Projected Gerrymandering Power after 2020 (assuming no SC-mandated restrictions)

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

How do you see the control for redistricting shaping up after 2018/2020? Here are my thoughts:
Mid-Atlantic
NJ- Incumbent Protection is king here. Assuming 8-4 split after 2020 (I can see Dems gaining 2 here 2018 and losing 1 with Trump on the ballot 2020), that will be the split after redistricting.
NY- Cuomo and the IDC are here to stay. Expect another upstate Dem to go.
PA- I can see split control after 2020, and Lamb is definitely gonna be slashed off (or be given heavily GOP territory) due to anemic growth rates in SWPA.  Everyone else keeps their seats in incumbent protection.

New England
MA- Don't see Baker losing any time soon, but I don't know just how a GOP seat can be drawn in this state, so I don't suppose it matters much.
ME- A 2/3rd's majority is required for any new map, so status quo rules the day here.

Midwest
MI- I see the Dems winning the Governorship and not much else. Possibly another Detroit-area district will go, so 6-7 in favour of the GOP will most likely be drawn?
OH- The Dems are a walking disaster here. They won't win any of the crucial redistricting control positions, and will be slashed another district (most likely Ryan's) come 2016.
IL- Rauner is most likely going down, so another GOP seat is slashed, but I'm not sure exactly where the growth has been the most anemic. I'll leave that to the experts here.
MN- If the GOP wins the trifecta (looking likely as Senate is up for grabs in 2020, where Trump will be on the ballot), expect the two Twin Cities Metro districts to be the only two Dem seats the whole decade. MN is trending hard right due to the Neoliberal, Billionaire, Sunbelting of the Democratic Party. If split control as always, expect Peterson's district to go bye-bye, and not much other changes.
WI- If GOP trifecta stays, expect Kind to be weakened. If split control happens (unlikely, but who knows), we might see WI-01 shed Waukesha and push into Milwaukee. Ryan would have a steeper hill in that scenario.

South
TX- The VRA saves the day here, because even though the legislature and Governorship is safely in Republican hands, they may be required to create more minority districts. Also, there is a potential for dummymandering especially as they attempt to mitigate against Romney-Clinton districts.
NC- GOP trifecta projected. Expect more shenanigans.
FL- Potential for a huge coup here if Graham wins governorship. 1-2 more Dem seats likely.
VA- Same as Florida if Dems win HoD in 2019 or 2021 and hold on to the Governorship.
AL- GOP can't exactly axe the lone Dem seat, so I assume Byrne goes by seniority holding sway here.

Any more projections you can make?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

ME: Mostly status quo, with ME-02 taking a bit more D territory, and ME-01 taking a bit more R territory.
NH: Mostly status quo.
MA: Mostly status quo.
RI: Loses a seat, now only 1 seat.
CT: Mostly status quo.
NY: NY-22 probably goes away, and gets split between nearby Districts.
NJ: Democrats go all in, attempting a 12-0 gerrymander.
PA: Mostly status quo, PA-09 might go away.
MD: Democrats go all in, attempting a 8-0 gerrymander.
WV: WV-02 divided between the other Districts.
MI: Democrats draw a new map, probably going for a 9-4 or 10-3 or 8-5 gerrymander, listed in order of decreasing likelyhood.
WI: WI-03 becomes safer, and WI-01 is flipped.
MN: MN-07 loses area to nearby seats, and goes away.
OH: Divided government causes a compromise 9-6 Republican map.
IN: Mostly status quo.
IL: IL-13 removed, and IL-06 redrawn to be better for Democrats.
IA: Mostly status quo.
MO: Mostly status quo.
VA: Democrats draw themselves an 8-3 map.
NC: A compromise 8-6 Republican map due to divided government.
KY: Mostly status quo.
TN: Mostly status quo.
AR: Mostly status quo, but Republicans might try to keep every County whole, but done in such a way that they keep their 4-0 margin.

I am done listing my thoughts for now.

[Progressive Pessimist]

 Neoliberal, Billionaire, Sunbelting of the Democratic Party.
 

I mostly agree with you. Though I admit I stopped reading when I saw this.

[Mr.Phips]

How do you see the control for redistricting shaping up after 2018/2020? Here are my thoughts:
Mid-Atlantic
NJ- Incumbent Protection is king here. Assuming 8-4 split after 2020 (I can see Dems gaining 2 here 2018 and losing 1 with Trump on the ballot 2020), that will be the split after redistricting.
NY- Cuomo and the IDC are here to stay. Expect another upstate Dem to go.
PA- I can see split control after 2020, and Lamb is definitely gonna be slashed off (or be given heavily GOP territory) due to anemic growth rates in SWPA.  Everyone else keeps their seats in incumbent protection.

New England
MA- Don't see Baker losing any time soon, but I don't know just how a GOP seat can be drawn in this state, so I don't suppose it matters much.
ME- A 2/3rd's majority is required for any new map, so status quo rules the day here.

Midwest
MI- I see the Dems winning the Governorship and not much else. Possibly another Detroit-area district will go, so 6-7 in favour of the GOP will most likely be drawn?
OH- The Dems are a walking disaster here. They won't win any of the crucial redistricting control positions, and will be slashed another district (most likely Ryan's) come 2016.
IL- Rauner is most likely going down, so another GOP seat is slashed, but I'm not sure exactly where the growth has been the most anemic. I'll leave that to the experts here.
MN- If the GOP wins the trifecta (looking likely as Senate is up for grabs in 2020, where Trump will be on the ballot), expect the two Twin Cities Metro districts to be the only two Dem seats the whole decade. MN is trending hard right due to the Neoliberal, Billionaire, Sunbelting of the Democratic Party. If split control as always, expect Peterson's district to go bye-bye, and not much other changes.
WI- If GOP trifecta stays, expect Kind to be weakened. If split control happens (unlikely, but who knows), we might see WI-01 shed Waukesha and push into Milwaukee. Ryan would have a steeper hill in that scenario.

South
TX- The VRA saves the day here, because even though the legislature and Governorship is safely in Republican hands, they may be required to create more minority districts. Also, there is a potential for dummymandering especially as they attempt to mitigate against Romney-Clinton districts.
NC- GOP trifecta projected. Expect more shenanigans.
FL- Potential for a huge coup here if Graham wins governorship. 1-2 more Dem seats likely.
VA- Same as Florida if Dems win HoD in 2019 or 2021 and hold on to the Governorship.
AL- GOP can't exactly axe the lone Dem seat, so I assume Byrne goes by seniority holding sway here.

Any more projections you can make?

In New York, it depends how many seats the Dems have after 2020.  If it's like 2006 and 2008, where they won all but a few seats, then yes, an upstate Dem will go.  However, if Republicans still hold as many upstate seats (they are overrepresented there), a Republican will have to be cut.  Dem seats are pretty much guaranteed in Albany, Buffalo, and Rochester (it's all Dems currently have Upstate) due to population numbers.

In Massachusetts, Dems will have a veto proof majority in the legislature either way.

In Ohio, the GOP can't eliminate Ryan without substantially weakening surrounding Republicans with Ryan likely running against them in any district that contains Youngstown.

[CityofSinners]

NY:
Voter passed a bi-partisan redistricting commision in 2014. Maps have to be drawn with the  criteria listed beloow. Even with a dem trifecta the maps shouldn't change that much. But expect major changes in the state house and state senate maps.

''(c) Subject to the requirements of the federal constitution and statutes and in compliance with state constitutional requirements, the following principles shall be used in the creation of state senate and state assembly districts and congressional districts:

    (1) When drawing district lines, the commission shall consider whether such lines would result in the denial or abridgement of racial or language minority voting rights, and districts shall not be drawn to have the purpose of, nor shall they result in, the denial or abridgement of such rights. Districts shall be drawn so that, based on the totality of the circumstances, racial or minority language groups do not have less opportunity to participate in the political process than other members of the electorate and to elect representatives of their choice.
    (2) To the extent practicable, districts shall contain as nearly as may be an equal number of inhabitants. For each district that deviates from this requirement, the commission shall provide a specific public explanation as to why such deviation exists.
    (3) Each district shall consist of contiguous territory.
    (4) Each district shall be as compact in form as practicable.
    (5) Districts shall not be drawn to discourage competition or for the purpose of favoring or disfavoring incumbents or other particular candidates or political parties. The commission shall consider the maintenance of cores of existing districts, of pre-existing political subdivisions, including counties, cities, and towns, and of communities of interest. ''

MI:
 A non-partisan redistricting commision is on the ballot and looks very like to pass. If that happens it won't matter which party holds power for redistricting.

NJ:
The bi-partisan redistricting commision was passed by voters in 1995. A dem trifecta can't undo this commision unless the voters passed a new ballot measure.
Expect a incumbent protection plan once more.

NC:

In NC the Governor has no veto over redistricting matters. As long as republicans hold both houses they can gerrymander the map like they want(within the legal limits).

FL:

The current map is a non-partisan map imposed by the FL SC, because the GOP trifecta passed a gerrymander that violated the voter passed redistricting amendment. Even if Graham wins, expect a mostly status quo map.
If GOP has a trifecta, expect a mild GOP gerrymander. Especially as most liberal judges on the FL SC will be replaced by more conservative judges until 2021.
More conservative judges will be less inclined to strike down a GOP gerrymander.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

 Neoliberal, Billionaire, Sunbelting of the Democratic Party.
 

I mostly agree with you. Though I admit I stopped reading when I saw this.

Yeah this user just can't stop this dumbass sh!t lol. He says this in every thread as if he is attention seeking or something.

It's probably code for miniorities tbh since he thinks Kamala is a moderate neoliberal.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

 Neoliberal, Billionaire, Sunbelting of the Democratic Party.
 

I mostly agree with you. Though I admit I stopped reading when I saw this.

Yeah this user just can't stop this dumbass sh!t lol. He says this in every thread as if he is attention seeking or something.

It's probably code for miniorities tbh since he thinks Kamala is a moderate neoliberal.

The worst part is everything else he says about Minnesota is also nonsense. He states that the GOP holding the Senate is likely due to Trump being on the ballot...there's a grand total of three State Senate districts the DFL holds outside the Twin Cities metro and the Iron Range, and only one is notably "Trumpy" (it runs across the Iowa border), the other two are based around liberal college towns. The GOP meanwhile holds many Senate seats in the metro that Hillary won and currently have a one seat majority. And if we assume Trump runs even worse in those seats (seems likely)...

And yeah the way he obnoxiously uses these buzzwords in almost every post he makes is quite annoying and a great example of why so many can't stand him.

[BuckeyeNut]

lol, Democrats in Ohio are running the strongest ticket for row offices in over 30 years. OP is talking out their ass.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If the Supreme Court doesn't mandate otherwise, it's highly likely that Republicans do away with Cooper's district by dividing Nashville between several Safe R districts.  It might actually look cleaner to the eye than the current map.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

lol, Democrats in Ohio are running the strongest ticket for row offices in over 30 years. OP is talking out their ass.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

lol, Democrats in Ohio are running the strongest ticket for row offices in over 30 years. OP is talking out their ass.

Oh yeah I also noticed for Minnesota he implies that the Republicans should easily win the Governorship this year because he doesn't even mention that as part of winning the trifecta yet yeah, the DFL has the strongest candidates running this year since I moved to Minnesota. LOL.

[Illiniwek]

MI:
 A non-partisan redistricting commision is on the ballot and looks very like to pass. If that happens it won't matter which party holds power for redistricting.

If this were to happen, would the commission start with a blank slate? or would they try to adjust the current map?

[Tartarus Sauce]

If the Supreme Court doesn't mandate otherwise, it's highly likely that Republicans do away with Cooper's district by dividing Nashville between several Safe R districts.  It might actually look cleaner to the eye than the current map.

That would be a dummymander waiting to backfire the moment the environment became hostile to Republicans again.

[CityofSinners]

MI:
 A non-partisan redistricting commision is on the ballot and looks very like to pass. If that happens it won't matter which party holds power for redistricting.

If this were to happen, would the commission start with a blank slate? or would they try to adjust the current map?

There is no explicit instruction for that in the amendment. But considering one of the criteria is not to favor/disfavor a political party or incumbent it seems likely they would start from a blank slate.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If the Supreme Court doesn't mandate otherwise, it's highly likely that Republicans do away with Cooper's district by dividing Nashville between several Safe R districts.  It might actually look cleaner to the eye than the current map.

That would be a dummymander waiting to backfire the moment the environment became hostile to Republicans again.

Not really.  Out of the present TN-4, TN-5, TN-6, and TN-7, you can make four R+14-15 districts (that means that Republicans would need to be losing the PV by nearly 30 to lose any of them since Cook PVIs are doubled to get the margin).  People don't quite realize how red Nashville's suburbs are or that Nashville itself is only a light blue that nearly elected a Republican mayor in 2015.

[Tartarus Sauce]

If the Supreme Court doesn't mandate otherwise, it's highly likely that Republicans do away with Cooper's district by dividing Nashville between several Safe R districts.  It might actually look cleaner to the eye than the current map.

That would be a dummymander waiting to backfire the moment the environment became hostile to Republicans again.

Not really.  Out of the present TN-4, TN-5, TN-6, and TN-7, you can make four R+14-15 districts (that means that Republicans would need to be losing the PV by nearly 30 to lose any of them since Cook PVIs are doubled to get the margin).  People don't quite realize how red Nashville's suburbs are or that Nashville itself is only a light blue that nearly elected a Republican mayor in 2015.

I'm thinking more like 10 years out in advance. Those suburbs won't likely be as ruby red by the late 2020s as they are now, and Davidson County will almost certainly be even bluer. If, say, 2030 is a midterm under a Republican president, I wouldn't bet on cracked Nashville districts to necessarily carry through for Republicans.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If the Supreme Court doesn't mandate otherwise, it's highly likely that Republicans do away with Cooper's district by dividing Nashville between several Safe R districts.  It might actually look cleaner to the eye than the current map.

That would be a dummymander waiting to backfire the moment the environment became hostile to Republicans again.

Not really.  Out of the present TN-4, TN-5, TN-6, and TN-7, you can make four R+14-15 districts (that means that Republicans would need to be losing the PV by nearly 30 to lose any of them since Cook PVIs are doubled to get the margin).  People don't quite realize how red Nashville's suburbs are or that Nashville itself is only a light blue that nearly elected a Republican mayor in 2015.

I'm thinking more like 10 years out in advance. Those suburbs won't likely be as red by the late 2020s as they are now, and Davidson County will almost certainly be even bluer. If, say, 2030 is a midterm under a Republican president, I wouldn't bet on cracked Nashville districts to necessarily carry through for Republicans.

The real question might be, how intensely red are the rural areas? Because a sizable enough rural swing might make it completely unworkable.
Also, note that a gerrymander's success doesn't depend on just one election cycle. It depends on the five elections that take place under it. 8R-1D from 2022 onwards till 2030 and then 4 seats flip to be a 5D-4R map post-devastating midterms? That's still a smash hit of a gerrymander.

[Tartarus Sauce]

If the Supreme Court doesn't mandate otherwise, it's highly likely that Republicans do away with Cooper's district by dividing Nashville between several Safe R districts.  It might actually look cleaner to the eye than the current map.

That would be a dummymander waiting to backfire the moment the environment became hostile to Republicans again.

Not really.  Out of the present TN-4, TN-5, TN-6, and TN-7, you can make four R+14-15 districts (that means that Republicans would need to be losing the PV by nearly 30 to lose any of them since Cook PVIs are doubled to get the margin).  People don't quite realize how red Nashville's suburbs are or that Nashville itself is only a light blue that nearly elected a Republican mayor in 2015.

I'm thinking more like 10 years out in advance. Those suburbs won't likely be as red by the late 2020s as they are now, and Davidson County will almost certainly be even bluer. If, say, 2030 is a midterm under a Republican president, I wouldn't bet on cracked Nashville districts to necessarily carry through for Republicans.

The real question might be, how intensely red are the rural areas? Because a sizable enough rural swing might make it completely unworkable.
Also, note that a gerrymander's success doesn't depend on just one election cycle. It depends on the five elections that take place under it. 8R-1D from 2022 onwards till 2030 and then 4 seats flip to be a 5D-4R map post-devastating midterms? That's still a smash hit of a gerrymander.

Fair enough, all the more reason to hope that the Supreme Court ruling won't allow such shenanigans to happen.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If the Supreme Court doesn't mandate otherwise, it's highly likely that Republicans do away with Cooper's district by dividing Nashville between several Safe R districts.  It might actually look cleaner to the eye than the current map.

That would be a dummymander waiting to backfire the moment the environment became hostile to Republicans again.

Not really.  Out of the present TN-4, TN-5, TN-6, and TN-7, you can make four R+14-15 districts (that means that Republicans would need to be losing the PV by nearly 30 to lose any of them since Cook PVIs are doubled to get the margin).  People don't quite realize how red Nashville's suburbs are or that Nashville itself is only a light blue that nearly elected a Republican mayor in 2015.

I'm thinking more like 10 years out in advance. Those suburbs won't likely be as red by the late 2020s as they are now, and Davidson County will almost certainly be even bluer. If, say, 2030 is a midterm under a Republican president, I wouldn't bet on cracked Nashville districts to necessarily carry through for Republicans.

The real question might be, how intensely red are the rural areas? Because a sizable enough rural swing might make it completely unworkable.
Also, note that a gerrymander's success doesn't depend on just one election cycle. It depends on the five elections that take place under it. 8R-1D from 2022 onwards till 2030 and then 4 seats flip to be a 5D-4R map post-devastating midterms? That's still a smash hit of a gerrymander.

Fair enough, all the more reason to hope that the Supreme Court ruling won't allow such shenanigans to happen.

For me, a fair TN map is 6R-3D. One Nashville seat, one black seat gobbling Germantown and some other heavily GOP suburbs, and one seat with all of Shelby County left over plus enough rural areas to get to quota. The rest of the seats are Republican.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If the Supreme Court doesn't mandate otherwise, it's highly likely that Republicans do away with Cooper's district by dividing Nashville between several Safe R districts.  It might actually look cleaner to the eye than the current map.

That would be a dummymander waiting to backfire the moment the environment became hostile to Republicans again.

Not really.  Out of the present TN-4, TN-5, TN-6, and TN-7, you can make four R+14-15 districts (that means that Republicans would need to be losing the PV by nearly 30 to lose any of them since Cook PVIs are doubled to get the margin).  People don't quite realize how red Nashville's suburbs are or that Nashville itself is only a light blue that nearly elected a Republican mayor in 2015.

I'm thinking more like 10 years out in advance. Those suburbs won't likely be as red by the late 2020s as they are now, and Davidson County will almost certainly be even bluer. If, say, 2030 is a midterm under a Republican president, I wouldn't bet on cracked Nashville districts to necessarily carry through for Republicans.

The real question might be, how intensely red are the rural areas? Because a sizable enough rural swing might make it completely unworkable.
Also, note that a gerrymander's success doesn't depend on just one election cycle. It depends on the five elections that take place under it. 8R-1D from 2022 onwards till 2030 and then 4 seats flip to be a 5D-4R map post-devastating midterms? That's still a smash hit of a gerrymander.

Fair enough, all the more reason to hope that the Supreme Court ruling won't allow such shenanigans to happen.

For me, a fair TN map is 6R-3D. One Nashville seat, one black seat gobbling Germantown and some other heavily GOP suburbs, and one seat with all of Shelby County left over plus enough rural areas to get to quota. The rest of the seats are Republican.

I decided to try it, and here's what I got (splitting Nashville three ways, you can get safer splitting it four ways):


TN-1 (Blue): R+28 (Northeast Tennessee, Tri-Cities, Gatlinburg)
TN-2 (Green): R+19 (Knoxville Area)
TN-3 (Purple): R+19 (Chattanooga, Southeast Tennessee)
TN-4 (Red): R+26 (Cumberland Plateau to Northeastern suburbs of Nashville)
TN-5 (Yellow): R+12 (Murfreesboro, SE Nashville, South Middle Tennessee)
TN-6 (Turquoise): R+10 (Williamson County (high-end suburbs), W Nashville (including several rich areas), Downtown Nashville, SW Middle Tennessee)
TN-7 (Silver): R+13 (NE Nashville, Clarksville, Gallatin/Hendersonville, rural W Middle Tennessee and some West Tennessee)
TN-8 (Light Purple): R+19 (Suburban Memphis, Rural West Tennessee)
TN-9 (Teal): D+29 (Memphis); 62% BVAP

Obviously, letting TN-4 come in a little closer could help sure up TN-5 and TN-6 as well.

[Nyvin]

You need districts that fly halfway across the state and it looks utterly horrible, but you can draw 8 safe R seats in TN with current numbers.

The Nashville area is growing pretty fast though,  I'd be surprised if this works out as good for the GOP as some think.