https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:AL_Gerrymander.png1st: 74.2% W, 19.1% B, 6.7% O, 27.1% O, 72.3% M, 31.8% Democrat, 68.2% Republican, R+26.3
2nd: 85.0% W, 6.6% B, 8.4% O, 28.5% O, 70.2% M, 43.5% D, 56.5% R, R+27.1
3rd: 79.4% W, 13.4% B, 7.2% O, 25.6% O, 73.5% M, 32.8% D, 67.2% R, R+27.2
4th: 83.8% W, 9.6% B, 6.6% O, 22.4% O, 76.6% M, 29.1% D, 70.9% R, R+29.3
5th: 52.5% W, 41.3% B, 6.2% O, 52.5% O, 46.9% M, 53.6% D, 46.4% R, D+.2
6th: 45.7% W, 46.6% B, 7.7% O, 60.1% O, 39.3% M, 64.3% D, 35.7% R, D+7.5
7th: 48.7% W, 45.6% B, 5.7% O, 54.7% O, 44.8% M, 54.6% D, 45.4% R, D+2.9
The 1st, 3rd, and 4th are rock solid R, up and down ballot. The 2nd might maybe barely elect a blue dog in a landslide if the republican is Roy Moore, but I’d still put it as Solid R.
The 5th is shifting republican, but it still has a democratic down ballot advantage and every democrat recently has carried it. In 2014 it might have gone R but it’d probably return in 2016. Lean D.
The 6th is pretty solidly democratic, and inelastic. Solid D.
The 7th is one of the few districts in the south where Obama outran generic D. It has a decently high average margin and PVI, and is probably Likely D.
In a normal year, Democrats win 3 seats, and in a republican wave 2. In a massive wave the 7th might flip, but under almost all circumstances the Democrats would win as more seats as they do now.
This obviously ignores the VRA, but still, gerrymandering has made a big impact on Alabama, and the US.
