Where are you now on the probability of Biden and Sanders running?

[Mr. Morden]

If either Biden or Sanders were just five years younger, they'd be near the very top of the rankings of who is most likely to run for the 2020 Dem. nomination.  (Heck, Biden has visited New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada just in the last month or so.  All he's missing is Iowa.)  But they're not five years younger.  Both will be in their late 70s by Inauguration Day 2021, which is beyond the normal "retirement age" for presidential candidates.  So I put a significant discount on their chances of running, though there's no easy mathematical formula to tell us how big a discount that should be.

PredictIt now has Sanders as 30% likely to run, which my gut says is a little high, but not by much.  They don't have a similar market for Biden.

So what kind of betting probability would you currently give for Biden running?  And same question for Sanders.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I don't have an issue with Biden running. Who says he has to be a two-term president? He can go in there do his thing for four years and leave. I would vote for him. This age thing means nothing. Anyone could drop dead from anything.