What did Ed Gillespie do wrong and what did Ralph Northam do right?

[Young Conservative]

Gillespie ran a Trumpist campaign in an establishment state.

[uti2]

Gillespie went in a little too much on those statues, and then at the end...he started trying to ditch Trump...not impressive if you're trying to win over the Corey Stewart vote and have a reputation for being an establishment hack to shed.

Ultimately he pulled a right-winger's version of Hillary last year.

As for Northam, he won by default because of this rather than anything he actually did, except be nice and not say anything stupid.

Suggests that this is also what a cruz/rubio race vs. Clinton would've looked like. They would've tried pandering to different demographics (Trump + 'establishment') at the same time, coming across as insufficient to both. Clinton just runs as an extension of Obama. Northam had the same platform as Clinton.

People say that Gillespie ran a 'Trumpist' campaign, he really didn't, the campaign model he most closely followed was Cruz.

[tallguy23]

Would Perrilio have won if he were the Dem nominee?

[Mr. Smith]

Would Perrilio have won if he were the Dem nominee?

Yeah, but probably about the same margin as Justin Fairfax....but at least he'd have kept Nelson County and Covington, flipped Lynchburg, and had less embarrassing margins in the Southwest.

A greater gap in Chesterfield and not taking Virginia Beach seems an acceptable price in such a case. It's not like the rest of NOVA have anywhere to go. Gillespie's tied to Trump just to appease the Stewart vote anyway, and only if Stewart had lost by double digits would he be free to run the campaign that could actually wrest those 'burbs back.

[Maxwell]

Gillespie tried to mimick the campaign that lost Virginia in 2016 by 5. Seems like a start.

Northam's judgement might've been better than mine in that he did not run as heavy against Gillespie's grievance politics as he could've, leaving an open door to moderates.

[Heisenberg]

What did Ed Gillespie do wrong? Running in Virginia. It's gone for the GOP. Simple as that.

[smoltchanov]

What did Ed Gillespie do wrong? Running in Virginia. It's gone for the GOP. Simple as that.

Virginia GOP is to be blamed for that first. A decade ago it had reasonable centrists in legislature, and John Warner in Senate. Now it's ruled mostly by Corey Stewart-type idiots. Feel the difference... The process, going in the party on national level, took place in Virginia too...

[Heisenberg]

What did Ed Gillespie do wrong? Running in Virginia. It's gone for the GOP. Simple as that.

Virginia GOP is to be blamed for that first. A decade ago it had reasonable centrists in legislature, and John Warner in Senate. Now it's ruled mostly by Corey Stewart-type idiots. Feel the difference... The process, going in the party on national level, took place in Virginia too...

Part of it is the growing anti-Government, anti-establishment, etc. sentiment among the base of national GOP voters. I've said it numerous times: It not only doesn't work in Virginia, it backfires, for obvious reasons. The Swampburbs depend on more government jobs.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

To Democrats-
even if you are not a fan of Berniecrats, one must admit tom Perriello was very good about his loss in the primary and it helped unite the party. Also, his efforts to help win the HoD likely made a huge difference.

I am thankful to Perriello, and I think he was a good sport and a large help. We need more Berniecrats like him and Warren, not total pieces of crap like Cenk and Swearingen.

[Yank2133]

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Perriello might have done better in college towns, but that is about it.

The notion that he would do better then Northam in rural areas is just wishful thinking by some progressives, who still think you can win these people over with a more progressive candidate.

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Yup.

I said on election night that Corey Stewart screwed Gillespie more so then Donald Trump. Ed was likely banking on running a Bob McDonnell economic/jobs centric campaign, but the primaries ended any plans of that.

[Landslide Lyndon]

To Democrats-
even if you are not a fan of Berniecrats, one must admit tom Perriello was very good about his loss in the primary and it helped unite the party. Also, his efforts to help win the HoD likely made a huge difference.

Periello is a mensch. I hope he runs again in the future for something.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Gillespie was a long time establishment hack trying to pass himself off as a "true conservative" like Ted Cruz and a populist like Trump. On issues like sanctuary cities and tearing down statues, he actually had some success (evidenced by Northam's decision to stop defending them), but his whole campaign seemed disingenuous. Plus, it was the first election after a republican took the white house. Other than 2002 (because of 9/11), the midterms after a presidential election have been horrible for the party of the president.

[History505]

Gillespie thought he could run a Trump-like campaign and that could formulate to the success Trump had last November, that wasn't smart. Northam really kept a smart strategy throughout the whole campaign.

[junior chįmp]

Enron Ed's failed campaign is the future of the GOP:  Take Bannons advice for running elections when your few victories are simply fooled by randomness

[Panhandle Progressive]

What Northam did right: Almost everything
What Northam did wrong: Almost nothing

What Gillespie did right: Almost nothing
What Gillespie did wrong: Almost everything

[Türkisblau]

Is everyone here just going to ignore the fact that Gillespie almost went down to Stewart in the primary? You can't ignore the fact that there is absolutely a large Trumpist contingent of Virginia Republicans that Gillespie needed to motivate. I love this ridiculous idea that "If only Republicans ran to the center and on PRINCIPLES they would win!" in these situations. It's completely divorced from the present reality.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is everyone here just going to ignore the fact that Gillespie almost went down to Stewart in the primary? You can't ignore the fact that there is absolutely a large Trumpist contingent of Virginia Republicans that Gillespie needed to motivate. I love this ridiculous idea that "If only Republicans ran to the center and on PRINCIPLES they would win!" in these situations. It's completely divorced from the present reality.

[Maxwell]

I think Corey Stewart doing so well really did put Gillespie in a bind - in a way that wouldn't have been so bad if the early polls were right and Stewart only got like 15-20%.

[IceSpear]

What Gillespie did wrong: Ran a campaign as a Republican during a D friendly cycle.
What Northam did right: Ran a campaign as a Democrat during a D friendly cycle.

Clearly there's more to it than that; but the reality is what the political mood is matters a lot in a toss-up style race.

Atlas tends to vastly underrate fundamentals like a state's lean and the overall political environment and overrate candidate quality and campaigns.