Trump and minority voters in 2020

[American2020]

Discuss.

[PoliticalJunkie23]

I accidentally clicked Asians, but I meant Hispanics.  It's only ~8 months in and Trump's policies (especially his recent ending of DACA) will completely alienate him among Hispanics). Of course it is way too early to make a decent prediction, as many things will change between now and November 3, 2020.

[AN63093]

I voted other.  I actually think the racial group Trump probably sees the greatest percentage drop in will be whites.

Conventional wisdom will say Hispanics, but I'm not buying it.  Trump ran arguably the most hard-line campaign on immigration in recent memory, and he actually improved on Romney's numbers (very slightly, but still).  This suggests to me that the GOP has hit a floor with Hispanics.  Among Hispanics who care about illegal immigration, DACA, etc., I'd guess at least 99%+ are already voting D.

How many Hispanic voters do we really think there are out there who supported Trump, stuck with him throughout the entire campaign, voted for him, and now are finally like- that's the straw that broke the camel's back!  I'm voting D now!

That describes pretty much no one.  I'm sure there will be some Hispanics that flip, but it will mostly be either a) low information voters who weren't really following the campaigns in '12, or b) Hispanics who don't care about immigration but care about other issues.  How many of these people are there out there?  I just don't think it's significant.  Maybe Trump declines a few % points or two among Hispanics, but it's not going to go to like 0 or something shocking like that.

If Trump's numbers drastically decline with any minority, it won't be because of anything Trump does or doesn't do, but because the Dems nominated a candidate with uniquely strong minority appeal that drives turnout way up.

[Suburbia]

Most likely Hispanics. I see him gaining a bit with some African-American voters.

[Greedo punched first]

Maybe Catholics or Mormons? He probably hasn't reached the floor with them already.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Hispanics.

Nomatter who the Democratic nominee is, I expect them to perform better among younger voters than Hillary Clinton did. Since Hispanics skew much younger than any other racial/ethnic group, I suspect they'll cause the overall demographic to trend against Trump more than Asians, blacks, or whites.

Idk, most young hispanics I know, myself included are pretty republican. Especially if we have a white or asian parent and a hispanic one. Although being in New Hampshire i doubt were really representative of the entire demographic. But white/hispanic mixes are becoming very common and integrate into the county and culture very well

[Mr. Smith]

Given the C'ville affair and likely soft support of white supremacy to come, probably blacks.


Mormons are the one minority that may actually see a rise just because of all the conventionally R moves he's made. It won't be a yuge rise, probably only enough to win Utah by the low 50's rather than 45%.

[Holmes]

Most likely Hispanics. I see him gaining a bit with some African-American voters.

In what world

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There's basically no way it can be blacks, just because Trump is already basically at rock bottom with them.

I voted Asians, because they're the most educated group, where I think Trump will sink even more in 2020, where I expect him to do worse across the board, but especially amongst educated. He'll drop amongst Hispanics too, but most who'd be really offended by him weren't going to vote for him in the first place in 2016. The rest of the choices aren't minority groups and don't belong in the poll.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Mormons, literally any democrat even a modicum better than Clinton would break 30% in Utah, and with no mucmuffins, could even get a quarter of the vote.

[AN63093]

I voted other.  I actually think the racial group Trump probably sees the greatest percentage drop in will be whites.

Whites are not a minority group. I know they're sort of in the poll (Mormons and Christians), but they're not a minority group.

LOL yeah I know.  I was trying to say (inelegantly, perhaps) that since I think Trump is mostly already at a floor with minority groups, I voted "other" to say that if he declines with any racial/ethnic group, it won't be a minority group at all, but whites.  If there was a "none of the above" option, I would've voted that.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I say Whites or Blacks. I feel like there is social desirability that comes with voting Republican in the Hispanics and Asian community that is not found in older minorities like Blacks and Natives. Because many people say that GOP is the party of whites some people in the immigrant community see that a a symbol of assimilation into America. For that reason Blacks are the obvious answer they are more likely to take offense of Charlottesville, Arpaio pardon, and DACA than Hispanics. Just check every poll Blacks are more pro Hispanics than Hispanics are of themselves. 

[dw93]

Hispanics, especially if Congress fails to come up with a replacement for DACA and deportations start as a result. People forget, Trump did better with Hispanics than Romney did, with DACA ending, he's likely to do worse. This may also effect the Catholic Vote, as many Catholics in this country are Hispanic. Most White Catholics however will probably stick with Trump over abortion. Trump's share of Mormon votes  might fall to as 2016 proved he was a terrible fit for them. So long as we don't see another Charlottesville or any Fergusons break out in 2019 or 2020, I could actually see Trump doing the same, if not slightly better with Black voters. Asian voters will more or less stay the same.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Just check every poll Blacks are more pro Hispanics than Hispanics are of themselves. 

Can I see that poll? Those results would be interesting to see.

Well few polls show 4 races category but I know a morning consultant post a while back showed Blacks approve of DACA more than Hispanics. PPP and Quinnipiac latest poll show African Americans are more likely to disapprove of Trump handling of Charlottesville. The current Economist poll show a tie on Arpaio pardon and favorability despite Arpaio action target mostly the Hispanic community of Maricopa.  I'm sure more polls to release will show the same.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

After destroying DACA, Trump will be lucky to get 10% of the hispanic vote, a demographic the GOP won in 2004.