What will it take for an incumbent to be unseated?

[BaldEagle1991]

First of all the last three presidents were two term presidents. They were moderately popular in their first terms and their opposition was considered weak or just couldn't have what it took to unseat the power of the incumbency.

The last time an incumbent was unseated was 1992, but if you look at it, there was a strong third party candidate that helped split the vote back then.

So what will it take this time do you think in our current environment for an incumbent president to be unseated? Especially in 2020.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The economy reaming the same or worse than now, Russia invading a eastern European country, and Trump just being his douchey self. So not a lot

[BaldEagle1991]

and Trump just being his douchey self.

This is what I'm hoping for.

[Del Tachi]

Incumbents losing is a rarity.  Before 1992 and 1980, you have to go back to 1932 when Hoover lost to FDR.  If you ignore year's with strong third party performances, then the elections in which incumbents lost were 1800, 1828, 1840, 1888, 1932 and 1980.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

1.  A massive economic downturn or upheaval, with . . .

2.  A perception that the incumbent President is apathetic to the situation.

[Figueira]

Incumbents losing is a rarity.  Before 1992 and 1980, you have to go back to 1932 when Hoover lost to FDR.  If you ignore year's with strong third party performances, then the elections in which incumbents lost were 1800, 1828, 1840, 1888, 1932 and 1980.

No reason to ignore years with strong third parties. Clinton would have won with or without Perot.

Anyway, Trump is off to a bad start so far, so he basically has to continue on the path he's currently on. Also Democrats should ideally nominate someone competent but it's possible that they'll win even without one (like Republicans in 2016).

[Mr. Smith]

Incumbents losing is a rarity.  Before 1992 and 1980, you have to go back to 1932 when Hoover lost to FDR.  If you ignore year's with strong third party performances, then the elections in which incumbents lost were 1800, 1828, 1840, 1888, 1932 and 1980.

Even 1980 is dubious one thanks to John Anderson sucking away lots of votes in the Northeast.

[SWE]

Incumbents losing is a rarity.  Before 1992 and 1980, you have to go back to 1932

Alternatively, you can go back to the last election that happened before 1980.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If the GOP has a bad midterm and the Dems are successful in blocking most of his agenda, 2020 is set up pretty well for the Senate lineup for MI, WI and PA to turn back blue again due to Gary Peters, Jeanne Shaheen and Mark Warner coatails and running against and Ernst and Gardner and Tillis being vulnerable.

The Senate is doable again unlike the House Gerrymandering

[Person Man]

If we have a major crisis and he fails to do anthing about it or at least doesn't do enough to generate a benefit of the doubt. Both 43 and 44 did enough about their respective crises to win by about as much as Trump did in EVs. 42 won big because nothing really haapened and 40 won by a lot because he "solved"a problem that happened in watch. 39 and 41 lost because things happened late enough on their watch that they didn't have time to do anything about them. For Trump, if the economy melts down this or next year, he is screwed in the House, but will probably be OK.

[Person Man]

If the GOP has a bad midterm and the Dems are successful in blocking most of his agenda, 2020 is set up pretty well for the Senate lineup for MI, WI and PA to turn back blue again due to Gary Peters, Jeanne Shaheen and Mark Warner coatails and running against and Ernst and Gardner and Tillis being vulnerable.

The Senate is doable again unlike the House Gerrymandering

You think Republicans can hold the house against a 7 point wave?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Against Tulsi Gabbard, she would win the House and the Senate, against anyone else, it will be another GOP nightmare

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Incumbents losing is a rarity.  Before 1992 and 1980, you have to go back to 1932 when Hoover lost to FDR.  If you ignore year's with strong third party performances, then the elections in which incumbents lost were 1800, 1828, 1840, 1888, 1932 and 1980.

Even 1980 is dubious one thanks to John Anderson sucking away lots of votes in the Northeast.

Whatever, 1980 and 1992 were going to be losses with or without those 3rd parties.

[Person Man]

Incumbents losing is a rarity.  Before 1992 and 1980, you have to go back to 1932 when Hoover lost to FDR.  If you ignore year's with strong third party performances, then the elections in which incumbents lost were 1800, 1828, 1840, 1888, 1932 and 1980.

Even 1980 is dubious one thanks to John Anderson sucking away lots of votes in the Northeast.

Whatever, 1980 and 1992 were going to be losses with or without those 3rd parties.

That's probably the point....though I imagine 3rd party performance is an effect than a cause. It kind of was there in 2000 and 2016 but not in 2008.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Against Tulsi Gabbard, she would win the House and the Senate, against anyone else, it will be another GOP nightmare

Lol

[jaichind]

A significant primary challenge like 1976 1980 and 1992.

[Person Man]

For Trump to be unseated, a lot has to happen. His base is the only thing that ensures him another term in my view. The Trump coalition carried him to victory and it can be his downfall. The economy has to be in terrible shape for his base to stop supporting him. Once his base starts to falter, the Republicans that held their nose and voted for him will go as well. Trump's base wants results and if he can't deliver he WILL be doomed.

For him, it would be better for him if the bubble pops this year or next. Perpetual growth to 2020 just isn't in the cards. If there's a good recovery from an early recession, he can win by a lot.

[Medal506]

So far with everything Trump has done just within his first 5 days. If he keeps it up he's guranteed re election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So far with everything Trump has done just within his first 5 days. If he keeps it up he's guranteed re election

Since Trump has won, every poll come out like VA Gov and FL Gov race have GOP trailing in each of those races.

[BaldEagle1991]

So far with everything Trump has done just within his first 5 days. If he keeps it up he's guranteed re election

Since Trump has won, every poll come out like VA Gov and FL Gov race have GOP trailing in each of those races.

May I remind you that VA and NJ got Republican governors right after Obama in 2009. Yet he got re-elected. That's a poor indicator.