1960: Humphrey vs Nixon

[Mr. Smith]

Suppose Humphrey managed to defeat JFK and get vault over LBJ at the convention.

How would this turn out? And would LBJ be tapped again?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Roughly the same as IOTL. A very close election with Humphrey doing worse in the South than JFK and about the same everywhere else. I doubt he would pick LBJ as his running mate.

[RogueBeaver]

Nixon wins easily because Humphrey is anathema in the South. Most of Dixie stays GOP, AL/MS vote for unpledged electors. Maybe GA too.

[Mr. Smith]

My guess

Humphrey/Johnson
Nixon/Rockefeller


No way would Humphrey not have tapped LBJ, it's the only way he could've had a chance in The South, or even Texas, which I predict is the only place he would've narrowly held ala 1968...maybe Arkansas too.

However he had the farming/Midwestern roots (and no "law and order" dogwhistling likely) that should've helped him in places like Montana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, and South Dakota.

And Arizona was a bellwether with a strong Democratic bench back then, so I think without JFK-The-Northeast-City-Yuppie, any other successful Democrat should've won it.

And Ohio also usually flips to the winning side, so Humphrey probably takes that too if he's winning.

Oh, and there was an economic recession and the GOP wasn't that popular in 1960, even though Ike himself was.

[darklordoftech]

My guess

Humphrey/Johnson
Nixon/Rockefeller


No way would Humphrey not have tapped LBJ, it's the only way he could've had a chance in The South, or even Texas, which I predict is the only place he would've narrowly held ala 1968...maybe Arkansas too.

However he had the farming/Midwestern roots (and no "law and order" dogwhistling likely) that should've helped him in places like Montana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, and South Dakota.

And Arizona was a bellwether with a strong Democratic bench back then, so I think without JFK-The-Northeast-City-Yuppie, any other successful Democrat should've won it.

And Ohio also usually flips to the winning side, so Humphrey probably takes that too if he's winning.

Oh, and there was an economic recession and the GOP wasn't that popular in 1960, even though Ike himself was.

Who did Lousiana, Mississipi, Alabama, and Georgia vote for?

[Mr. Smith]

My guess

Humphrey/Johnson
Nixon/Rockefeller
Unpledged


No way would Humphrey not have tapped LBJ, it's the only way he could've had a chance in The South, or even Texas, which I predict is the only place he would've narrowly held ala 1968...maybe Arkansas too.

However he had the farming/Midwestern roots (and no "law and order" dogwhistling likely) that should've helped him in places like Montana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, and South Dakota.

And Arizona was a bellwether with a strong Democratic bench back then, so I think without JFK-The-Northeast-City-Yuppie, any other successful Democrat should've won it.

And Ohio also usually flips to the winning side, so Humphrey probably takes that too if he's winning.

Oh, and there was an economic recession and the GOP wasn't that popular in 1960, even though Ike himself was.

Who did Lousiana, Mississipi, Alabama, and Georgia vote for?

Probably Harry Byrd or some other segregationist...thanks for the spot check.

[Burke859]

How would this have affected things down the line?  It looks like the Democrats put together a win by trading some Southern states for Midwestern states.  That would make the South less important in 1968 I would think, when Nixon knew he could steal the South and add it to the Republican strength in the North to take the White House.  If Humphrey wins in 1960 without the South, it seems like Republicans will be trying to take back the Midwest in 1968 instead of the South, which could lead to a totally different nominee and strategy.

I'm assuming here that Republicans still run Goldwater and lose big in 1964.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

What’s funny is that in 1960 Humphrey was seen as too liberal for a general election. Twelve years later he was the rearguard of the Democratic right as far as the activists were concerned.

[Lechasseur]

Nixon wins easily because Humphrey is anathema in the South. Most of Dixie stays GOP, AL/MS vote for unpledged electors. Maybe GA too.

[Sir Mohamed]

There goes my prediction: Humphrey does worse in the South, but narrowly carries the electoral college. Nixon wins the PV meanwhile. I think Humphrey picks Stuart Symington for the VP slot.

✓ Senator Hubert Humphrey (D-MN)/Senator Stuart Symington (D-MO) 287 EVs.; 48.0%
Vice President Richard Nixon (R-CA)/Ambassador William Cabot Lodge (D-ME): 201 EVs.; 48.5%
Senator Harry Byrd (I-VA)/ ?? : 49 EVs.; 3.4%

[Lechasseur]

There goes my prediction: Humphrey does worse in the South, but narrowly carries the electoral college. Nixon wins the PV meanwhile. I think Humphrey picks Stuart Symington for the VP slot.

✓ Senator Hubert Humphrey (D-MN)/Senator Stuart Symington (D-MO) 287 EVs.; 48.0%
Vice President Richard Nixon (R-CA)/Ambassador William Cabot Lodge (D-ME): 201 EVs.; 48.5%
Senator Harry Byrd (I-VA)/ ?? : 49 EVs.; 3.4%

Humphrey won Texas in 1968 thanks to having been Johnson's VP. In 1960, Being a liberal without a connexion to the state's favorite son, Nixon wins Texas.

I think Nixon would also win all the states to the South of Missouri that didn't go third party.

[killertahu22]

Nixon wins

[brucejoel99]

Yeah, LBJ would still be the most likely VP candidate. Johnson & Humphrey had an established relationship in the Senate (in fact, they were good friends of sort. Johnson had taken Humphrey under his wing when Humphrey first reached the Senate, & even broke the social isolation which many of the Democratic leaders were imposing on the Senator from MN). Also, if anyone's gonna shore up Southern support for Humphrey, it's LBJ. Unlike JFK, LBJ actually liked Humphrey & would likely be working harder for him in the South.

So, let's assume that the Democrats field Humphrey/Johnson in 1960. Contrary to most of the previous posters, I think a Humphrey victory's still possible over Nixon. Humphrey, likely, does better in the Midwest than Kennedy; WI & IA would be more likely to go for the Democratic ticket (WI, at this point, was a state emerging from 2 decades of Republican dominance, & Humphrey was a known quantity in the state, having widely been known as "WI's 3rd Senator." Despite his OTL loss in the WI primary, I have a feeling that Humphrey would be more palpable to Independents in WI come the general election), offsetting any losses in the South (& potentially causing Southern members of the Electoral College to be less likely to go for Byrd, in any case).