Donald Trump and minorities in 2020

[American2020]

2016 Race/ethnicity

               Dem  GOP  Oth  %
White   37   58   5   70
Black   88   8   4   12
Asian   65   29   6   4
Other   56   37   7   3
Hispanic    65   29   6   11

How many votes do you expect Trump will get/lose in 2020 ?

What would be the impact in the Electoral College ?

Discuss and use maps.

[twenty42]

Probably a slight improvement. Hillary generated fear of the unknown among minorities in 2016, but that tactic will be less effective after four years of Trump actually being president.

[Rookie Yinzer]

But everything the Democratic nominee said about him in regards to race relations came to fruition.

I predict Trump 2020 will get Romney 2012 margins in the black community with the Dem nominee doing better than Hillary but worse than Obama and the rest third party.

Hispanic depends on turnout. Dem leaning Hispanics feel motivated to vote him out in AZ, NV, and FL could swing it a few points.

Trump's best minority group will probably be Asians. He hasn't really directed anything at them and they are more conservative and higher income so they may be inclined to vote for him unless we get a charismatic Obama-like figure which is doubtful.

[pbrower2a]

"Asians" include some South Asian Muslims.

The good thing for Trump is that they are heavily concentrated in states that usually vote D in Presidential elections.

Hispanics will burn him badly. They don't like his anti-intellectualism.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Asians are much like Jews.  They are often quite liberal, politically, but they can be conservaative, socially, and tend to oppose liberal initiatives like Affirmative Action.  They are above average in income and education.  I can't believe that the Trump rally schtick appeals to many Asians, especially Asians who are professionally successful.

These groups are probably more elastic than Trump, but I don't see Trump as being the Republican who can move the needle with these folks.

[Tekken_Guy]

He won't do as well in 2020. Unless they nominate someone truly horrible, minorities will certainly be much more enthusiastic about the Democratic nominee than they were about Hillary.

[White Trash]

"Asians" include some South Asian Muslims.

The good thing for Trump is that they are heavily concentrated in states that usually vote D in Presidential elections.

Hispanics will burn him badly. They don't like his anti-intellectualism.

I don't think Hispanics are a particularly "anti-anti-intellectualism" demographic. Their dislike of President Trump stems from something much more obvious.

[UncleSam]

Uh Hillary was a really strong candidate among Latinos throughout her career and did almost as well among African Americans as the first black President. Hillary was unpopular among working-class whites. Not minorities.

I'll be surprised if Trump doesn't improve among African Americans and Hispanicsby marginal amounts (say 3 - 5 points) unless the Democrats nominate someone with strong appeal to these communities.

Of course I'll also be surprise if Dems don't do 3 - 5 points better amog white voters.

[PoliticalJunkie23]

He'll likely improve among Asians, as they usually will be more inclined to vote for incumbents. African Americans won't change much either way, and if the margins aren't the same he'll probably do a little bit better among them. Hispanics is anyones guess, but I think he will improve among the Cubans in Florida and possibly the more moderate/conservative Hispanics in Texas. But stronger turnout in states like Colorado, Arizona, California, and Nevada can make his margins among the group worse.

[Mr. Smith]

Uh Hillary was a really strong candidate among Latinos throughout her career and did almost as well among African Americans as the first black President. Hillary was unpopular among working-class whites. Not minorities.

I'll be surprised if Trump doesn't improve among African Americans and Hispanicsby marginal amounts (say 3 - 5 points) unless the Democrats nominate someone with strong appeal to these communities.

Of course I'll also be surprise if Dems don't do 3 - 5 points better amog white voters.

Uh no, black turnout and votes literally went back down to Kerry/Gore numbers with her, and Hispanics dropped a bit too. If she had actually gotten Obama's numbers, she would've flipped Arizona, gotten a majority in NM, and kept Tump to a plurality in Texas...she might well have even retained Florida.

However, this isn't cause to celebrate for Trump, who did worse among minorities than literally every candidate but Romney... and arguably that was only because of his economic populism that he barely did better.

Unpopular as she may have been with WWCs, there's denial that she definitely did not pull off the Obama Coalition necessary to win, all because of a misguided attempt at "crossover appeal".

And as for Asians, the Paris Accords fiasco has burned that bridge.

If he wins in 2020, it'll be because he took the white vote by 60% or so, or enough voter ID laws got passed in time to lower turnout even more, creating more Wisconsins in the process.