AL US Senate 2017: Who will Bentley appoint?

[Greedo punched first]

Who gets appointed?

[Maxwell]

Considering how corrupt Alabama governance is ATM, I almost expect it to be Luther Strange, the current state AG who is investigating Bentley.

Bradley Byrne used to be a kind of sane, okay politician, which means if he's appointed he'd almost certainly face a primary challenger. Byrne is the person I'd be least upset with.

Being realistic for a non-Strange candidate? probably a placeholder.

[Suburbia]

Martha Roby. Roy Moore is probably too conservative for Alabama's standards.

[Greedo punched first]

Luther Strange. Strange filed to run in 2018. Why not make Strange the incumbent already by appointing him?

[Heisenberg]

Martha Roby. Roy Moore is probably too conservative for Alabama's standards.

Roby would have a tough time in the primary after renouncing Trump. She is not that well liked anymore. Before she denounced Trump many saw her as the obvious choice. Aderholt is a likely possibility, but he is pretty well positioned in the House, is near the top of the Appropriations Committee and already chairs a good subcommittee. The rest of the House delegation is already in their 60's, and Alabama, like the rest of the Deep South, seems to like gaining seniority over time, so they wouldn't get as much mileage. I would say Luther Strange (who has already filed for 2018) if I had to make a guess, but there is an off-chance of a placeholder being appointed, or maybe someone from the state legislature. And Moore is way too controversial to get the appointment, plus he's up in age and reportedly far more interested in the governorship.

If Pryor isn't named to SCOTUS, he could be also be a dark horse, but probably not.

[Maxwell]

Luther Strange. Strange filed to run in 2018. Why not make Strange the incumbent already by appointing him?

Because he's currently investigating the Governor Bentley, who would make the appointment, and would be a huge conflict of interest if Strange sought the appointment because then Governor Bentley, who again, is being investigated by Strange, would get to pick Strange's replacement for AG. It's pretty terrible ethics, even for Alabama politics.

[Young Conservative]

Representative Mo Brooks.

[Pandaguineapig]

I wouldn't count out Roby or a very young state rep, Alabama relies on congressional seniority and Bentley likely wants someone who could be a senator for decades

[Greedo punched first]

Luther Strange will run next year.

[Cynthia]

Luther Strange is the most likely IMO.
Followed by Roby, Byrne, and MAYBE Boozer.
Roby would be my happiest choice out of these all.

[SCNCmod]

Do any Dems have an outside shot in2018? (are there any really popular Dem Politicians in AL)?

[Greedo punched first]

Do any Dems have an outside shot in2018? (are there any really popular Dem Politicians in AL)?

Richard Lindsey?

[SATW]

I'd be super happy with either Roby, Byrne or Aderholt. I think Aderholt is most likely from my list.

[Vosem]

Strange seems like the obvious frontrunner at this point. It'll be either him or a placeholder; seems very unlikely that Bentley would appoint a different politician.

[Türkisblau]

pullin' for Boozer rn

[Rjjr77]

I expect a no name placeholder.

[Maxwell]

here's hoping its Bentley's mistress.

[Greedo punched first]

Martha Roby. Roy Moore is probably too conservative for Alabama's standards.

Roby would have a tough time in the primary after renouncing Trump. She is not that well liked anymore. Before she denounced Trump many saw her as the obvious choice. Aderholt is a likely possibility, but he is pretty well positioned in the House, is near the top of the Appropriations Committee and already chairs a good subcommittee. The rest of the House delegation is already in their 60's, and Alabama, like the rest of the Deep South, seems to like gaining seniority over time, so they wouldn't get as much mileage. I would say Luther Strange (who has already filed for 2018) if I had to make a guess, but there is an off-chance of a placeholder being appointed, or maybe someone from the state legislature. And Moore is way too controversial to get the appointment, plus he's up in age and reportedly far more interested in the governorship.

If Pryor isn't named to SCOTUS, he could be also be a dark horse, but probably not.

Pryor's chances of joining the Supreme Court are declining. Would he accept a Senate seat?
http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/01/bill_pryors_scotus_chances_sli.html

[KingSweden]

Martha Roby. Roy Moore is probably too conservative for Alabama's standards.

Roby would have a tough time in the primary after renouncing Trump. She is not that well liked anymore. Before she denounced Trump many saw her as the obvious choice. Aderholt is a likely possibility, but he is pretty well positioned in the House, is near the top of the Appropriations Committee and already chairs a good subcommittee. The rest of the House delegation is already in their 60's, and Alabama, like the rest of the Deep South, seems to like gaining seniority over time, so they wouldn't get as much mileage. I would say Luther Strange (who has already filed for 2018) if I had to make a guess, but there is an off-chance of a placeholder being appointed, or maybe someone from the state legislature. And Moore is way too controversial to get the appointment, plus he's up in age and reportedly far more interested in the governorship.

If Pryor isn't named to SCOTUS, he could be also be a dark horse, but probably not.

Pryor's chances of joining the Supreme Court are declining. Would he accept a Senate seat?
http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/01/bill_pryors_scotus_chances_sli.html

I'm sure he would, though he could still get a future appointment in case of vacancy

[Heisenberg]

Martha Roby. Roy Moore is probably too conservative for Alabama's standards.

Roby would have a tough time in the primary after renouncing Trump. She is not that well liked anymore. Before she denounced Trump many saw her as the obvious choice. Aderholt is a likely possibility, but he is pretty well positioned in the House, is near the top of the Appropriations Committee and already chairs a good subcommittee. The rest of the House delegation is already in their 60's, and Alabama, like the rest of the Deep South, seems to like gaining seniority over time, so they wouldn't get as much mileage. I would say Luther Strange (who has already filed for 2018) if I had to make a guess, but there is an off-chance of a placeholder being appointed, or maybe someone from the state legislature. And Moore is way too controversial to get the appointment, plus he's up in age and reportedly far more interested in the governorship.

If Pryor isn't named to SCOTUS, he could be also be a dark horse, but probably not.

Pryor's chances of joining the Supreme Court are declining. Would he accept a Senate seat?
http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/01/bill_pryors_scotus_chances_sli.html

I'm sure he would, though he could still get a future appointment in case of vacancy

I can't see Pryor replacing Kennedy, and especially not Ginsburg or Breyer. Also, Thomas's seat is the de facto Black seat, so if he retires, as he's hinted (and Trump's victory makes it far more likely), Trump will come under a lot of fire if a non-Black (especially a White) judge gets the seat (unless he appoints an African-American to another seat before). If Pryor gets this seat, it's the Scalia seat, and wouldn't change the balance overall. To fill the Kennedy seat, and especially the Ginsburg or Breyer seats, Trump would likely go with a female (Sykes), minority (Thapar), or someone more elderly (Canady), to make liberals less inclined to block the nominee. Names in parentheses are just examples I threw around. Basically, if Pryor doesn't get this seat (unlikely now), I think his only chance is if Alito suddenly retires.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Aderholt

[publicunofficial]

Martha Roby. Roy Moore is probably too conservative for Alabama's standards.

Roby would have a tough time in the primary after renouncing Trump. She is not that well liked anymore. Before she denounced Trump many saw her as the obvious choice. Aderholt is a likely possibility, but he is pretty well positioned in the House, is near the top of the Appropriations Committee and already chairs a good subcommittee. The rest of the House delegation is already in their 60's, and Alabama, like the rest of the Deep South, seems to like gaining seniority over time, so they wouldn't get as much mileage. I would say Luther Strange (who has already filed for 2018) if I had to make a guess, but there is an off-chance of a placeholder being appointed, or maybe someone from the state legislature. And Moore is way too controversial to get the appointment, plus he's up in age and reportedly far more interested in the governorship.

If Pryor isn't named to SCOTUS, he could be also be a dark horse, but probably not.

Pryor's chances of joining the Supreme Court are declining. Would he accept a Senate seat?
http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/01/bill_pryors_scotus_chances_sli.html

I'm sure he would, though he could still get a future appointment in case of vacancy

I can't see Pryor replacing Kennedy, and especially not Ginsburg or Breyer. Also, Thomas's seat is the de facto Black seat, so if he retires, as he's hinted (and Trump's victory makes it far more likely), Trump will come under a lot of fire if a non-Black (especially a White) judge gets the seat (unless he appoints an African-American to another seat before). If Pryor gets this seat, it's the Scalia seat, and wouldn't change the balance overall. To fill the Kennedy seat, and especially the Ginsburg or Breyer seats, Trump would likely go with a female (Sykes), minority (Thapar), or someone more elderly (Canady), to make liberals less inclined to block the nominee. Names in parentheses are just examples I threw around. Basically, if Pryor doesn't get this seat (unlikely now), I think his only chance is if Alito suddenly retires.

You know what, call me crazy but I don't think Trump will care about that.

[Kingpoleon]

I can't see Pryor replacing Kennedy, and especially not Ginsburg or Breyer. Also, Thomas's seat is the de facto Black seat, so if he retires, as he's hinted, Trump will come under a lot of fire if a non-Black judge gets the seat. If Pryor gets this seat, it's the Scalia seat, and wouldn't change the balance overall. To fill the Kennedy seat, and especially the Ginsburg or Breyer seats, Trump would likely go with a female (Sykes), minority (Thapar), or someone more elderly (Canady), to make liberals less inclined to block the nominee. Names in parentheses are just examples I threw around. Basically, if Pryor doesn't get this seat (unlikely now), I think his only chance is if Alito suddenly retires.

Clark Ervin, Paul Clinton Harris, Darryl Glenn, Erika Harold, Janice Rogers Brown, Michelle Bernard, or Curtis Hill are the main African Americans Trump might appoint.

[Greedo punched first]

I can't see Pryor replacing Kennedy, and especially not Ginsburg or Breyer. Also, Thomas's seat is the de facto Black seat, so if he retires, as he's hinted, Trump will come under a lot of fire if a non-Black judge gets the seat. If Pryor gets this seat, it's the Scalia seat, and wouldn't change the balance overall. To fill the Kennedy seat, and especially the Ginsburg or Breyer seats, Trump would likely go with a female (Sykes), minority (Thapar), or someone more elderly (Canady), to make liberals less inclined to block the nominee. Names in parentheses are just examples I threw around. Basically, if Pryor doesn't get this seat (unlikely now), I think his only chance is if Alito suddenly retires.

Clark Ervin, Paul Clinton Harris, Darryl Glenn, Erika Harold, Janice Rogers Brown, Michelle Bernard, or Curtis Hill are the main African Americans Trump might appoint.

If Thomas retires, Trump will likely pick Robert Young from Michigan.