CA-GOV: Democratic primary vote map

[Greedo punched first]

What would a map of only the Democratic vote in the primary look like?
Gavin Newsom
Antonio Villaraigosa
John Chiang
Delaine Eastin

[Del Tachi]

[Greedo punched first]

I can't imagine Newsom getting the highest share of the Democratic vote in every county. Why does Newsom have a lower share in Humboldt, Mono, San Francisco, and Santa Cruz?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I can't imagine Newsom getting the highest share of the Democratic vote in every county. Why does Newsom have a lower share in Humboldt, Mono, San Francisco, and Santa Cruz?

Maybe the lighter shade of red is a different candidate?

[Del Tachi]

I can't imagine Newsom getting the highest share of the Democratic vote in every county. Why does Newsom have a lower share in Humboldt, Mono, San Francisco, and Santa Cruz?

Maybe the lighter shade of red is a different candidate?

This is the 2004 Democratic presidential primary map.  John Kerry is red.

I didn't think about the percentages, but I think Newsom will win a plurality of Democratic voters in every county.

[Greedo punched first]

I can't imagine Newsom getting the highest share of the Democratic vote in every county. Why does Newsom have a lower share in Humboldt, Mono, San Francisco, and Santa Cruz?

Maybe the lighter shade of red is a different candidate?

This is the 2004 Democratic presidential primary map.  John Kerry is red.

I didn't think about the percentages, but I think Newsom will win a plurality of Democratic voters in every county.

Which candidates would be the ones who do better in San Francisco, Humboldt, and Mono counties (where Newsom gets a smaller percentage)?

[Del Tachi]

I can't imagine Newsom getting the highest share of the Democratic vote in every county. Why does Newsom have a lower share in Humboldt, Mono, San Francisco, and Santa Cruz?

Maybe the lighter shade of red is a different candidate?

This is the 2004 Democratic presidential primary map.  John Kerry is red.

I didn't think about the percentages, but I think Newsom will win a plurality of Democratic voters in every county.

Which candidates would be the ones who do better in San Francisco, Humboldt, and Mono counties (where Newsom gets a smaller percentage)?

I didn't make this map.  Its a map of the 2004 presidential Democratic primary vote in California.  I posted this map to only illustrate the point that I think Newsom wins every county.  The percentages are not significant and not part of my analysis.

[Greedo punched first]

I can't imagine Newsom getting the highest share of the Democratic vote in every county. Why does Newsom have a lower share in Humboldt, Mono, San Francisco, and Santa Cruz?

Maybe the lighter shade of red is a different candidate?

This is the 2004 Democratic presidential primary map.  John Kerry is red.

I didn't think about the percentages, but I think Newsom will win a plurality of Democratic voters in every county.

Which candidates would be the ones who do better in San Francisco, Humboldt, and Mono counties (where Newsom gets a smaller percentage)?

I didn't make this map.  Its a map of the 2004 presidential Democratic primary vote in California.  I posted this map to only illustrate the point that I think Newsom wins every county.  The percentages are not significant and not part of my analysis.

The 2004 primary took place after Kerry clinched the nomination. The 2004 California primary had no impact on the nomination. Which counties would other Democrats do better in?

[Greedo punched first]

Will Newsom get the largest share of the Democratic vote in every countyor not? Will Villaraigosa, Chiang, or Eastin get the most Democratic votes in any county?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Villaraigosa is winning the Central Valley, San Bernardino County, and Imperial County for sure. He also probably wins Los Angeles, Orange, Ventura, and Riverside. Newsom will win all of the Central Coast and Bay Area (except maybe Contra Costa.) I have no idea how San Diego and the far north will vote. Eastin and Chiang are non-factors.

[Greedo punched first]

Too many undecided voters in these polls. All but one poll (without Faulconer, who isn't running) has over 20% undecided voters. Jungle primaries in populated states are unpredictable.

[tallguy23]

I live in LA and can tell you that Villaraigosa is not very popular here. He's seen as an empty suit mayor who was more interested in going to parties and Lakers games than actually running the city.

[Greedo punched first]

I live in LA and can tell you that Villaraigosa is not very popular here. He's seen as an empty suit mayor who was more interested in going to parties and Lakers games than actually running the city.

Does Villaraigosa even make the runoff? If not, who does?

[tallguy23]

I live in LA and can tell you that Villaraigosa is not very popular here. He's seen as an empty suit mayor who was more interested in going to parties and Lakers games than actually running the city.

Does Villaraigosa even make the runoff? If not, who does?

As it stands now, it looks like a runoff between Newsom and Villaraigosa. Villaraigosa's support is mainly due to name recognition. I don't think he'd fair well in a debate with Newsom who is way more charismatic and knowledgeable.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I live in LA and can tell you that Villaraigosa is not very popular here. He's seen as an empty suit mayor who was more interested in going to parties and Lakers games than actually running the city.

He'll pull ahead in the city, but I don't think he'll win the county as a whole. Not with over 53% against Newsom, at least

[Greedo punched first]

I live in LA and can tell you that Villaraigosa is not very popular here. He's seen as an empty suit mayor who was more interested in going to parties and Lakers games than actually running the city.

He'll pull ahead in the city, but I don't think he'll win the county as a whole. Not with over 53% against Newsom, at least

How well would Chiang and Eastin do in the primary?

[henster]

It's pretty surprising Newsom in his useless Lt. Gov job has more name ID than Chiang who has been Controller and Treasurer. Chiang has been in office way longer and was usually the best performing Dem statewide he at least should have a leg up on Villar.

[Greedo punched first]

Could Chiang or Eastin win any counties?

[Canis]

Could Chiang or Eastin win any counties?

Potentially? Yes but its Unlikely
Here are two great articles on the Governors race and it shows why Chiang is not doing so well
http://beta.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-los-angeles-county-voters-20180102-htmlstory.html
http://beta.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-chiang-governor-campaign-20170731-story.html
Also some new News Chiang's campaign is going through a big staff change
http://beta.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-top-advisor-to-john-chiang-resigns-from-1515022592-htmlstory.html

[Greedo punched first]

Could Chiang or Eastin win any counties?

Potentially? Yes but its Unlikely
Here are two great articles on the Governors race and it shows why Chiang is not doing so well
http://beta.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-los-angeles-county-voters-20180102-htmlstory.html
http://beta.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-chiang-governor-campaign-20170731-story.html
Also some new News Chiang's campaign is going through a big staff change
http://beta.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-top-advisor-to-john-chiang-resigns-from-1515022592-htmlstory.html

If so, which counties could Eastin win and which ones could Chiang win?

Here are the counties I think Newsom will definitely win, which are in red. I don't know about the counties in gray.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

I like how map is in the thread name and there's only one map in the here and it has nothing to do with the thread.