it by nearly the margins that Democrats had won it in the recent past.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The economy sucks in upstate NY, so they weren't exactly fans of incumbent neoliberal Democrats.

So they elected a Republican who is even more of a neoliberal than the Democrat?  Seems legit

Neoliberalism (whatever the hell that means in jfern's mind) seems to be the root of all evils, whether it's the Armenian Genocide, climate change, or the Star Wars prequels.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The economy sucks in upstate NY, so they weren't exactly fans of incumbent neoliberal Democrats.

So they elected a Republican who is even more of a neoliberal than the Democrat?  Seems legit

They probably figured that both parties suck on economics and voted for the more pro gun candidate.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Maffei is awkward and uncharismatic but I didn't know about the gun ad against Katko. That could have helped him.