NV-2: Amodei leads Generic Democrat by 1 (PPP)

[Terry the Fat Shark]

http://www.savemycare.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/NV2Results-20170510.pdf (please move this if it's in the wrong place, didn't see a house polling type thing):

New PPP poll conducted on behalf of "Save my Care" (Pro Obamacare group) shows Amodei only beating "Generic Democrat" 46-45% in Nevada's 2nd congressional district. Amodei is more unfavorable than favorable, but President Trump's approval rating is actually above water here which might be the saving grace as of now.

[Figueira]

It would be amazing if there was a Nevada-shaped Atlas Red island in a sea of Atlas Blue on the House map.

[Xing]

I highly doubt NV-02 is in danger of flipping, but if Republican margins here aren't strong, Heller should be very worried.

[Figueira]

I highly doubt NV-02 is in danger of flipping, but if Republican margins here aren't strong, Heller should be very worried.

It should be a Democratic target at leeast.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Despite being a somewhat partisan poll (based on who it was conducted for), this seems to be a very good and representative sample. The "who did you vote for" is Trump 51-39, it was actually Trump 52-40 so all things considered this is probably a pretty good snapshot of how things are here right now.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This seat is not winnable. But Heller's is winnable. Let's focus on that one.

[publicunofficial]

Generic Democrat 2020

[McGovernForPrez]

Despite being a somewhat partisan poll (based on who it was conducted for), this seems to be a very good and representative sample. The "who did you vote for" is Trump 51-39, it was actually Trump 52-40 so all things considered this is probably a pretty good snapshot of how things are here right now.

It's a partisan poll, but PPP is probably one of the best partisan pollsters out there. IIRC they have a B from 538.

[GlobeSoc]

Generic Democrat is truly a top recruit.

[KingSweden]

Generic Democrat is truly a top recruit.

They always poll really well early on, too

[Xing]

I highly doubt NV-02 is in danger of flipping, but if Republican margins here aren't strong, Heller should be very worried.

It should be a Democratic target at leeast.

Naturally, Democrats should try to run a good candidate here, but I think this would sooner be their 235th seat than their 218th seat.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Despite being a somewhat partisan poll (based on who it was conducted for), this seems to be a very good and representative sample. The "who did you vote for" is Trump 51-39, it was actually Trump 52-40 so all things considered this is probably a pretty good snapshot of how things are here right now.

It's a partisan poll, but PPP is probably one of the best partisan pollsters out there. IIRC they have a B from 538.

B+ with an R+0.2 bias, based on 383 polls.  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[Holmes]

This seat is not winnable. But Heller's is winnable. Let's focus on that one.

It's not either/or. Democrats can have a reverse 2014 in Nevada by winning the governor's race, the Senate seat, NV-02, and many seats in the state legislature.

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah, at this point, we need to be treating anywhere from 90-120 GOP-held seats as if they're winnable. Get top-tier recruits, begin initial investments, and then triage as needed.

[McGovernForPrez]

Yeah, at this point, we need to be treating anywhere from 90-120 GOP-held seats as if they're winnable. Get top-tier recruits, begin initial investments, and then triage as needed.

As they say, you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

[UncleSam]

IMO not a great pickup opportunity but a real candidate would make Republicans sweat and distract resources from the two swingy districts Democrats hold in Nevada.

I'm curious from that poll, as a Trump +12 district, given recent polling showing Trump immensely popular among his own voters, you would not expect to suddenly become competitive. I wonder if Trump voters still support Trump but are losing patience with congressional Republicans - such a scenario would be huge for Democrats in 2018, though I am still skeptical of their chances of knocking Trump off in 2020 even with a midterm schellacking.