NV-Laxalt Internal: Laxalt +6/+11 against Sisolak/Giunchiglani

[LimoLiberal]

https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/poll-gives-laxalt-advantage-in-nevadas-governor-race/

but muh blue wave!111!!!

[King Lear]

This shows that Dean Heller’s going to win reelection on Laxalt’s coattails.

[Ebsy]

And ignored.

[YE]

I’ll be shocked if this is anywhere near accurate.

[IceSpear]

Internals are always accurate. Just ask Sen. Kirk.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/poll-gives-laxalt-advantage-in-nevadas-governor-race/

but muh blue wave!111!!!

Lol, but a governor's race, something about you and seeing all elections as equal is messed up.

[Young Conservative]

Nevada loves to buck the national trend.

[Former Kentuckian]

https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/poll-gives-laxalt-advantage-in-nevadas-governor-race/

but muh blue wave!111!!!

This does nothing to disprove a blue wave, and even the people quoted in the article are wary about Laxalt and his chances. Considering this is an internal and it only shows Laxalt leading Sisolak 44-38, that's not that strong (especially since the primary has barely even started). It also helps Sisolak that he is a well-known elected figure in Clark County where around 70% of the state's population lives. If he can increase his stature in Washoe County while retaining his positive image and popularity in Clark County (on top of contrasting himself with Laxalt's far right tendencies), he'll be fine.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Governors' races are rarely nationalized, news at eleven.

[Virginiá]

Governors' races are rarely nationalized, news at eleven.

I'm not so sure about that. Waves definitely have strong effects on gubernatorial races. It's just that a wave doesn't always guarantee a win for the wave party. If you look at past midterm elections - especially 2006, 2010 and 2014, you can see the party that didn't control the White House winning more races than they usually did under worse circumstances.

That being said, even if November is destined to end with a 8 - 10 point D+ House PV, it wouldn't be wise to rule out a Republican win in Nevada. They did prove able to hold their own in 2006, although things have changed a lot since then, so, who knows.

[Kamala]

I think it’s important to look at the 2016 Assembly results - Democrats flipped nearly a quarter of the chamber, even with a rather tepid upballot. Nevada is becoming much more Democratic, across the entire ballot.

I also think Laxalt’s too right-wing for today’s Nevada, which almost guarantees enthusiastic  union support for Sisolak/Chris G in the general, which is crucial for a victory.

We need a successor to Harry to run the Reid Machine.

[YE]

I think it’s important to look at the 2016 Assembly results - Democrats flipped nearly a quarter of the chamber, even with a rather tepid upballot. Nevada is becoming much more Democratic, across the entire ballot.

I also think Laxalt’s too right-wing for today’s Nevada, which almost guarantees enthusiastic  union support for Sisolak/Chris G in the general, which is crucial for a victory.

We need a successor to Harry to run the Reid Machine.

To be fair, the large gains in the Assembly were basically a reversal to pre-2012 trends (it was 27D 15R in both 2012 and 2016). I actually don't think NV is trending left that much and I think Obama outpreformed in the state big time in 2008, just that their underdogs in this climate, especially with a far right loon in Adam Laxalt. 

[Former Kentuckian]

I'm inclined to believe that the Democrats are far more likely to win this race than not, but I'm still perplexed as to why the Democrats only ended up with D-list candidates here. Miller really ought to have run, IMO.

I actually think Sisolak and Giunchigliani are fine. Nevada's population distribution is ridiculously uneven, with nearly 70% living in Clark County. Sisolak is the Chair of the Clark County Commission while Giunchigliani is the Vice Chair. Because of Clark County's population size and economic prowess, the Clark County Commission has been called the most powerful government body in the state (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clark_County_Commission). Sisolak and Giunchigliani are well-known in a heavily populated area and have experience managing a powerful political body. The only downside is that they're going to have to do overtime in the northwest, where the remaining bulk of the state's population lives, to make up for their lack of recognition outside of Clark County.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nevada polling is always not very accurate.  Remember, 2016.