What would the House vote have been if no one had an EC majority?

[Mr. Morden]

Let's say the election result is the same except for three states: Clinton narrowly wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, and McMullin narrowly wins Utah.  In that case, I think the electoral college tally is:

Clinton 268
Trump 264
McMullin 6

So Clinton wins a plurality of the electoral college and a plurality of the popular vote, but not a majority of either.  So suppose there are no faithless electors, and the election goes to the House.  How many Republicans in the House would have bailed on Trump and voted McMullin?  Is there any chance of a deadlock in the House that leads to VP Pence being sworn in as acting president?

Bonus question: What if 4 of the 6 McMullin electors had strategically gone faithless and voted for someone like Paul Ryan instead?  Would more House Republicans have voted Ryan if he was an option, rather than vote for Trump?

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

House Republicans would have voted for Trump because if they didn't they'd get massacred in 2018.

[Gustaf]

It's the old House, not the new one that votes right?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It's the old House, not the new one that votes right?

The new one.


It used to be the old one, until the debacle in 1800 where the Federalists who were defeated had to select the President.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's the old House, not the new one that votes right?

The new one.


It used to be the old one, until the debacle in 1800 where the Federalists who were defeated had to select the President.

It was the the old one until the 1936 election. The Whigs used the fact the had congress for their crazy 1836 strategy.

[Gustaf]

So, 17 Democratic delegations, 32 Republican ones and 1 tied (Maine). So you'd need 7 GOP House delegations to jump ship. Seems like a tall order.

[Mr. Morden]

So, 17 Democratic delegations, 32 Republican ones and 1 tied (Maine). So you'd need 7 GOP House delegations to jump ship. Seems like a tall order.

Here’s a list of #NeverTrump Republicans in the House:

link

(Though I think they forgot a couple of names, like Reichert in WA.)  Some of them were retiring in 2016 though, so they wouldn’t be voting.  If all of them voted McMullin in the House, then what delegations does that move from Trump majority to no majority?  CO, FL, ID, MI, and WI?  That’s five.  Not listed though is any #NeverTrumpers among the incoming freshman members.  Not sure if there were any.

I’ve got to think that if it was a secret ballot, then tons of them would have voted McMullin in the House, in order to produce a deadlock that results in President Pence.  But their votes being public would have complicated things.

But keep in mind, in this scenario, Trump has lost both the popular vote *and* the electoral vote to Clinton, so he has absolutely no basis on which to claim a “mandate”.  That may lead some members to say “screw it, just bring on President Pence.”

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Bonus question: What if 4 of the 6 McMullin electors had strategically gone faithless and voted for someone like Paul Ryan instead?  Would more House Republicans have voted Ryan if he was an option, rather than vote for Trump?

What if 3 of the 6 McMullin electors had voted for Paul Ryan? Could the House have chosen between four different candidates?

[krazen1211]

Trump would win of course.

[Keep cool-idge]

Okay what about this election
https://mobile.twitter.com/disneyfan2001/status/923689972414025728/photo/1
What this election is Gary Johnson gets on the debate stage an does really well it gives him New Mexico and 8-10% of the popular vote
McMullin gets 3% so he takes you Utah

What happens is that he takes Enough votes in Arizona and Nevada away from trump giving those states to Hillary

Colorado goes for trump because Gary Johnson takes a lot democrat leaning voters and also mcmullin is not on the ballot.

Virginia goes trump because Gary takes enough voters in NOVA and Charlottesville to give trump a razor thin margin.

Florida goes for Hillary because mcmullin is on the ballot and he takes 15% in southern Florida aka he takes half of the republican vote there trump only gets like 15% in dade county.

Minnesota goes for trump because mcmullin isn’t on the ballot and Johnson takes a lot in twin cities area.

Pennsylvania and Michigan hillary increases black turnout and in the Philadelphia suburbs Gary Johnson gets 9% of the vote taking a lot of reluctant trump voters

New Hampshire and Maine flip republican cause those states are Gary Johnson’s second and fourth best states in the country.

The popular vote is 41% Clinton and 42% trump who wins?

[Skill and Chance]

So, 17 Democratic delegations, 32 Republican ones and 1 tied (Maine). So you'd need 7 GOP House delegations to jump ship. Seems like a tall order.

Here’s a list of #NeverTrump Republicans in the House:

link

(Though I think they forgot a couple of names, like Reichert in WA.)  Some of them were retiring in 2016 though, so they wouldn’t be voting.  If all of them voted McMullin in the House, then what delegations does that move from Trump majority to no majority?  CO, FL, ID, MI, and WI?  That’s five.  Not listed though is any #NeverTrumpers among the incoming freshman members.  Not sure if there were any.

I’ve got to think that if it was a secret ballot, then tons of them would have voted McMullin in the House, in order to produce a deadlock that results in President Pence.  But their votes being public would have complicated things.

But keep in mind, in this scenario, Trump has lost both the popular vote *and* the electoral vote to Clinton, so he has absolutely no basis on which to claim a “mandate”.  That may lead some members to say “screw it, just bring on President Pence.”

The President Pence scenario would also leave the risk that if the Democrats had a big enough 2018 wave, the House could still elect Clinton president in Jan. 2019 boot Pence back to VP.  Now, it would probably take a 60D/35R generic ballot to give the Democrats outright control of 26 state delegations, but that would be handing them a heck of an issue to motivate base turnout, particularly with Clinton having won the PV.

[Mr. Morden]

So, 17 Democratic delegations, 32 Republican ones and 1 tied (Maine). So you'd need 7 GOP House delegations to jump ship. Seems like a tall order.

Here’s a list of #NeverTrump Republicans in the House:

link

(Though I think they forgot a couple of names, like Reichert in WA.)  Some of them were retiring in 2016 though, so they wouldn’t be voting.  If all of them voted McMullin in the House, then what delegations does that move from Trump majority to no majority?  CO, FL, ID, MI, and WI?  That’s five.  Not listed though is any #NeverTrumpers among the incoming freshman members.  Not sure if there were any.

I’ve got to think that if it was a secret ballot, then tons of them would have voted McMullin in the House, in order to produce a deadlock that results in President Pence.  But their votes being public would have complicated things.

But keep in mind, in this scenario, Trump has lost both the popular vote *and* the electoral vote to Clinton, so he has absolutely no basis on which to claim a “mandate”.  That may lead some members to say “screw it, just bring on President Pence.”

The President Pence scenario would also leave the risk that if the Democrats had a big enough 2018 wave, the House could still elect Clinton president in Jan. 2019 boot Pence back to VP.  Now, it would probably take a 60D/35R generic ballot to give the Democrats outright control of 26 state delegations, but that would be handing them a heck of an issue to motivate base turnout, particularly with Clinton having won the PV.

If the Dems win that big in the 2018 midterms, then couldn't the lame duck Republican House just hold a re-vote in November or December 2018, and vote in either Trump or McMullin in order to stop Clinton from becoming president?

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I think the most optimistic scenario for Clinton includes winning MI/FL/WI/CO/VA, but that's a big stretch and even that wouldn't be enough to put her over the top. I don't know if I see McMullin winning anything, except for UT or ID if he's lucky.

So this is Clinton's best scenario IMO, and Trump still gets 25 to her 23 and McMullin's 2.

[Mr. Morden]

I think the most optimistic scenario for Clinton includes winning MI/FL/WI/CO/VA

Wait, who wins a state in the House vote for POTUS if no one gets a majority of the delegation?  I figured you needed a majority of the delegation, but if it's just a plurality, then that changes things.  E.g., say Amash and Upton vote for McMullin, but all the other Republicans in Michigan vote Trump.  Then the Michigan delegation would be:

Trump 7
Clinton 5
McMullin 2

So does that count as Trump winning Michigan, because he's got a plurality, even though it's only 50% exactly and not a majority?  Or is it a null vote because of no majority?

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I think the most optimistic scenario for Clinton includes winning MI/FL/WI/CO/VA

Wait, who wins a state in the House vote for POTUS if no one gets a majority of the delegation?  I figured you needed a majority of the delegation, but if it's just a plurality, then that changes things.  E.g., say Amash and Upton vote for McMullin, but all the other Republicans in Michigan vote Trump.  Then the Michigan delegation would be:

Trump 7
Clinton 5
McMullin 2

So does that count as Trump winning Michigan, because he's got a plurality, even though it's only 50% exactly and not a majority?  Or is it a null vote because of no majority?

I believe that Trump would win Michigan in that scenario, but my scenario was extremely optimistic and included either abstentions of Amash/Upton or something along those lines (maybe a couple of the Never Trumpers could be persuaded into supporting Clinton, as extremely unlikely as that would be).