WI SEN: Predict the Margin

[mcmikk]

I would have liked to put this poll in my existing thread, but since I already have a poll there I can't seem to be able to do it. If there's some way to merge these two threads then mods should feel free.

Anyway, I'm gonna be an optimist and say Baldwin +5-10. She's a progressive incumbent with a very progressive base in an environment where liberals are fired and conservatives, not so much. I'm thinking Bannonite Trumpist Nicholson will end up prevailing in the Republican primary without winning over much rural Trumpist support that Vukmir couldn't win just the same.

As a consequence, Baldwin is able to cut into the margins in WOW a little bit while she runs it up in Madison and Milwaukee and wins back some Obama-Trump counties in Western Wisconsin because something something progressive populism. I'm not thinking she gets Kohl 2006 or even Feingold 2004 margins because of more polarization, but this is a definite possibility.

I know it sounds pretty hackish, but I'm going with my gut for now.

[IceSpear]

I'll guess by around the same margin as she did in 2012, but with very interesting regional swings.

[Suburbia]

Sen. Tammy Baldwin wins by 5-10 points.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Baldwin by <10%.

[Dr. Arch]

I think 2018 will be a bloodbath for Republicans, and Baldwin will run the course against her opponent. D+10-15.

[Cactus Jack]

Baldwin swats Nicholson by lower double digits. I predict an 11-point gap.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

53-45 Baldwin wins.

[libertpaulian]

Somewhere between 5-10%.

She may even win enough to drag Walker's opponent over the finish line, depending on whether or not Trump fires Mueller.