Trump won't lose Texas, even in a D tidal wave.
True, but IF Trump lost Texas, what would the map look like? IMO that would mean the D nominee got insane Latino turnout that rivals Obama's black turnout. It also means rural whites vote just typical R rather than the turnout Trump got in 2016.
That's why I think if the D won Texas that means s/he would also win Missouri and possibly Indiana as well (assuming the Pence factor isn't significant). Unreal minority turnout combined with lower white rural turnout for Trump.
Basically Obama 2008 on steroids.