Why your favorite small city mayor or niche activist will not be President.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I’ve seen quite a few “X Y or Z small city mayor, activist, or personality should be President!" posts on this forum. Many from my own wing of the party. Let's put that to bed.
Running for President is hard. Here's a timeline for a hypothetical 2020 run. Let's say you don't want a superPAC, just to make this simpler.

Jan 2014 - Nov 2018

1) Build whatever national profile you can. Get good press, put your name in the "national discourse" go to big party events like CPAC for GOP or that CAP event that happened early this year. Get yourself vaguely known by the public.
   1a) You should also be developing your "lane." Establish a brand for yourself, get yourself known in the right circles for those of that ideology. This can be as diverse as Cory Booker making lots of friends in Congress, going on a podcast that broadcasts to the Democratic base like Pod Save America, or Bernie's standing engagement with Ed Schulz and Thom Hartmann in the years leading up to the 2016 primary. But you should be figuring out how you're gonna run and who you're going to be appealing to very early on.

2) Start visiting large donors floating a run, attend fundraisers for other candidates in-cycle, establish a reputation within the party as being a prominent person helping people out. This is optional if you want to be a Bernie-esque Prog Populist, but since almost all candidates do it it's included here.

3) Campaign in important primary states for candidates in swing-candidates. This both gets you known to the party establishment in the state (who, let's face it, are definitely going to be voting) maybe gives you a few office holders in your debt, and lets you 'test out' a message for your campaign.

   3a) Note that this means you need a vague notion of where your key primary states are going to be. Cory Booker wasn't going down to the deep south to fight for voting rights purely out of the goodness of his heart. He knows that he will need a strong showing in the South if he wants to challenge DTrump. Sure, IA, NH, SC, and NV are givens but you need to think about the backfield, too.

4) Following from 3, introduce yourself to key 'grasstops' in those target states. Bernie didn't do poorly in the South just because he was tone-deaf to the concerns of African American women over the age of 40. Secretary Clinton had probably met and shook the hand of every single influential minister in the South by the end of 2015, and had secured private commitments of support from all of them. Similarly, Bernie was beloved by the Progressive activists that really move left of center politics in New Hampshire. The political director of the state AFL-CIO had booked him for their Labor-Day Breakfast keynote 4 years in a row, and then after leaving the AFL became the state political director for his campaign.

5) Start staffing up. Political campaigns are large endeavors. In a Democratic statewide campaign, you'll probably have a Field department of up to 70 organizers, 10 regional field directors them, 1-2 Deputy Field Directors, and a Field Director. A digital team of 2-5, a fundraising team, a communications team, a scheduling and advance team, a data team, a body man for your candidate, possibly a policy team, your campaign manager, and whatever hangers on you have in your kitchen cabinet.

A Presidential campaign is much bigger. During the primary, you're probably going to need field/communications/political staff in up to 15 states at once. While the coverage is understandably thinner and shorter term, you're also gonna need to duplicate your political and communications roles between state-level and national level staff. Your scheduling and advance team(s) are gonna be effing HUGE. While most of those people get hired after you announce, you at LEAST need two people in your inner circle developing the long term plan of your run, a comms person to write/get your inspired and influential op-eds placed in the press, a scheduling team to get you in front of crowds, and a political person to get you into those private, intimate conversations I mentioned earlier. These roles can combine, but they need to be filled.

6) By March of 2018 you should have a good notion of your target early states, and a strong notion of which regions of the country are likely to get you to the primary. Have a plan that gets you to 2300/1237 delegates.

Nov 7 2018 - Early 2019.

Great. The midterm elections are over and your party (won/lost). Those candidates you helped out were (winners/absolutely murdered). The grassroots activists you introduced yourself to are (fired up/dejected/drunk). You have a hangover from the victory party in (IA/NH/SC/NV).

Time to get serious.

This period is one of ramp-up. You need a STRONG take on how the election went, and you need to probably start debuting your message (ideally with a great slogan or two). It should be in the NYT op-ed page. All of your party's wonderful political staffers just became unemployed, and will be hungry for work. Now's a great time to hire a field director, start shopping for specialty (ie: comms, finance, digital) consulting firms that had a good year (but you locked down your strategic consultants back in like 2015 right? Right?), and start filling out your already extant comms team with some deputies and press flaks. You should already have a data team and some polls out in the field.

At this point you need a strategy of where and how you're going to run, you need a message, you need a platform, the skeletons of a staff, and a rollout plan for your announcement.

You should file an exploratory committee to start raising funds/generate buzz for you. No one should be surprised when you do.

Continued...

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Early 2019-Jan/Feb 2020. Announcement to Iowa.

It's a crisp day in (DC/your hometown). Your comms team has arrayed a fine assortment of DC reporters in front of you, your digital team stands at the ready to take a beautiful photograph of you speaking and paste it right into the fundraising email they're about to send out (you were urging people to subscribe to your updates whenever you went in front of a crowd, weren't you? You have reserved PoliticianXforAmerica. Com, RIGHT?!) Your spouse and your photogenic children are by your side. A key early endorser says some nice things about you, you step up to the mic, and (alongside some other eloquent nonsense) say the magic words.

"I am running for President."

After that, board a plain/train/bus/hop in the flatbed of a truck bound to mystic Iowa.

Here's what you're going to need to be doing in the next 11-7 months:

1) Fundraise, fundraise, fundraise. If you're Bernie, the magic of populism and the internet helped you out on this front. If you're not catching lightning in a bottle, you have to raise money the old fashioned way. Calls, calls, calls, calls. Your finance staff should be aiding you in this, scheduling and recruiting for events, and negotiating with bundlers and lobbyists, but the personal touch is the personal touch. You're going to have to claw your way to the nomination one $2700 check at a time.

2) Kiss a LOT of babies. When you're not fundraising or on a plane, you're in public. Speaking, speaking speaking, shaking endless hands. If you're spry, you should be doing at least 3-4 events a day in the early states.

3) Here's a thing you shouldn't be doing: sleeping. You're going to be pulling 12 hr days if you're taking it easy.

4) Remember those confidential conversations about support back in 2015-8? Double that. You need to be talking to people all over the country. First of all, you're going to need to call in those chits you collected over years previous, getting them to endorse publicly, and interface with your local staff, but you also need to be thinking about the long game. People who were noncommittal when you spoke to them earlier, people in state you'd neglected, people who have developed sudden problems with the campaign. This is QUADRUPLY important for Democrats, because remember: super delegates are about a 15% of the delegates. You, the candidate (with a little help from your inner circle) might be personally responsible for a California's worth of delegates.

5) Staff up, and manage your staff. You're lucky on this one. As the candidate, you only need to be a top-level, CEO type on this sort of stuff. Your trusty campaign manager has this one in hand. Your campaign manager however, is gonna go slowly crazy. As I mentioned above, a Presidential campaign probably needs about a thousand people during the primaries at its greatest extent. If you're so lucky as to NEED a campaign staff that large (note that your efforts can and probably WILL flounder at any of the above or below stages, so keep that uncertainty and dread in your lizard brain at all times) you're going to have to scour the country for qualified individuals and firms.

6) But what's this? Your chief pollster (an old-party establishment scumbag) hates your Campaign Manager? Your communications director hates both of them? Your data director is sleeping with the campaign manager? All of them disagree on pretty much every next move the campaign needs to make? That's right. From here to November, if you're lucky you need to be the person where the buck stops on all of the absolute soap-opera nonsense that occurs when your 10-20 top staffers are confined to the same crappy hotels/planes for two years on about four hours of sleep. Read this article and the accompanying emails for a taste of the chaos.

7) Press relations. You'd best be prepared to give facts and figures and positions (all in an appealing, forthright way) on the issues of the day and the issues of your campaign to the Press. And as if all of your charm isn't spent on donors and activists and delegates and that baby in the third row and the rest of the public, you need to be nice to the Press. And the Press are just the nastiest, silliest, stupidest bunch of people (at least in aggregate) you'll interact with. They think they know how politics works (they don't), they think they know what important issues are (they don't) and they think they know how to conceive of the American public (they don't). Mostly, they graduated from their elite university/liberal arts college, got an internship with a national outlet, and managed to start covering the issues without having ever experienced everyday American life. And you've got to be nice to them and hand-hold them through American political dynamics and issues so that they'll write nice things about you.

8 ) Debate prep. Okay, so it's summer, the primary is you and 1-15 of your best friends, and it's time to shine before the TV viewing public (hopefully your party's national committee has scheduled enough debates if you're weren't coronated party favorite back in 2016 like HRC was in 2012). You've got to A) figure out a way to present your message B ) destroy everyone else's and C) look good while doing both. You've got to squeeze in these hours of preparation (and again, it's with the media, so you need arbitrary numbers packed in your head to make sure they don't label you a moron) alongside everything else, as your charter plane glides through the darkness of the great American expanse.

Hopefully your campaign isn't over after washing, rinsing, and repeating all of this nonsense. Donors still like you, polls show you competitive, your hundreds of staffers on the ground are mobilizing grassroots energy to knock on doors on your behalf, because it's January 2020 and that means it's...

IOWA CAUCUS TIME.
The Primaries (Jan-June 2020).

So now that we've spent 1979 words of this timeline on How To Run For President, it's actually time for a gosh-darned-average-American to cast a vote.
At this point, you’re spin cycling through the rapids of solicitation, persuasion, public speaking, and no sleep. You've left the comfortable familiarity of the Manchester NH Super 8 (it's close to the airport) for a variety of cheap hotels in Maine, Wisconsin, Alabama, California, New Jersey, Texas, Nebraska, and on and on and on. You're getting even less sleep now, because as the delegates pile up... you're coming out on top? You did great in (New Hampshire AND/OR Iowa AND/OR South Carolina AND/OR Nevada) and your #momentum has eliminated some lesser candidates. After your strong performance in (INSERT REGION HERE) on Super Tuesday (1,2,3, or 4) you're actually becoming a prohibitive frontrunner. And when you try to sleep, you can’t help but imagine what the cool wood of the Resolute Desk might feel like to write on. Your opponent has bigger bags under their eyes than even you do, and they’re beginning to snap at reporters in their exchanges (this gives you a small thrill of vicarious joy when you see it on the TV). This won’t be one of those horrifying, exhausting, six month long affairs. Thank goodness your advisers don’t need to start preparing for a floor fight. That would be an entire other nightmare I’d have to write 1000 words about.

The whisper of that beautiful word, “presumptive” fills the air.

You’ve been paying attention to the other party, right?

Because at this point, the real contest is taking shape. X Xerson, the charismatic, young governor of (Texas/California) is emerging in the opposite party. They represent a threat to all of your ideals and ambitions and the American people. While you need to focus on easing your primary opponents out of the contest, you now need to also look at how your opponent is running.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

The General: Jun-Nov 6 2020.

The general election campaign is similar to the primary contests from a candidate perspective, but bigger. While you don’t need to do as much persuasion of key grassroots figures (hopefully they’re all on-side) you do need to start negotiating the process of becoming your party’s standard bearer. Your primary opponents all come to you, one by one, and endorse you. Your principal opponent probably deserves some place in the cabinet despite what you heard them mutter about your mother during the third debate.

You also need to find a running mate. Understand that at this point each choice you make about where to spend resources, where to appear, and who to bring in to your inner circle and campaign for is going to offend somebody within the party. Someone that you need if you’re going to win. In addition to being diplomatic and nice to everyone you were before, you now need to become a sort of mediator of disputes and consoler-in-chief for a yuuge network of top party apparatchiks, grassroots activists, consultants, citizens, and courtiers for an organization that spans the entire country.

And you’ve got to nail your Convention speech.

Speaking of which, the Convention details are probably going to fall almost entirely on your senior staff, but dependent upon your management style you might want to get involved, too. Be extremely careful to note if any of your close family is allergic to latex, because convention organizers love balloons.
After your Convention (and it is your convention) goes off without a hitch, the next abnormal activity outside of the aforementioned 14 hr days of public appearances, soap opera management, press interviews, and fundraising fundraising fundraising is the debates. You should probably start prepping right after the convention. Again, hours and hours of memorizing policies, numbers, and how to look human in front of a camera after everything you’ve gone through.
Assuming you crush the debates, are charismatic in public, raise a ton of money, charm the press, manage the party bureaucracy and your campaign staff successfully, your campaign staff does an excellent job, and the American public is in love with you, the next part is easy. Get through October (and whatever unfortunate statement you made when you were a State Senator that surfaces), keep fundraising, keep speaking, and do remember to vote on Election Day. You’re gonna be President.

November 8th, 2020.

You wake up after a beautiful night’s sleep, and you still can’t believe that last night happened. You swept the swing states, you got a crushing 54% of the popular vote. In a few short months, you’re going to be the most powerful person on Earth.
Speaking of which, you started putting together a transition team in like, August, right? That’s gonna be important.


CONCLUSION:

Running for President is really, REALLY hard. It can take up to six years of effort. It requires at BAREST minimum two years without a good night’s sleep. It requires you and a dedicated team to be utterly determined, completely flawless, and extremely, extremely lucky. You need to be immaculately prepared just to run and win the office, much less be good at it.

Robert Reich has not prepared, and would not be prepared to run for President. Your small city mayor/city councilperson/Nina Turner/whoever cannot run for President. You need to have national connections, reputation, and a staff that’s able to get you places. And before you say “But Trump did it!!!!!” Trump arguably spent more time running for President than anyone has ever done. He’s been building a national reputation for 30 years. He started tweeting birther stuff in 2011. He was universally known, and had honed a keen skill at getting press and getting attention. He had TONS of staffers from his personal company helping him get press and attention before he ran for President.
Bernie had a strong reputation with the Progressive community, and had a Senate staff and indeed a larger coterie of advisers planning his run as early as 2014. Even though he skipped a few of these steps (and lost) he was just as beholden to many of them.

The notion that anyone who is likable or has a good policy platform can run for President is just dead wrong.

[mencken]

But Trump?

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

But Trump?

And before you say “But Trump did it!!!!!” Trump arguably spent more time running for President than anyone has ever done. He’s been building a national reputation for 30 years. He started tweeting birther stuff in 2011. He was universally known, and had honed a keen skill at getting press and getting attention. He had TONS of staffers from his personal company helping him get press and attention before he ran for President.

[BuckeyeNut]

So what I'm hearing is "PG for Pres. 2020."

[Mister Mets]

But Trump?

And before you say “But Trump did it!!!!!” Trump arguably spent more time running for President than anyone has ever done. He’s been building a national reputation for 30 years. He started tweeting birther stuff in 2011. He was universally known, and had honed a keen skill at getting press and getting attention. He had TONS of staffers from his personal company helping him get press and attention before he ran for President.

Adding to this, Trump did a lot of media to build his reputation. For example, he was a talking head on a history channel program about the development of the US (America: The Story of Us in 2010.) He'd often go on less savory programs that political elites don't follow, and cultivate relationships with the likes of the publisher of the National Enquirer.

It also helped him that the Republican party has a greater suspicion of longtime elected officials, and greater respect for political outsiders than Democrats do.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

So what I'm hearing is "PG for Pres. 2020."

Yes, that's exactly what you're hearing.

[BuckeyeNut]

So what I'm hearing is "PG for Pres. 2020."

Yes, that's exactly what you're hearing.

Okay, good.

[Former President tack50]

To be fair, there's also another, probably easier way to be President. Become Vice President, then if the president dies/resigns/gets impeached/whatever you are the new president.

So any small town mayor who gets picked as VP can technically become president

[publicunofficial]

Bumping this when Bob Filner takes the oath of office in 2021

[BuckeyeNut]

Bumping this when Bob Filner takes the oath of office in 2021

You're obviously joking, but 1: Filner served in the House before serving as Mayor, and 2: San Diego is not a "small city."

[Young Conservative]

Well, my mayor is terribly unpopular in a city that deeply supports his political party, so that's why he won't be President.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Fantastic posts. Thanks.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Bumping this when Bob Filner takes the oath of office in 2021

I was going to say something about San Diego not being a small city (2nd biggest in CA, 8th in US). Then I realized that Filner wasn't the incumbent and had resigned due to sexual harassment allegations.

[Mister Mets]

To be fair, there's also another, probably easier way to be President. Become Vice President, then if the president dies/resigns/gets impeached/whatever you are the new president.

So any small town mayor who gets picked as VP can technically become president

Obviously, everyone's first choice for Veep is a small city mayor.