KS-4 Predictions?

[Shadows]

So the R internal false flag was not right, Estes won by a solid 8 despite Thompson doing far better than the presidential & past Congressional results would suggest (and my prediction). At the end of the day, a win is a win. Perhaps if Thompson had run more as a conservative, he could have won.

LMAO. The fact Thompson ran as a populist is the reason he came so close.

Proof? And there's a difference between running as a populist and running to the left. Any ideology can run as a populist. But leftists don't win in Kansas.

Leftists won everywhere when there was FDR & all this lines collapsed. Anyways if running as a moderate & moving to the center would increase electability then an extremist like Trump would never have defeated HRC !

[Chief Justice Keef]

So the R internal false flag was not right, Estes won by a solid 8 despite Thompson doing far better than the presidential & past Congressional results would suggest (and my prediction). At the end of the day, a win is a win. Perhaps if Thompson had run more as a conservative, he could have won.

LMAO. The fact Thompson ran as a populist is the reason he came so close.

Proof? And there's a difference between running as a populist and running to the left. Any ideology can run as a populist. But leftists don't win in Kansas.

By running as a "Berniecrat" essentially, Thompson outperformed Clinton in every county in the district. That should be seen as proof that Bernie's message resonates more with rural voters than a centrist Blue Dog approach would've.

[Beet]

So the R internal false flag was not right, Estes won by a solid 8 despite Thompson doing far better than the presidential & past Congressional results would suggest (and my prediction). At the end of the day, a win is a win. Perhaps if Thompson had run more as a conservative, he could have won.

LMAO. The fact Thompson ran as a populist is the reason he came so close.

Proof? And there's a difference between running as a populist and running to the left. Any ideology can run as a populist. But leftists don't win in Kansas.

By running as a "Berniecrat" essentially, Thompson outperformed Clinton in every county in the district. That should be seen as proof that Bernie's message resonates more with rural voters than a centrist Blue Dog approach would've.

Clinton was not a centrist Blue Dog, lol. I'm saying he should have said stuff like he wouldn't vote for Pelosi for speaker, he was pro-life, and so on.

[Chief Justice Keef]

So the R internal false flag was not right, Estes won by a solid 8 despite Thompson doing far better than the presidential & past Congressional results would suggest (and my prediction). At the end of the day, a win is a win. Perhaps if Thompson had run more as a conservative, he could have won.

LMAO. The fact Thompson ran as a populist is the reason he came so close.

Proof? And there's a difference between running as a populist and running to the left. Any ideology can run as a populist. But leftists don't win in Kansas.

By running as a "Berniecrat" essentially, Thompson outperformed Clinton in every county in the district. That should be seen as proof that Bernie's message resonates more with rural voters than a centrist Blue Dog approach would've.

Clinton was not a centrist Blue Dog, lol. I'm saying he should have said stuff like he wouldn't vote for Pelosi for speaker, he was pro-life, and so on.

Clinton ran further to the right of Sanders, at the very least, and yet a Bernie guy won more votes in rural Kansas than Clinton did in presidential election.

[Beet]

So the R internal false flag was not right, Estes won by a solid 8 despite Thompson doing far better than the presidential & past Congressional results would suggest (and my prediction). At the end of the day, a win is a win. Perhaps if Thompson had run more as a conservative, he could have won.

LMAO. The fact Thompson ran as a populist is the reason he came so close.

Proof? And there's a difference between running as a populist and running to the left. Any ideology can run as a populist. But leftists don't win in Kansas.

By running as a "Berniecrat" essentially, Thompson outperformed Clinton in every county in the district. That should be seen as proof that Bernie's message resonates more with rural voters than a centrist Blue Dog approach would've.

Clinton was not a centrist Blue Dog, lol. I'm saying he should have said stuff like he wouldn't vote for Pelosi for speaker, he was pro-life, and so on.

Clinton ran further to the right of Sanders, at the very least, and yet a Bernie guy won more votes in rural Kansas than Clinton did in presidential election.

Then why did he still lose? If the Bernie policies were so popular? 53% of the district still voted for a conservative. So it proves you need more conservatism. Unless you think a communist would have won, which I doubt.

[Xing]

My prediction:

56% Estes (R)
41% Thompson (D)
3% Rockhold (L)

Oh well. Yeah, predicting special elections is never an easy thing to do. I won't bother trying to seriously predict GA-06 and MT-AL anymore.

Honestly, predictions are just educated guesses, and everyone's bound to be wrong at least some of the time. Most of my 2016 predictions were garbage, and while my prediction for this race was pretty close, that was probably just luck more than anything else.

[jamestroll]

Estes 53
Thompson 43

My prediction was not too far off. Underestimated the Democratic percentage a bit.

[Figueira]

So the R internal false flag was not right, Estes won by a solid 8 despite Thompson doing far better than the presidential & past Congressional results would suggest (and my prediction). At the end of the day, a win is a win. Perhaps if Thompson had run more as a conservative, he could have won.

LMAO. The fact Thompson ran as a populist is the reason he came so close.

Proof? And there's a difference between running as a populist and running to the left. Any ideology can run as a populist. But leftists don't win in Kansas.

By running as a "Berniecrat" essentially, Thompson outperformed Clinton in every county in the district. That should be seen as proof that Bernie's message resonates more with rural voters than a centrist Blue Dog approach would've.

I don't think his support of Sanders really mattered; it's just that he actually attacked Estes from the left rather than saying "Vote for me! I'm almost as conservative as the other guy!"

[Person Man]

This thread gave me a little more confidence that we can predict elections again and that the anti-populists won't keep winning 51-49 forever dispite polls.

[The Arizonan]

@realDonaldTrump

Great win in Kansas last night for Ron Estes, easily winning the Congressional race against the Dems, who spent heavily & predicted victory!

I wonder what Donald Trump's Twitter response would have been if James Thompson had won.

[Crumpets]

@realDonaldTrump

Great win in Kansas last night for Ron Estes, easily winning the Congressional race against the Dems, who spent heavily & predicted victory!

I wonder what Donald Trump's Twitter response would have been if James Thompson had won.

"Illegal voters give Dems PV victory in KS-4 despite Ron Estes winning huge majority of counties. Sad!"

[The Arizonan]

@realDonaldTrump

Great win in Kansas last night for Ron Estes, easily winning the Congressional race against the Dems, who spent heavily & predicted victory!

I wonder what Donald Trump's Twitter response would have been if James Thompson had won.

"Illegal voters give Dems PV victory in KS-4 despite Ron Estes winning huge majority of counties. Sad!"

I can't wait to see his Twitter meltdown when Jon Ossoff wins the special election next week.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Estes (R) - 52%
Thompson (D) - 46%
Rockhold (L) - 2%

Damn dude! Spot on! Good Job!