Canadian provinces as US states

[bagelman]

Assume the political culture changes to American. What might the county maps looks like ON, CL (Columbia), MB, NB etc?

Quebec I think would be the most unique among them. It might a titanium D state that did have some rural movement towards Trump '16. 

[Boobs]

Isn't the population of Canada much more urban and concentrated in metro areas than in the US?

Conservatives also do much better than Republicans with Asian populations in those urban areas, so I assume most of those would vote Democratic. Honestly I feel like a decent rule of thumb would be Democrat = Liberal + NDP + Con-voting Asians.

Gut feeling that the Maritimes would be an area particularly affected by Trump and perhaps be the most friendly to him other than the obvious Alberta and Sask/Manitoba.

Territories would vote like Alaska rurals.

I agree with the analysis of Quebec being unique. I'm not sure Trump's brand of populism would work well there, however. It of course depends on the position of the parties on francophonism.

[bagelman]

Here's my take on the west:

Columbia: Safe D, dominated by Metro Vancouver (think Cook IL) which is only getting more D. The 2016 Dem primary was interesting, as Sanders could win despite losing Vancouver County. Republicans in the state generally raise the issue of the Chinese buying up all the middle class housing.

Alberta: Traditionally Safe R, moving towards merely Likely R according to some. Cruz won a landslide in the R primary here.

SA, MB: Both Safe R in 2016 thanks to Trump's populism. Both Safe Sanders in D primary, especially MB.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

This might be a helpful reference - I’ve been flirting with a timeline based around this.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295442.msg6315404;topicseen#msg6315404

[JG]

Considering Quebec is the most secular province/state in North America, as long as the GOP is close with the religious right, there is absolutely no way they make any inroads in Quebec, except maybe for some slight pro-Trump trends in the rural regions.

And the same goes for government spending. Heck, our "center-right" party (the CAQ) made reinvestment in the health system and in education one of their top priorities. There is no way that the GOP as it is now would have any shot at winning any provincestatewide election in Quebec.