Sabato: How Midterms Do (and Do Not) Differ From Presidential Elections

[Anna Komnene]

It will definitely be lower turnout, but the biggest question for me will be who is turning out.  Sabato makes a good point about more educated voting, but the reason is because that makes them more likely to tune into politics, follow the news, research candidates, and most importantly, schedule a time to go vote on election day.  That is incredibly important since it's not that easy for a lot of people to vote with work, family, and all of their other obligations. 

However, I think that Trump's twitter could change that.  Unless Trump is an absolute moron, his followers will be getting daily reminders to go vote, probably sprinkled in with pro-Republican comments and links to various stupid things Democrats said during the campaign, along with Trump's #analysis.  (Sad!  Terrible!  Not Good!)  Normally, many of his followers might not have had the time to tune in to politics enough to care, but now it's easy.  All they have to do is look at Trump's twitter feed every few days.  Afaik, a good number of those voters were new or hadn't voted in a while in 2016.  As long as Trump doesn't alienate them over the next 2 years, I really wouldn't be surprised to see them turn out again for the midterm.

The problem for Democrats is while the left (especially the young left), is active on twitter, the Democrats don't have as strong an organizing presence on twitter.  There's Bernie and a few others, but their reach is more limited and fragmented into smaller factions that dislike each other (Sanders supporters/Booker supporters, etc).  It could potentially be much more difficult for Democrats to organize because of that.  Twitter could really change US elections forever in ways that Sabato's analysis doesn't account for.

[Pericles]

And yet this site thinks 2018 will exactly mirror 2014 and 2010 for the GOP.

have you looked at the Senate map.

Ever stop to think why those seats are in Democrat hands. Democrats won them in a good year, 2012, and it's hard to see them losing them in a better year, 2018?

[smoltchanov]

And yet this site thinks 2018 will exactly mirror 2014 and 2010 for the GOP.

have you looked at the Senate map.

Ever stop to think why those seats are in Democrat hands. Democrats won them in a good year, 2012, and it's hard to see them losing them in a better year, 2018?

There are doubts it will be better then 2012 though...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are likely to win key governorships and House races that are in these gov races like OH, IL, MI, NV, FL, ME, and WI are critical as well as in some southern states like GA and TX. 

That's why Dems are seething at the opportunity of 6-10 gov pickups and House majority

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

And yet this site thinks 2018 will exactly mirror 2014 and 2010 for the GOP.

have you looked at the Senate map.

Ever stop to think why those seats are in Democrat hands. Democrats won them in a good year, 2012, and it's hard to see them losing them in a better year, 2018?

There are doubts it will be better then 2012 though...

Yeah, you'd think people would be a tad less overconfident after what happened in 2014 and 2016. Not saying 2018 can't be a good year for Democrats, but even better than the landslide they had in 2012? Highly unlikely, especially with the attitude the party has towards voters in rural areas and Republican voters in general.

2012 was less a wave and more a decent year politically where the democrats performed well, had good candidates, got some lucky bad candidates(partially helped by some ratf***ing), etc

[Devout Centrist]

The Senate will see GOP gains for sure, but I think people are shortselling the Democrats in the House. Just a few points swing in California is enough to kill several GOP congressional members.

[hopper]

Nah. Collins is an institution in Maine. Maine, like West Virginia Montana, is more politically complicated than it appears.

ftfy

Yeah, Collins won't go away, unfortunately. If she were to retire, I'd rate it a Tossup and not Lean D, though.

Rate it Toss-up/Tilt D probably. Probably Bellows would be the candidate for the Dems if Collins ran for Governor.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The Senate will see GOP gains for sure, but I think people are shortselling the Democrats in the House. Just a few points swing in California is enough to kill several GOP congressional members.

Yeah I did some research an there are 4 other rep congressmen next to Issa who are sitting in districts that are either swing or trending D. So that could be 5 picks ups in California which is very believeable seeing as that state is ground zero for Trump hate

[Devout Centrist]

The Senate will see GOP gains for sure, but I think people are shortselling the Democrats in the House. Just a few points swing in California is enough to kill several GOP congressional members.

Yeah I did some research an there are 4 other rep congressmen next to Issa who are sitting in districts that are either swing or trending D. So that could be 5 picks ups in California which is very believeable seeing as that state is ground zero for Trump hate

Orange County hates Trump. It's starting to look bad when my Christian, mostly masculine guys who are my friends start saying things like, 'Damn, Trump's an idiot. Bernie Sanders is actually pretty good,' when they were either apolitical or lean R last year.

I mean, there's a few who have join Turning Points, USA, but they're a minority.