Inital Gubernatorial Crystal Ball Ratings

[Gass3268]

Source

[MAINEiac4434]

Seems a bit bearish on Virginia, New Jersey and Illinois in a Trump midterm...other than that, no real arguments.

[Figueira]

Colorado, Kansas, Georgia, Virginia, Ohio, and New Hampshire seem too R-friendly, while Pennsylvania and Rhode Island seem too D-friendly. Other than that, seems reasonable, although I wouldn't list so many R states as Safe.

[The Other Castro]

Changes:

NH: Lean R --> Tossup
VT: Likely R --> Lean R
GA: Likely R --> Lean R
CO: Tossup --> Lean D
OR: Lean D --> Safe D
VA: Tossup --> Likely D
CT: Tossup --> Lean D
IL: Tossup --> Lean D
MN: Tossup --> Lean D
ME: Tossup --> Lean D

[TheSaint250]

Changes I Would Make:

AZ: Likely R --> Safe R
CO: Tossup --> Lean D
GA: Likely R --> Safe R
IA: Lean R --> Likely R
KS: Lean R --> Likely R
MA: Lean R --> Likely R
MD: Lean R--> Likely R
MN: Tossup --> Lean D
NM: Lean D --> Tossup
OR: Likely D --> Safe D
TN: Likely R --> Safe R
WI: Lean R --> Likely R

[KingSweden]

A tick too bearish on D chances, imo, but reasonable

[Tartarus Sauce]

A tick too bearish on D chances, imo, but reasonable

This^

It is only his initial ratings though, we'll have a better picture of how these races will shape up once the Democratic candidates are picked and consolidated.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

As far as initial ratings go, this seems reasonable.

Only changes I'd make:
CO: Tossup --> Lean D
CT: Tossup --> Lean D
IA: Lean R --> Likely R
MA: Lean R --> Likely R
MN: Tossup --> Lean D
RI: Lean D --> Likely D
VA: Tossup --> Lean D

[Rjjr77]

Actually dead on with my ratings.

[coloradocowboi]

As far as initial ratings go, this seems reasonable.

Only changes I'd make:
CO: Tossup --> Lean D
CT: Tossup --> Lean D
IA: Lean R --> Likely R
MA: Lean R --> Likely R
MN: Tossup --> Lean D
RI: Lean D --> Likely D
VA: Tossup --> Lean D

This is perfect.

I would say that Sabato is probably being very cautious here though, which is why CO and VA are tossups. Polis winning the nomination in CO or a damaging primary in either state could give Republicans a boost.

Similarly, a truly awful national climate for Republicans could make MA and IA competitive. But we don't know what the Trump effect is going to be yet (which is also why he leans conservative in his appraisal of the CT and RI races).

The only change of yours I don't agree with, however, is MN. I think it's going to be the only really competitive seat held by Democrats in 2018, and I'd even say Tilts R unless Trump inspires higher than average D turnout.