Which state is more likely to flip in 2020?

[Xing]

A certain poster will have a very difficult time with this one. I think that, in both of these states, Trump has potential to gain and lose a decent amount of support. In Wisconsin, he has room for growth in the WOW counties, but could easily lose support in the Southwestern part of the state. In New Hampshire, he could gain in Hillsborough and Rockingham, but may very well lose some support in a county like Coos.

I also think that unless he's incredibly popular or historically unpopular, it's unlikely that he'll only gain or only lose support in these states. For example, if he governs like a generic Republican, I expect him to do better in the WOW counties, but to also lose support in some of the counties Obama won. It seems that the strategies for doing well in both of these regions are mutually exclusive.

[Xing]

So, that means New Hampshire?

[Mr. Smith]

If 2018 behaves like a usual midterm, Wisconsin

If it continues the old "low turnout = GOP blowout" thing, NH.

[TDAS04]

Wisconsin

[Xing]

WI is a Tossup or Tilt/Lean R at best for Republicans, but if NH is in danger of flipping, it'll be a GOP blowout of historic proportions (an outcome which I don't consider likely at this point )

Also, having Kuster, CSP, Shaheen and a Democratic female candidate for governor on the ballot should help boost turnout in NH.

You're still not giving up on NH being Titanium D, huh? I guess those 3,000 votes Trump lost by must be harder to win over than hundreds of thousands of votes in other states...

[DPKdebator]

You're still not giving up on NH being Titanium D, huh? I guess those 3,000 votes Trump lost by must be harder to win over than hundreds of thousands of votes in other states...

I acknowledge that it's not as solidly Democratic as I thought (though still very Democratic and definitely more liberal than Maine), but if a Democrat loses the state, they will have lost the election loooong ago.

Unlike Maine, NH doesn't really seem to have concrete voter regions (i.e. ME has the liberal south but more conservative north).