VA Gov- Any predictions on the margins in NoVA?

[Bidenworth2020]

my prediction-
loundoun-Northam +3 49-46
Fairfax-Northam +21 59-38
Princes Willaims- Notham +5 50-45
Alexandria- Northam +43 69-26

discuss

[libertpaulian]

When did Maryland counties start voting for VA's governors?

lol

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

When did Maryland counties start voting for VA's governors?

lol

I'm guessing he meant Prince William here

[Keep cool-idge]

Loudoun county 46.7 northam  and 47.1 Gillespie
Prince William county northam 52.1 and 46.8 Gillespie
Fairfax county 59.5 northam and 39.6 Gillespie
Fairfax city 53 northam and Gillespie 44
Falls city 70% northam and 25 Gillespie
Arlington county northam 73% and Gillespie 18%
Alexandria northam 75% and Gillespie 20%
manassas 48.3% northam and 47.1% Gillespie
Manassas park 52% northam and 44.1% Gillespie

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

When did Maryland counties start voting for VA's governors?

lol

There are no Maryland counties on that list.

lol

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

60-37 Fairfax
50-47 Loudon
53-44 Prince William
73-24 Arlington
72-25 Alexandria


All for Northam.

[Cynthia]

60-34 Fairfax
52-44 Loudoun
54-41 Prince William
74-23 Arlington
73-24 Alexandria

[Keep cool-idge]

Everyone does realize Gillespie won loudoun county right?
Also he barely lost prince William in 2014

[Bidenworth2020]

Everyone does realize Gillespie won loudoun county right?
Also he barely lost prince William in 2014

you are comparing a rep wave year election in a purple state to off year election of a state that know leans to the opposition party, lol

[Senator Spark]

Loudoun 48-46 Gillespie
Prince William 51-47 Northam
Fairfax County 58-40 Northam
Fairfax City 52-45 Northam
Falls City 68-31 Northam
Arlington county 72-28 Northam
Alexandria 71-27 Northam
Manassas 48-47 Gillespie
Manassas Park 51-43 Northam

[Smilin Jim]

Gillespie will win Loudoun and Prince William, and therefore the election.

[The Govanah Jake]

62-33% Fairfax

49-45% Loudoun

49-46% Prince William

75-21% Arlington

70-26% Alexandria

[heatcharger]

Gillespie will win Loudoun and Prince William, and therefore the election.

lol

[NewYorkExpress]

A Northam sweep, but he wins everything (except the cities) by less than  ten points, which may not be enough for victory, if he doesn't pick off a few counties and cities elsewhere in the state.

[Keep cool-idge]

Gillespie will win Loudoun and Prince William, and therefore the election.

lol

While I don't think he will win prince William I think he will win the governorship barely as in Gillespie.

[Skill and Chance]

A Northam sweep, but he wins everything (except the cities) by less than  ten points, which may not be enough for victory, if he doesn't pick off a few counties and cities elsewhere in the state.

Any Dem who wins Fairfax County by less than 10 points is beyond toast statewide.  In 2014, it went for Warner by 17 and even that was considered shockingly narrow.

[NewYorkExpress]

A Northam sweep, but he wins everything (except the cities) by less than  ten points, which may not be enough for victory, if he doesn't pick off a few counties and cities elsewhere in the state.

Any Dem who wins Fairfax County by less than 10 points is beyond toast statewide.  In 2014, it went for Warner by 17 and even that was considered shockingly narrow.

I'm also assuming Libertarian turnout (voters disgusted by both Northam and Gillespie) will be unusually high in Fairfax, leading to something like a 50 40-10 win for Northam.

[Nyvin]

Gillespie will win Loudoun and Prince William, and therefore the election.

Gillespie has not led in any polls since March.

[Keep cool-idge]

Gillespie will win Loudoun and Prince William, and therefore the election.

Gillespie has not led in any polls since March.

He also was -9 on average in 2014 all Gillespie needed was a bit of help from the RNC to win

[heatcharger]

A Northam sweep, but he wins everything (except the cities) by less than  ten points, which may not be enough for victory, if he doesn't pick off a few counties and cities elsewhere in the state.

Any Dem who wins Fairfax County by less than 10 points is beyond toast statewide.  In 2014, it went for Warner by 17 and even that was considered shockingly narrow.

I'm also assuming Libertarian turnout (voters disgusted by both Northam and Gillespie) will be unusually high in Fairfax, leading to something like a 50 40-10 win for Northam.

Haha, oh wow. I should let you know that in 2013, when the two candidates were significantly more disliked than Northam and Gillespie, the Libertarian only got 5.2% in Fairfax.

Do you want to explain your assumption that people in Fairfax County will be disgusted by these two candidates? As far as I'm concerned, this is completely baseless, and I don't know how such an idea ever got in your head.

[Figueira]

I don't know enough to make a real guess, but Northam should win this area by a pretty big margin given Gillespie's strategy.

[Smilin Jim]

Gillespie will win Loudoun and Prince William, and therefore the election.

Gillespie has not led in any polls since March.

I don't trust your fake democrat polls. They always underestimate Republicans.

[NewYorkExpress]

A Northam sweep, but he wins everything (except the cities) by less than  ten points, which may not be enough for victory, if he doesn't pick off a few counties and cities elsewhere in the state.

Any Dem who wins Fairfax County by less than 10 points is beyond toast statewide.  In 2014, it went for Warner by 17 and even that was considered shockingly narrow.

I'm also assuming Libertarian turnout (voters disgusted by both Northam and Gillespie) will be unusually high in Fairfax, leading to something like a 50 40-10 win for Northam.

Haha, oh wow. I should let you know that in 2013, when the two candidates were significantly more disliked than Northam and Gillespie, the Libertarian only got 5.2% in Fairfax.

Do you want to explain your assumption that people in Fairfax County will be disgusted by these two candidates? As far as I'm concerned, this is completely baseless, and I don't know how such an idea ever got in your head.

You're the Virginia expert, and you would know better than I, so if you say this theory is baseless, then I believe you.

[SATW]

Loudoun County: 49-48% Northam (will be, by far, the closest NOVA county)
Fairfax County: 60-37% Northam
Prince William County: 55-43% Northam (you guys are overestimating Gilliespie's support here)
Arlington County: 73-25% Northam
Alexandria City: 70-27% Northam

I think it's still possible for him to win VA-GOV without doing amazing in NOVA, but he definitely needs to hit 40% in Prince William county (preferably higher, in the 42-45% range), either win in Loudoun county or lose by no more than 3%, be at or over 25% in Arlington/Alexandria and at least 35-37% in Fairfax County.