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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
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Sestak
jk2020
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« on: May 28, 2018, 12:34:44 AM »

BREAKING: Government Negotiations Fail, Snap Elections Imminent

May 25, 2018

Four days after the seating of the new Pennsylvania congressional delegation led to the failure of a confidence motion in President Donald Trump's government, negotiations between the governing parties and the Center Party led by Susan Collins has broken down. The parties ave been thought to be at an impasse for the last two days, with Center refusing to back any government led by Trump's America First Party and the President refusing to support any non-AF-led government. In a Friday afternoon tweet, Collins stated "The President's childish refusal to negotiate and compromise has completely stalled any hope of progress or moderation in the confidence talks. Minutes ago I informed Chief Secretary Pelosi that I no longer believe a deal can be reached." Barely an hour later, Pelosi stated on the Senate floor that she did not believe a viable government could be formed. Barring a sharp turnaround in the negotiations, the government will be dissolved and snap elections called when the Senate reconvenes on Tuesday. The news is a resounding victory for the center-left parties, who have made ousting the President their top priority since his election in November 2017.

The snap election will be the first in nearly 38 years; each state (except Pennsylvania, Nevada, South Carolina, and Tennessee, which held Congressional elections within the last two months) will be required to hold new elections for Congress within 6 months of the elections being called. Incidentally, the weekend delay will allow the state of California to synchronize with their statewide election in late November.



Snap Elections Called, Haley to Lead Interim Government

May 29, 2018

The Senate officially called for snap elections to begin on Monday after the failure of government talks last week. The election period will last until November 29. Senate President Pro Tempore Chuck Grassley has recalled UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (CDP-SC) and named her Acting President, and named Joe Manchin of the Liberal Conservative Party as Vice President, a move thought to have been made in exchange for the LCP support of the provisional government.

The House quickly voted to retain most of Trump's cabinet in the interim, but did vote to expel Attorney General Jeff Sessions, Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos, and Director of National Intelligence Devin Nunes. Grassley swiftly named Rep. Josh Hawley (AMR-MO) as Attorney General, Rep. Mark Warner (LCP-VA) as Director of National Intelligence, and Sen. Lamar Alexander (CDP-TN) to serve in his former position as Secretary of Education and as the constitutionally mandated Cabinet Senator. Alexander and Warner's nominations went unchallenged, while a challenge to Hawley's nomination fell several dozen votes short.


Schedule for Snap elections
Primaries in Italics
General Elections in bold
* - already scheduled prior to calling of snap election
** - primaries already held

June 5
Iowa*
Montana*
New Mexico*
South Dakota*


June 12
Maine*
New Hampshire*
North Dakota*
Vermont*



June 19
Connecticut
Illinois**


June 26
Arkansas
Colorado
Delaware
Oklahoma*
Rhode Island


July 3
Idaho
Indiana
Kentucky
West Virginia


July 10
New Mexico
Hawaii*
Maryland
North Carolina
Virginia


July 17
Alabama
Florida*
Mississippi
Louisiana
Texas


July 24
California
Georgia
Massachusetts*
Oregon


July 31
Delaware
Rhode Island

Alaska
New York
New Jersey


August 7
Arkansas
Indiana
Kentucky

Kansas*
Michigan*
Missouri*


August 14
New Hampshire*
Vermont*

Minnesota*
Wisconsin*


August 21
Colorado
Hawaii
Idaho

Utah
Washington
Wyoming*


August 28
Maryland
North Carolina
Virginia
West Virginia

Arizona

September 18
Alaska

September 25
Alabama
Florida*
Louisiana
Mississippi
Texas


October 2
Massachusetts
Oregon


October 9
New Jersey
Georgia


October 16
Washington

October 25
New York


November 6
Arizona
Iowa*
Kansas*
Maine*
Michigan*
Minnesota*
Missouri*
Montana*
Nebraska**
North Dakota*
Oklahoma*
Ohio**
South Dakota*
Utah
Wisconsin*
Wyoming*


November 27
California
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2018, 12:36:00 AM »

mega oof
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2018, 02:49:40 PM »

Results of the US House Elections in Pennsylvania, 2018

only Final Round results shown

District 1
Scott Wallace (Social Democratic) - 53.2%
Brian Fitzpatrick (American) (i) - 46.8%

District 2
Brendan Boyle (Democratic) (i) - 79.7%
David Torres (American) - 12.2%
John Blaine (America First) - 8.1%

District 3
Dwight Evans (Democratic) (i) - 68.9%
Kevin Johnson (Social Democratic) - 16.4%
Bryan Leib (American) - 14.7%

District 4
Madeleine Dean (Social Democratic) - 57.8%
Dan David (American) - 42.2%

District 5
Joe Sestak (Social Democratic) (i) - 62.7%
Pearl Kim (American) (i) - 37.3%

District 6
Chrissy Houlahan (Social Democratic) - 55.5%
Greg McCauley (American) - 44.4%

District 7
Susan Wild (Social Democratic) - 52.4%
Pat Toomey (American) (i) - 47.6%

District 8
Bob Casey Jr. (Workers') (i) - 61.2%
John Chrin (American) - 21.8%
Joe Peters (America First) - 16.9%

District 9
Lou Barletta (America First) (i) - 53.6%
Dennis Wolff (Democratic) - 46.4%

District 10
George Scott (Social Democratic) - 50.3%
Scott Perry (American) (i) - 49.7%

District 11
Lloyd Smucker (America First) (i) - 54.9%
Jess King (Social Democratic) (i) - 45.1%

District 12
Doug McLinko (American) - 52.2%
Tom Marino (America First) (i) - 47.8%

District 13
John Joyce (American) - 56.4%
John Eichelberger (America First) - 43.5%

District 14
Guy Reschenthaler (American) - 63.7%
Rick Saccone (America First) - 36.3%

District 15
Glenn Thompson (American) (i) - 54.7%
Susan Boser (Workers') - 34.0%
Wade Jodun (Democratic) - 11.3

District 16
Mike Kelly (America First) (i) - 52.1%
Ronald DiNicola (Democratic) - 47.9%

District 17
Conor Lamb (Workers') (i) - 54.1%
Keith Rothfus (American) (i) - 45.9%

District 18
John Fetterman (Workers') - 50.1%
Michael Doyle (Democratic) (i) - 49.9%


Center-Left - 11 (+4) (+5 from previous election)
Social Democratic 6 (+5)
Workers' 3 (+1) (+2 from previous election)
Democratic 2 (-2)


Center-Right - 7 (-4) (-5 from previous election)
American 4 (-3)
America First 3 (-1) (-2 from previous election)

Delegation President before
Pat Toomey (American)

Delegation President after
Joe Sestak (Social Democratic)
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GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB
weatherboy1102
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« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2018, 05:26:07 PM »

Party platforms?
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2018, 05:38:31 PM »


I'll get to those soon (for the major ones at least).
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2018, 06:13:17 PM »

The Working Agreement

The Working Agreement is the arrangement between the three major American center-right parties formed after the split of the Republican Party in 1986. Should the three parties together constitute a majority, then a government between the three shall be formed with the leader of the largest party as President and the other two leaders as Vice President and Chief of the Cabinet.


Christian Democratic Party (CDP)

Leader: Tom Cotton (AR)

The Southern wing of the Working Agreement. Espouses general conservative views. Compared to the other RWA parties, more focused on "Christian" issues and is the most openly opposed to abortion, birth control access, and LGBQ+ rights. Openly supports "protecting our Southern heritage" and supports keeping Confederate statues. Of the three RWA-led governments, two have been led by the CDP: The Gingrich government (1994-1996) and the Bush government (2000-2008). Chief of the Cabinet Tom Cotton took power after Marco Rubio's resignation following the 2016 elections, and was instrumental in forming the coalition between the Working Agreement and America First.


American Party (AMR)

Leader: Paul Ryan (WI)

The midwestern wing of the Working Agreement. Initially considered the most socially liberal of the three, it has steadily drifted to the right after the Center Party split away in 1999, and in the eyes of many are now indistiguishable from the CDP. The party led the first RWA coalition in the Kemp government (1986-1991), but has not led since then.

Republican Party (GOP/REP)

Leader: Pat Roberts (KS)

The western wing of the Working Agreement (as well as its predecessor). Have not led a government since the party split after Ronald Reagan's 1986 retirement. Considered the most socially moderate of the Working Agreement, with several openly pro-choice or pro-LGBT rights members of Congress. The party is split on issues such as immigration but maintains a strong pro-gun and anti-federal overreach stance.
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2018, 11:46:09 PM »

This is looking interesting.
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #7 on: May 31, 2018, 01:39:51 PM »

Other set delegations

Nevada

District 1: Dina Titus (Western Alliance)

District 2: Dean Heller (Republican)

District 3: Jacky Rosen (Moderate)

District 4: Catherine Cortez Masto (Western Alliance)

Delegation President: Dina Titus

South Carolina

District 1: Tim Scott (Christian Democratic)

District 2: Nikki Haley (Christian Democratic)

District 3: Kevin Bryant (America First)

District 4: Jim DeMint (America First)

District 5: Mick Mulvaney (America First)

District 6: Jim Clyburn (Civil Rights)

District 7: Tom Rice (Christian Democratic)

Delegation Presdent: Tim Scott

Tennessee

District 1: Phil Roe (Christian Democratic)

District 2: Jimmy Duncan (Christian Democratic)

District 3: Bob Corker (Christian Democratic)

District 4: Scott DesJarlais (America First)

District 5: Phil Bredesen (Liberal Conservative)

District 6: Diane Black (America First)

District 7: Marsha Blackburn (America First)

District 8: David Kustoff (America First)

District 9: Steve Cohen (Civil Rights)

Delegation President: Marsha Blackburn
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #8 on: June 09, 2018, 04:04:31 PM »

Overview for June 5 primary states

Iowa

District 1
Representative: Rod Blum (America First)
Rating: Lean DFL

District 2
Representative: Dave Loebsack (DFL)
Rating: Safe DFL

District 3
Representative: Joni Ernst (American)
Rating: Tossup

District 4
Representative: Steve King (America First)
Rating: Likely AFP

Incoming Delegation President: Rod Blum

Montana

At-Large
Representative: Ryan Zinke (America First)
Rating: Tossup

New Mexico

District 1
Representative: Michelle Lujan Grisham (Western Alliance)
Rating: Safe WAP

District 2
Representative: Steve Pearce (Republican)
Rating: Tossup

District 3
Representative: Tom Udall (Western Alliance)
Rating: Safe WAP

South Dakota

At Large
Representative: John Thune (Republican)
Rating Safe GOP
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