So... why did Hillary lose Florida?

[Blue3]

All the talk has been about Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
(with Ohio and Iowa, and the closeness of Minnesota, sometimes thrown in)


But what about Florida? How did that fall apart, when we were so certain, and she campaigned there quite a bit?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Panhandle turnout was much higher than usual, plus she lost traditionally democratic Pinellas County.

[publicunofficial]

Gains in Miami-Dade and the Orlando area were cancelled out by Trump absolutely crushing in the panhandle and the non Orlando/Tampa Bay parts of central Florida.

[BoAtlantis]

Non-college whites shifting for him and lower black turnout seem to have outweighed her gains with new Hispanic registrations.

[Mr. Smith]

I thought the Cuban vote bounced back a little to Trump, and that was the final straw.

[ajc0918]

I thought the Cuban vote bounced back a little to Trump, and that was the final straw.

No, not at all. Traditionally Cuban areas moved strongly away from Trump, so much so that Hillary won GOP held seats of FL-27(Ros-Lehtinen) by 19% and  FL-26(Carlos Curbelo) by 16%. FL-25(Diaz Balart) was won by Trump by 1.5% but it also had an 8% swing toward Hillary.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Obama won Virginia, Ohio, N. Carolina, Indiana and Florida in 2008 due to extremely high AA turn-out.  With AA turn-out going back to pre-2008 numbers, Hillary lost the election.  She probably should have chosen an AA as her running-mate if she wanted to win the presidency.

[Xing]

Not just in the Panhandle, but statewide, rural turnout was up, and Trump made enormous gains in the more rural counties, which more than offset Clinton's gains in the Miami area.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Trump got 65% of the white vote. He also got rural turnout up and absolutely crushed Hillary Clinton in the Panhandle. He also did really well in Central Florida

[peterthlee]

Rural resurgence balancing the gains of dems in Duval County, Miami, Orlando, etc.

[Beet]

Bill Clinton and George W. Bush were strong candidates here due to the Bubba vote, while Barack Obama was a weak candidate for the same reason. (But he still won Florida anyway due to the size of his national margin.) Trump was a strong candidate for the same reasons as Bill and Bush. Clinton was a good candidate for Florida but not as good as Trump.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Trump gained across the board in all demographics.  Obama won FL in 2012 by less than a point.  Trump's win in FL isn't all that remarkable. 

[Arbitrage1980]

Bill Clinton and George W. Bush were strong candidates here due to the Bubba vote, while Barack Obama was a weak candidate for the same reason. (But he still won Florida anyway due to the size of his national margin.) Trump was a strong candidate for the same reasons as Bill and Bush. Clinton was a good candidate for Florida but not as good as Trump.

Democrats always do worse in Florida than their national average. Even in 2008, Obama won Florida by just 2.8% when he won nationally by 7.2%.

[Reaganfan]

Trump gained across the board in all demographics.  Obama won FL in 2012 by less than a point.  Trump's win in FL isn't all that remarkable. 

That's what made my prediction (Clinton winning 278-260) not half as bad as others, because I always saw Trump's results as Romney+some. For example, I knew he'd probably hold Romney's states and gain Ohio and Iowa for sure. NC was tight but I was confident.

My thought was, "If Mitt Romney can tie Florida with Obama, Trump could narrowly win it".

I always saw him as a stronger general election candidate than Romney.

[Matty]

the panhandle swung to hillary actually

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

the panhandle swung to hillary actually

Yes, but the increased turnout in that area made that meaningless. For instance, in Santa Rosa County, Romney getting 75% yielded him ~58,000 votes. Trump only got 73%, but it yielded him ~65,000 votes.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Florida was a strong Ross Perot state in 1992 and 1996.  Trump won on what was very much a Perot-ish platform on many issues.

Florida's population changes more radically every 4 years than any other state.  The trend is Democratic, but only slightly.

[Pandaguineapig]

Trump did better with Latinos than anyone was expecting. And despite the the Steve Schale "white vote percentage and turnout was already maxed out by Romney" mythology he crushed in Daytona beach and the panhandle allowing him to win the state by a narrow margin despite many people predicting a 5 percent Clinton win

[Plankton5165]

Florida is Trump's second home state!

[RINO Tom]

A lot of non-college whites outside the metro areas.

Trump won the college-educated vote in Florida (by more than he won the non-college vote) and he won the suburban vote.

Try again, buddy.