What if Conor Lamb ran in PA-14?

[KaiserDave]

Conor Lamb chose to run in the newly created 17th district after PA was redistricted and de-gerrymandered. PA-17 is made up of Allegheny County (mostly Pittsburgh) and Beaver county. Both of which were carried by Bob Casey Jr. and Tom Wolf. If he chose to run in the new PA-14, which was more similar to where he faced Saccone in March. Could he have won, keep in mind that Lamb won in the new PA-14 by about 13 against an incumbent, and Guy Reschenthaler, the GOP nominee in PA-14 won by almost 16 against a non-incumbent.
I think it's unlikely, but not impossible. PA-14 has Washington county, which Wolf lost only narrowly, and it can be expected Lamb would run ahead of him.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

The top of the ballot Democratic candidates did well in PA-14. If Lamb ran, he could very well have won. 

[KaiserDave]

The top of the ballot Democratic candidates did well in PA-14. If Lamb ran, he could very well have won. 

Would he do better against Saccone?

[KaiserDave]

Maybe it would have worked, Dems could've picked up PA-17 with a different candidate.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wolf came within 3 points of winning the district, so I think he could've won. Plus the guy who won, Reschenthaler, doesn't even live in the district. That might not be a big deal to some Atlas posters, but Lamb really knows how to get his message and attack out. I worked on his campaign during the special and it was one of the most impressively-run campaigns I've ever seen.

[KaiserDave]

Wolf came within 3 points of winning the district, so I think he could've won. Plus the guy who won, Reschenthaler, doesn't even live in the district.

Wolf came within 3? In that case I think it's even likely Lamb could've won the district. He probably coulda carried it and then some other Dem woulda beat Rothfus, albeit by a smaller margin.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The top of the ballot Democratic candidates did well in PA-14. If Lamb ran, he could very well have won. 

Would he do better against Saccone?

He probably would've beaten Saccone by a larger margin than he did during the special, even though the district is slightly redder than the old one. A lot of blue collar republicans soured on Saccone after he lost, including my father and committed to voting for Lamb in the possible rematch.

[KaiserDave]

The top of the ballot Democratic candidates did well in PA-14. If Lamb ran, he could very well have won. 

Would he do better against Saccone?

He probably would've beaten Saccone by a larger margin than he did during the special, even though the district is slightly redder than the old one. A lot of blue collar republicans soured on Saccone after he lost, including my father and committed to voting for Lamb in the possible rematch.

Interesting...
Why is that?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The top of the ballot Democratic candidates did well in PA-14. If Lamb ran, he could very well have won.  

Would he do better against Saccone?

He probably would've beaten Saccone by a larger margin than he did during the special, even though the district is slightly redder than the old one. A lot of blue collar republicans soured on Saccone after he lost, including my father and committed to voting for Lamb in the possible rematch.

Interesting...
Why is that?

Saccone was a terrible campaigner. A lot of the literature his volunteers handed out made no sense. For example, one of the pieces of lit I got in the mail compared the amount of books he wrote in his lifetime to the amount Lamb wrote, and if you know Western PA, the people here are very straight-to-the-point, no nonsense and such and his vague campaign message irked a lot of people while Lamb's was clear, concise, and struck an independent tone.

In short: He was just so damn unlikable while Lamb is young, handsome, articulate, and charismatic.

Plus, it's also that "you had your chance and you blew it" mindset many voters had that probably cost him the nomination for the 14th.

[KaiserDave]

The top of the ballot Democratic candidates did well in PA-14. If Lamb ran, he could very well have won.  

Would he do better against Saccone?

He probably would've beaten Saccone by a larger margin than he did during the special, even though the district is slightly redder than the old one. A lot of blue collar republicans soured on Saccone after he lost, including my father and committed to voting for Lamb in the possible rematch.

Interesting...
Why is that?

Saccone was a terrible campaigner. A lot of the literature his volunteers handed out made no sense. For example, one of the pieces of lit I got in the mail compared the amount of books he wrote in his lifetime to the amount Lamb wrote, and if you know Western PA, the people here are very straight-to-the-point, no nonsense and such and his vague campaign message irked a lot of people while Lamb's was clear, concise, and struck an independent tone.

In short: He was just so damn unlikable while Lamb is young, handsome, articulate, and charismatic.

Plus, it's also that "you had your chance and you blew it" mindset many voters had that probably cost him the nomination for the 14th.

Books?
What? Like...what?
Do you think that Lamb shoulda run for PA-14?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The top of the ballot Democratic candidates did well in PA-14. If Lamb ran, he could very well have won.  

Would he do better against Saccone?

He probably would've beaten Saccone by a larger margin than he did during the special, even though the district is slightly redder than the old one. A lot of blue collar republicans soured on Saccone after he lost, including my father and committed to voting for Lamb in the possible rematch.

Interesting...
Why is that?

Saccone was a terrible campaigner. A lot of the literature his volunteers handed out made no sense. For example, one of the pieces of lit I got in the mail compared the amount of books he wrote in his lifetime to the amount Lamb wrote, and if you know Western PA, the people here are very straight-to-the-point, no nonsense and such and his vague campaign message irked a lot of people while Lamb's was clear, concise, and struck an independent tone.

In short: He was just so damn unlikable while Lamb is young, handsome, articulate, and charismatic.

Plus, it's also that "you had your chance and you blew it" mindset many voters had that probably cost him the nomination for the 14th.

Books?
What? Like...what?
Do you think that Lamb shoulda run for PA-14?

It just said "Wrote 4 books"

Eh, I think it was safest for him to run in the 17th. That way he was guaranteed to return to congress and remain a rising star in the PA Dems for future office (Senate). He definitely wouldn't have been guaranteed to win in PA-14, plus his hometown (Mt. Lebanon) was put in the 17th.

[AudmanOut]

The top of the ballot Democratic candidates did well in PA-14. If Lamb ran, he could very well have won.  

Would he do better against Saccone?

He probably would've beaten Saccone by a larger margin than he did during the special, even though the district is slightly redder than the old one. A lot of blue collar republicans soured on Saccone after he lost, including my father and committed to voting for Lamb in the possible rematch.

Interesting...
Why is that?

Saccone was a terrible campaigner. A lot of the literature his volunteers handed out made no sense. For example, one of the pieces of lit I got in the mail compared the amount of books he wrote in his lifetime to the amount Lamb wrote, and if you know Western PA, the people here are very straight-to-the-point, no nonsense and such and his vague campaign message irked a lot of people while Lamb's was clear, concise, and struck an independent tone.

In short: He was just so damn unlikable while Lamb is young, handsome, articulate, and charismatic.

Plus, it's also that "you had your chance and you blew it" mindset many voters had that probably cost him the nomination for the 14th.

Books?
What? Like...what?
Do you think that Lamb shoulda run for PA-14?

It just said "Wrote 4 books"

Eh, I think it was safest for him to run in the 17th. That way he was guaranteed to return to congress and remain a rising star in the PA Dems for future office (Senate). He definitely wouldn't have been guaranteed to win in PA-14, plus his hometown (Mt. Lebanon) was put in the 17th.

Do you think he would have won?
Also off topic but is this women your state senator? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camera_Bartolotta
Just asking because my mom went to high school with her, apparently she got kicked out for getting pregnant (this was a all girl Catholic school.)

[NewYorkExpress]

Lamb would have won...but Rothfus probably would have won too.

This way was better for me. Lamb wins AND Democrats knock out an incumbent.

[KaiserDave]

I suppose you're right. But I didn't know Mt. Lebanon was in PA-17. In that case it all makes sense. And yes, Lamb or Wolf should take the seat in 2022.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lamb would have won...but Rothfus probably would have won too.

This way was better for me. Lamb wins AND Democrats knock out an incumbent.

I actually don't think so. A large portion of the population in the 17th is the north and south Pittsburgh suburbs and they trended heavily to the Democrats in the midterms. Beaver county alone wouldn't have saved Rothfus, who actually narrowly beat Lamb there, and he was never really a strong incumbent. He just presided over a safe R district the majority of his career.

[136or142]

The Democratic nominee in the 14th district, Bibiana Boeiro was a strong candidate as well and she lost bigly.  Conor Lamb similarly lost bigly in the rural parts of the old district in the special election.

[OBD]

Perhaps he would win, but it's not a feasible long-term hold for Democrats. Better get a more likely long-term hold in the 17th.

[Jeppe]

He might've lost PA-14 by 10 points instead of the ~20 points we actually lost it by.