Which candidates will only run if they think they have a good shot at winning?

[Mr. Morden]

Out of the most commonly named potential Democratic candidates, which of them will only run if they think they have a good shot at winning the nomination, and which will run no matter what (because hey, I have nothing better to do than run for president)?

And for that matter, among those who will only run if they think they have a good chance, which of them will be clear eyed about assessing their chances, and which will delude themselves into thinking they have a good chance?

E.g., we’re largely agreed that Martin O’Malley is a near lock to run, despite being an extreme longshot to win.  But is that because he’s deluded himself into thinking he can win?  Or is he realistic about his chances, but figures he might as well run for president anyway, because why not?

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

I would expect all of them? The only candidates I expect to run to raise their national profile would be Bullock, Klobuchar, maybe Harris, and maaaaaybe John Bel Edwards

[Mr. Morden]

I would expect all of them? The only candidates I expect to run to raise their national profile would be Bullock, Klobuchar, maybe Harris, and maaaaaybe John Bel Edwards

O'Malley is doing umpteen different early state visits and generally acting like a candidate, yet I don't think he has much chance of winning.  So has he simply deluded himself into thinking that he can win?  Or is he going to run despite knowing that he's a super longshot, because you never know?

And really, same question for other folks, like say Cuomo and McAuliffe.  They've got some pretty serious impediments to being able to reach a critical mass of popularity among Democratic primary voters.  So does that mean that they won't run?  Or will they talk themselves into thinking that they can win even if they can't?  Or will they realize that they're longshots, but run anyway?

[TheSaint250]

O'Malley is 100% running because he has nothing to do.

[Rjjr77]

I do not believe Kamala Harris will run. So unless she had overwhelming crazy support will she.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

The older candidates who've already been through the ringer won't go for it again unless they see a non-negligible opening. I think this applies to all of Sanders, Biden, and Clinton.

Count people like Joe and Hillary out at your own peril, though. If the field turns into a bit of a clown car with no clear qualified front-runner like 2016 did for the GOP, expect calls for a veteran with gravitas to seriously consider entering the race. It happened when Romney flirted with a third run, and while I think it's clear now that there was no way to stop Trump's movement, Romney being in the race would have changed everything. If we've got a bunch of candidates polling around 12% into the fall of 2019, a Clinton candidacy would not be a sure bet to lose... she could attract a faithful core following of around 20%-25% nationally, which might be enough to win some of the early states and gain serious momentum.

People would be pissed and it would be much closer than her 2016 blowout against Sanders, but elections aren't supposed to be easy.

[MAINEiac4434]

Biden.