July 1995 - Michael Portillo, the Tory Icarus
While MP's did not underestimate Michael Heseltine, most saw Michael Portillo as the clear frontrunner to become the next Prime Minister. That his bid for leadership crashed and left him out of the third and final ballot is the history in one of the most hectic weeks in the history of the Conservative Party. Portillo began the campaign facing an open flank in John Redwood, who had refused to stand down as he was deeply disappointed in Portillo's inability to stand against Major. Furthermore, the news that Portillo had installed new telephone lines and prepared his campaign as he professed loyalty to Major opened up criticism over his loyalty.
But what unraveled his campaign was the release of a story (leaked, some suspect, by some devious MP) which outed Portillo as having had homosexual experiences as a young man. Hurt by the exposure Portillo defended himself well in an interview and recieved support from all sides of the party, but it was clear from the crude jibes of men like Norman Tebbit (who used terms as crude as "sexual deviances") that many social conservatives were now turned off by Portillo. In contrast, Redwood had more time to improve his own leadership manifesto and capitalize on the moment, losing MP's to Portillo but standing strong as a contender for the last ballot.
With Gillian Shephard's campaign never truly taking off (despite a minor band of Major loyalists in the cabinet trying to campaign for her), it was left to Michael Heseltine to become the frontrunner. Dozens of MP's desperate to save their seats turned to Heseltine, who appeared by far the most electable candidate and, it was believed, could prove a more dynamic PM than Major. Heseltine played it safe, staying away from the Portillo-Redwood dispute and softening some of his views on Europe to build a large coalition. In the end, the results of the second ballot were:
Second Ballot:
Michael Heseltine: 157
John Redwood: 82
Michael Portillo: 71
Gillian Shephard: 20
Westminster was stunned at the fall of Portillo, seeing John Redwood not only crown himself at the assassin of John Major, but the new prince of the Tory right. Despite Heseltine being only 9 MPs short Redwood is entitled to a final ballot, and he's entered the ring trying to appeal as many Portillo supporters as possible. With Gillian Shephard reclutantly endorsing Heseltine to stop Redwood, many believe the election will be down to whether Portillo gives Redwood his full support or not.
Two days for this one, winner becomes Prime Minister.