Will Jones win Madison County and Mobile County?

[IceSpear]

These two should be interesting to watch. Jones could still win them even if Moore wins comfortably overall. In 2012, Moore lost Madison by 4 and Mobile by 7.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Jones wins Mobile by 3 while losing Madison by 2.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Adding to the list:

Shelby County (upper-middle class Birmingham suburbs)
Tuscaloosa County
Lee County (Auburn/Opelika)

All are normally Safe R

[IceSpear]

Yes, he probably wins both counties, unless he somehow loses by 6 or more points statewide.

Would that really surprise you that much?

The thing is, if anything, I expect the gap between Madison/Mobile and the statewide result to grow. So even if my Moore +8 prediction ends up being correct, I'm still uncertain about these.

[Oryxslayer]

If Jones doesn't win either of these counties, or electorally similar Tuscaloosa, he isn't winning. The three as a whole are probably good benchmarks to see if there is a chance on election night for a Jones win. I say Jones wins the trio, but doesn't win overall.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Mobile: Tilt No

Madison: Lean No.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Yes, he probably wins both counties, unless he somehow loses by 6 or more points statewide.

[MT Treasurer]

Yes, he probably wins both counties, unless he somehow loses by 6 or more points statewide.

Would that really surprise you that much?

Yes, because there's no indication that this is likely to happen.

[TDAS04]

I could see Jones winning Mobile even while losing the race by 10.

[Mr. Smith]

Even Strange won Madison, so I don't see why Moore'd win it again.

Pretty doubtful about Mobile.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

- Madison County: Yes

- Mobile County: Yes and the size of the margin will really surprise some folks, Busby will also do pretty well here (relative to his statewide percentage)

- Shelby County - No

- Tuscaloosa County - Yes, and we're gonna see a ton of Republican crossover votes for Jones here.  Moore is going to get absolutely blown out of the water here and while not a sure thing, I could easily see Jones getting something like 58-60% here even if the write-ins get 5%-7% statewide

- Lee County - I honestly don't know enough about Lee County to say

[Xing]

Probably, but it won't matter

[IceSpear]

Yes, he probably wins both counties, unless he somehow loses by 6 or more points statewide.

Would that really surprise you that much?

Yes, because there's no indication that this is likely to happen.

Moore is ahead by 4 on RCP, so a 6 point win would hardly be a huge miss. Also, it's Alabama.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Yes to both. Moore lost them in 2012, and he likely isn't gonna do better this time around after the allegations. As said earlier, he'll also probably lose Tuscaloosa. Moore will almost certainly win Shelby County, though there will probably be a significant trend towards Jones here; It did swing D in 2016.

[Badger]

Yes to both. Moore lost them in 2012, and he likely isn't gonna do better this time around after the allegations. As said earlier, he'll also probably lose Tuscaloosa. Moore will almost certainly win Shelby County, though there will probably be a significant trend towards Jones here; It did swing D in 2016.

This.

[Holmes]

Madison: yes
Mobile: yes
Shelby: no
Tuscaloosa: yes
Lee: yes

[Del Tachi]

I've been spending a lot of time in Alabama here recently.

Jefferson will be huge for Jones, something like +17 or +18 wouldn't surprise me.

Madison will go for Jones with under 50%, probably more write-ins here than other places in the state

Jones looks very strong on the ground in Tuscaloosa, I'll say Jones wins it by +2 or  +3

Not so sure about Mobile/Lee, but I'll put them both as lean Jones.

Shelby will go for Moore.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, and he needs double digit margins in both of them.

[Wisconsin+17]

No to either. Sorry for the other thread. Can a mod merge that post to this thread thank you?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

No to either. Yes to both.

[Holmes]

Yes and yes, but it won't matter

Do I get at least partial credit for these? lol

Sure but I get full credit.