It's election day in bama- roughly describe how you view the state of the race

[PragmaticPopulist]

No idea what is gonna happen, but in a gun-to-my-head situation, I'd pick Moore because of Alabama's strong partisan lean.

[Tender Branson]

Jones, the Democrat, will defeat Moore, the disgusting Republican, by about 1.4 points in a ca. 35-45% turnout election.

Mostly because AL voters will take a breath in the voting booth, remember that AL's image is at stake and vote for Jones.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Jones, the Democrat, will defeat Moore, the disgusting Republican, by about 1.4 points in a ca. 35-45% turnout election.

Mostly because AL voters will take a breath in the voting booth, remember that AL's image is at stake and vote for Jones.

I hope you're right here... I'm personally predicting that Jones will win by <2%, but Moore could just as easily win by high single digits. I'm really uncertain about the outcome, due to the huge variation in the polls.

[Greedo punched first]

Safe Moore

[Adam Griffin]

I'll predict a few counties that will be interesting to watch the margins.

Jefferson County

Jones: 65%
Moore: 32%

Montgomery County

Jones: 72%
Moore: 26%

Mobile County

Jones: 57%
Moore: 40%

Madison County

Jones: 55%
Moore: 41%

Shelby County

Moore: 60%
Jones: 37%

Baldwin County

Moore: 63%
Jones: 34%

Lee County

Jones: 49%
Moore: 48%

Tuscaloosa County

Jones: 56%
Moore: 39%

As far as compared to a race in Alabama in the past, I expect we'll see some of the accelerated trends from the 2016 election, like with the Virginia gubernatorial race. The whole state will obviously swing Democratic but metropolitan areas should be the strongest and rural areas with low incomes and educational levels should be least. Of course, it's Alabama, so the effect won't be that strong. I could be wrong though and this might be more like Louisiana 2015. There's no way to be sure.

Those numbers seem like a comfortable Jones victory, provided the more rural areas have a decent swing towards Jones too. We'll see.

This is closer to a tie/bare Jones win if we assume the rest of the state is swinging by margins comparable to 2012 Supreme Court...perhaps with the exception of Birmingham (I'd put it at 60% or so in a tied race in such a scenario)

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I'll predict a few counties that will be interesting to watch the margins.

Jefferson County

Jones: 65%
Moore: 32%

Montgomery County

Jones: 72%
Moore: 26%

Mobile County

Jones: 57%
Moore: 40%

Madison County

Jones: 55%
Moore: 41%

Shelby County

Moore: 60%
Jones: 37%

Baldwin County

Moore: 63%
Jones: 34%

Lee County

Jones: 49%
Moore: 48%

Tuscaloosa County

Jones: 56%
Moore: 39%

As far as compared to a race in Alabama in the past, I expect we'll see some of the accelerated trends from the 2016 election, like with the Virginia gubernatorial race. The whole state will obviously swing Democratic but metropolitan areas should be the strongest and rural areas with low incomes and educational levels should be least. Of course, it's Alabama, so the effect won't be that strong. I could be wrong though and this might be more like Louisiana 2015. There's no way to be sure.

Those numbers seem like a comfortable Jones victory, provided the more rural areas have a decent swing towards Jones too. We'll see.

This is closer to a tie/bare Jones win if we assume the rest of the state is swinging by margins comparable to 2012 Supreme Court...perhaps with the exception of Birmingham (I'd put it at 60% or so in a tied race in such a scenario)

I'd personally give Jones 67-68% in Jefferson County, if he's going to be winning statewide. the other numbers seem accurate though.

[Mike Thick]

I’m predicting 55-40 Moore. IMO, there’s probably a large contingent of shy Moore voters who are either lying to pollsters or just won’t be able to pull the lever for a Democrat.

[ursulahx]

I’m predicting 55-40 Moore. IMO, there’s probably a large contingent of shy Moore voters who are either lying to pollsters or just won’t be able to pull the lever for a Democrat.

I agree, except that it doesn’t have to be a large contingent.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I chose "Jones with a solid lead (5 or more)", and I don't think this race is very competitive anymore at this point.

I'm very cautious, but I hope you're right. there's a lot of uncertainty IMO.

[Suburbia]

I sadly believe Roy Moore will win by a 10 point margin, however if I'm wrong and jones pulls it out that will foreshadow a devastating midterm for the GOP.

Do you really think in November 2018 voters will care about Moore/pedophilia/sexual assault, or even Russia?

Jobs/crime/maybe Russia/some health outbreak/some race riot will be the talk of the town in '18.

[President Johnson]

I think Moore will pull this off and win by about five points. And afterwards, all the self-appointed expertes will come out and say Jones was a bad candidate and way too liberal for Alabama.

[Kempros]

The 2nd most WTF election ever. [(-_-)]

[Wisconsin+17]

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What fundamentals have changed vs the Trump base of support in Alabama? Just not seeing it. HillDawg poured a ton of money.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The 2nd most WTF election ever. [(-_-)]

I think this has 2016 beat, tbh.  The election is basically a statewide referendum on whether child molestation is as bad as everyone says it is.

[LimoLiberal]

I’m predicting 55-40 Moore. IMO, there’s probably a large contingent of shy Moore voters who are either lying to pollsters or just won’t be able to pull the lever for a Democrat.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

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What fundamentals have changed vs the Trump base of support in Alabama? Just not seeing it. HillDawg poured a ton of money.

WHAT???

[IceSpear]

Safe Moore

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Safe Moore

Good of you to show up, I was about to name you a craven scallawag

[Wisconsin+17]

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Man, the hate machine just doesn't stop does it? :rolleyes:

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

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Man, the hate machine just doesn't stop does it? :rolleyes:

Maybe don’t nominate a child molester next time?

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Moore will win by about 4 points...I'll be shocked if he doesn't.

[Kempros]

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Man, the hate machine just doesn't stop does it? :rolleyes:

Maybe don’t nominate a child molester next time?

The WaPo published it After the primary. Why didn't they publish it before the primary, they had 30 years to do it. Bias?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

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Man, the hate machine just doesn't stop does it? :rolleyes:

Maybe don’t nominate a child molester next time?

The WaPo published it After the primary. Bias?

Let’s say they did that deliberately as opposed to just investigating every last detail to make sure the accusers’ stories checked out, what’s your point?  Moore’s still a child molester under AL law.

[Tender Branson]

Jones, the Democrat, will defeat Moore, the disgusting Republican, by about 1.4 points in a ca. 35-45% turnout election.

Mostly because AL voters will take a breath in the voting booth, remember that AL's image is at stake and vote for Jones.

I will now accept my chocolates from you.