2012 Maine Initiative on Same Sex Marriage

[GMantis]

Rather stark regional divide, with all but one coastal counties voting yes, and all inland ones voting no. Also, the highest percentage of "no" voters was not in the usual suspect Piscataquis, but in Aroostook, with 66.86%.

[homelycooking]

That puny county map just will not do.

[GMantis]

What are the gray sections? No one lives there?

[homelycooking]

What are the gray sections? No one lives there?

Yes, those are unorganized tracts and townships with no (or negligible) population.

[GMantis]

Also, what is the color scale of the map? Because there seem to be a lot of >30% and >40% towns, which shouldn't really happen with a map of a referendum.

[GMantis]

And here's a county map of the 2009 referendum:



And Aroostook has again the strongest vote against same sex marriage.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Are there a lot of working-class Quebecois who voted Obama/No?

[GMantis]

Are there a lot of working-class Quebecois who voted Obama/No?

That would certainly explain Aroostook (and for that matter Androscoggin, which has the highest proportion of persons with French Canadian ancestry in Maine).

[old timey villain]

What are the gray sections? No one lives there?

Yes, those are unorganized tracts and townships with no (or negligible) population.

You know, I've been looking at these Maine maps on the site for years now and I always assumed the map maker just got tired and didn't feel like filling in the gray areas. I can't believe so much of Maine is virtually unpopulated!

[homelycooking]

Also, what is the color scale of the map? Because there seem to be a lot of >30% and >40% towns, which shouldn't really happen with a map of a referendum.

2.5% scale. Towns with a margin of less than 5% are colored in the 20-25% shade.

[GMantis]

Also, what is the color scale of the map? Because there seem to be a lot of >30% and >40% towns, which shouldn't really happen with a map of a referendum.

2.5% scale. Towns with a margin of less than 5% are colored in the 20-25% shade.

That can't be so, because then all towns with a margin over 20% would be colored with the >90% color and this is certainly not the case.

[MaxQue]

Are there a lot of working-class Quebecois who voted Obama/No?

That would certainly explain Aroostook (and for that matter Androscoggin, which has the highest proportion of persons with French Canadian ancestry in Maine).

Well, in Northern Maine, people may be of French Canadian ancestry, but not really Quebecois, considering than the bulk of immigration from Quebec to New England happened in late 1800's.

[homelycooking]

Also, what is the color scale of the map? Because there seem to be a lot of >30% and >40% towns, which shouldn't really happen with a map of a referendum.

2.5% scale. Towns with a margin of less than 5% are colored in the 20-25% shade.

That can't be so, because then all towns with a margin over 20% would be colored with the >90% color and this is certainly not the case.

I don't understand what you mean. Here is the color scale I used, maybe it will clear this up:

20% shade: 0-5% margin (50-52.5% of the referendum vote)
25% shade: 5-10% margin (52.5-55% of the referendum vote)
30% shade: 10-15% margin (55-57.5% of the referendum vote)
35% shade: 15-20% margin (57.5-60% of the referendum vote)
40% shade: 20-25% margin (60-62.5% of the referendum vote)
45% shade: 25-30% margin (62.5-65% of the referendum vote)
50% shade: 30-35% margin (65-67.5% of the referendum vote)
55% shade: 35-40% margin (67.5-70% of the referendum vote)
60% shade: 40-45% margin (70-72.5% of the referendum vote)
65% shade: 45-50% margin (72.5-75% of the referendum vote)
70% shade: 50-55% margin (75-77.5% of the referendum vote)
75% shade: 55-60% margin (77.5-80% of the referendum vote)
80% shade: 60-65% margin (80-82.5% of the referendum vote)
85% shade: 65-100% margin (82.5-100% of the referendum vote)

[nclib]

Swing from 2009 to 2012:

York   6.55%
Aroostook   6.22%
Washington   6.00%
Androscoggin   5.82%
Somerset   5.77%
Franklin   5.75%
Penebscot   5.64%
Oxford   5.42%
Kennebec   5.33%
Waldo   5.18%
Sagadahoc   5.00%
Cumberland   4.82%
Knox   4.28%
Piscataquis   4.22%
Hancock   3.88%
Lincoln   3.79%

Obama % of 2-party vote - Gay%:

Aroostook   20.76%
Franklin   12.84%
Oxford   11.49%
Androscoggin   10.87%
Somerset   10.63%
Piscataquis   10.30%
Washington   9.50%
Kennebec   7.73%
Knox   6.42%
Penobscot   4.90%
Waldo   4.15%
Lincoln   4.12%
Sagadahoc   3.58%
Hancock   2.79%
York   1.73%
Cumberland   -1.21%

Surprised how consistent the first map is.

[politicallefty]

What's it look like by Congressional district? It looks like ME-01 might have been close to (if not more than) 60%. ME-02 looks to have had a pretty nasty result, almost certainly the most anti-gay marriage CD in New England.

It's also quite interesting to see every county swing towards marriage equality, which also goes to support the general theory of a 1-2% increase in support per year in that direction. Other than the odd Arizona situation, Maine's the only state where support has been tested on the ballot more than once.

[ottermax]

What's it look like by Congressional district? It looks like ME-01 might have been close to (if not more than) 60%. ME-02 looks to have had a pretty nasty result, almost certainly the most anti-gay marriage CD in New England.

It's also quite interesting to see every county swing towards marriage equality, which also goes to support the general theory of a 1-2% increase in support per year in that direction. Other than the odd Arizona situation, Maine's the only state where support has been tested on the ballot more than once.

How much of the swing can be attributed to the presidential election increasing turnout? I wonder if it would have passed by as strong a margin without the higher turnout. It'll be interesting to see if the trends are strong enough to use voter initiatives in the future, although it may all be irrelevant with the supreme court.

[politicallefty]

What's it look like by Congressional district? It looks like ME-01 might have been close to (if not more than) 60%. ME-02 looks to have had a pretty nasty result, almost certainly the most anti-gay marriage CD in New England.

It's also quite interesting to see every county swing towards marriage equality, which also goes to support the general theory of a 1-2% increase in support per year in that direction. Other than the odd Arizona situation, Maine's the only state where support has been tested on the ballot more than once.

How much of the swing can be attributed to the presidential election increasing turnout? I wonder if it would have passed by as strong a margin without the higher turnout. It'll be interesting to see if the trends are strong enough to use voter initiatives in the future, although it may all be irrelevant with the supreme court.

It's hard to say in the end. After all, California passed Prop 8 even with President Obama winning the state 61-37, which is something I still really cannot grasp. That's also not to mention the other gay marriage bans that passed in Democratic states in presidential years. I'm sure presidential turnout helped to a degree, but I highly doubt it was the main driving force in the end. Gay marriage tends to underperform. In the typical Democratic states, it's simply a matter of how much. As times goes on, support for marriage equality should near and surpass the Democratic nominee's support.

I think you're right in that a lot of this will be theoretical if SCOTUS rules for marriage equality, so we may not get a lot of data points.

[GMantis]

What's it look like by Congressional district? It looks like ME-01 might have been close to (if not more than) 60%. ME-02 looks to have had a pretty nasty result, almost certainly the most anti-gay marriage CD in New England.

ME-01 was indeed close to 60% (59.24% for yes), while ME-02 was 54.74% for no. In comparison Obama received 59.35% in ME-01 and 52.74% in ME-02.

[Figueira]

Sorry to bump this, but I'm struck by how similar both of Homely's maps are to the 2016 presidential map. Especially the 2009 one, oddly enough.

[Deblano]

What are the gray sections? No one lives there?

Pretty much, you also have those types of unrecognized/empty townships in Vermont and I think New Hampshire as well.

Sorry to bump this, but I'm struck by how similar both of Homely's maps are to the 2016 presidential map. Especially the 2009 one, oddly enough.

I just realized this is an old thread. Whoops!