Do the odds favor Trumpcare passing?

[Higgins]

As someone on Medicaid who doesn't want to sort through 20 odd pages of very technical Congress talk, can I get a simple yes or no? Will I and others in my low income situation end up without Medicaid?

[tallguy23]

The most likely would be the "skinny repeal" which basically repeals the taxes and mandate. Medicaid expansion and regulations would still be protected.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The problem with "Repeal and Replace" is that some Republicans only want to "Repeal", while others (who have been somewhat intellectually dishonest) are only in favor of "Repeal" if there is a suitable "replacement" that will not cause revolt in their bailiwicks.

To "fix" Obamacare, even in the vein of making it more conservative, is surrender for too many Republicans.  This is a can they now want to kick down the road.

[The Other Castro]

It remains more likely than not that Trumpcare fails to pass the Senate, but there is obviously some risk that something does eventually pass. The current trajectory of the Senate bill, should it pass, appears to be that "skinny repeal" idea that would remove the individual mandate but not cut medicaid in the same way the BCRA does. If they then bring that skinny repeal bill to conference with the House, however, I would expect that some kind of medicaid reduction would be reinstated. But, then we're back to the House and Senate each trying to pass a new bill, and this starts again. Short answer is that it's not as simple as yes or no.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The most likely would be the "skinny repeal" which basically repeals the taxes and mandate. Medicaid expansion and regulations would still be protected.

[ProudModerate2]

I would give it about a 30 to 40% chance that some kind of "replace" TrumpCareDeath Insurance bill will pass.

I straight repeal-only bill has about 5 to 10% chance of passing.

[7,052,770]

I give the Senate a 90% of passing something, with the most likely being "skinny repeal" or whatever nonsense. Whether the conference committee is able to come up with something to satisfy enough people in both houses to pass I can't say yet, but I have no faith in any Republicans not to fold under pressure.

[tallguy23]

The most likely would be the "skinny repeal" which basically repeals the taxes and mandate. Medicaid expansion and regulations would still be protected.

Sounds familiar:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

GOP = Always a disaster

If skinny replace causes everyone's insurance premiums to rise, 2018 will be an epic disaster.

[7,052,770]

If skinny replace causes everyone's insurance premiums to rise, 2018 will be an epic disaster.

If the Democrats can convince everyone that it really is Republicans' fault. Republicans will surely just blame Obamacare.

[Adam Griffin]

Let's hope it does. I want the Republican Party to die a miserable death like it deserved after 2008.

[Orser67]

I'd give less than 50-50 odds on the Senate passing a bill, at least in 2017. I'd say there's maybe a 25% chance that Congress and Trump actually pass a bill.

[Ronnie]

Let's hope it does. I want the Republican Party to die a miserable death like it deserved after 2008.

No political victory is worth the (probable) deaths of thousands of people.

[Adam Griffin]

Let's hope it does. I want the Republican Party to die a miserable death like it deserved after 2008.

No political victory is worth the (probable) deaths of thousands of people.

Sure it is. Otherwise magnitudes more are going to die by virtue of them remaining a viable political force. Just because it'd make your conscience feel better doesn't mean it's the morally superior option.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Let's hope it does. I want the Republican Party to die a miserable death like it deserved after 2008.

Your establishment hack candidates like Ossoff will still lose. Sad!

[TheSaint250]

Trumpcare won't pass because it doesn't exist. McConnellCare, however, will, because it's s***.

Let's be honest, Trump didn't help create this at all.

[Adam Griffin]

Let's hope it does. I want the Republican Party to die a miserable death like it deserved after 2008.

Your establishment hack candidates like Ossoff will still lose. Sad!

Not sure how they're my candidates.

Also, daily reminder that "your" candidates have yet to ever win! Maybe if they finally do, you'll stop being such an angsty bitch.

[Adam Griffin]

Trumpcare won't pass because it doesn't exist. McConnellCare, however, will, because it's s***.

Let's be honest, Trump didn't help create this at all.

If it passes, it means he signs it. He'll own it. Or do you think Obama was slaving away in the bowels of the Capitol crafting ACA himself?

[Ronnie]

Let's hope it does. I want the Republican Party to die a miserable death like it deserved after 2008.

No political victory is worth the (probable) deaths of thousands of people.

Sure it is. Otherwise magnitudes more are going to die by virtue of them remaining a viable political force. Just because it'd make your conscience feel better doesn't mean it's the morally superior option.

You would potentially have a point if passing the bill would guarantee their demise.  I'm not sure I agree with that premise.  Right wing tribalism is incredibly intense, and conservative media commentators and Trump himself would do their best to deflect blame on to the left/liberal elite, and change the subject, as they always do.  Even if they are not wholly successful, factors like gerrymandering, voter suppression, and geographical voter distribution will go a long way to protect Republicans from anything but the largest of midterm tsunamis.

[TheSaint250]

Trumpcare won't pass because it doesn't exist. McConnellCare, however, will, because it's s***.

Let's be honest, Trump didn't help create this at all.

If it passes, it means he signs it. He'll own it. Or do you think Obama was slaving away in the bowels of the Capitol crafting ACA himself?

He certainly did more about it than trump is now

[OSR stands with Israel]

Let's hope it does. I want the Republican Party to die a miserable death like it deserved after 2008.

If the GOP didnt die after 1932 its not going to die in the near future.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to John Boehner chances are at 0%.

[Pericles]

Let's hope it does. I want the Republican Party to die a miserable death like it deserved after 2008.

If the GOP didnt die after 1932 its not going to die in the near future.

Still, I'd love for the GOP to triangulate as they did after the New Deal and as the Democrats did after the Reagan Revolution.