Which is more likely in 2018 Democrats retake the Senate or a GOP supermajorty.

[FDRfan1985]

?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Dems retaking senate seeing as midterms never favor incumbents let alone someone as unpopular as Trump but they will need some breaks like holding on in ND while Huntsman or Evans running third party splitting the rw vote in Utah and Henry Cuellar running against Cruz

[JJC]

It is far more likely that the GOP gets 60 seats than dems retaking the majority (although both are unlikely). The 2018 map is brutal for Dems:



Republicans only have 8 seats to defend, and of those only NV will likely be competitive (maybe AZ if dems field a strong candidate).

Democrats have 25 seats to defend, 10 of which are in states that Trump won. (And 5 of which he got more than 60% of the vote).

WV and ND might already be in GOP hands before 2018, and MT, MO, and IN are almost a give me for Republicans.

[JJC]

It all depends upon how terrible Trump will be...if he's moderately terrible yet distracts the voters with his buffoonish antic then the Dems will lose seats

Destroys the Clinton machine, Bush dynasty, Obama's legacy, 16 seasoned politicians (govs/sen), yet still gets dismissed as a joke by his enemies.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It all depends upon how terrible Trump will be...if he's moderately terrible yet distracts the voters with his buffoonish antic then the Dems will lose seats

Destroys the Clinton machine, Bush dynasty, Obama's legacy, 16 seasoned politicians (govs/sen), yet still gets dismissed as a joke by his enemies.

Because he is

[Mr. Smith]

It all depends upon how terrible Trump will be...if he's moderately terrible yet distracts the voters with his buffoonish antic then the Dems will lose seats

Destroys the Clinton machine, Bush dynasty, Obama's legacy, 16 seasoned politicians (govs/sen), yet still gets dismissed as a joke by his enemies.

These are not mutually exclusive things.

[Xing]

GOP supermajority is slightly more likely, though still nearly certain not to happen.

[Illiniwek]

I'm going Dem majority by a hair just because it will be a tough year for the unpopular incumbent's party.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

A GOP supermajority is a 50-50 chance, and a Democratic majority is next to impossible, so obviously the 60 seats.  Remember that there are 12 Democrats up for re-election in red and swing states, while only one Republican is up for re-election in a swing state (and none in blue states), using 2016-only PVI.

[Person Man]

A GOP supermajority is a 50-50 chance, and a Democratic majority is next to impossible, so obviously the 60 seats.  Remember that there are 12 Democrats up for re-election in red and swing states, while only one Republican is up for re-election in a swing state (and none in blue states), using 2016-only PVI.

Nevada went D.

[Person Man]

It all depends upon how terrible Trump will be...if he's moderately terrible yet distracts the voters with his buffoonish antic then the Dems will lose seats

Destroys the Clinton machine, Bush dynasty, Obama's legacy, 16 seasoned politicians (govs/sen), yet still gets dismissed as a joke by his enemies.

These are not mutually exclusive things.

Pretty much. Then again, maybe Bush and his team were masterminds that were ridiculed. No one could stop him until he had already caused his damage.

Statemanship is like a rubberband. The more you press against, the harder the backlash..the only truly succesful politicians are those who break the rubber band. No one has really broken the rubber band without a good reason. There is unrest in the world and people who have been left behind, but most of that unrest is where there used to be Evil Empire TM and those left behind are those no whom many  don't want help.

This could be a Bizzaro Return to Normalcy campaign after a flawed progressive campaign has changed much but fallen short.

Harding and Coolidge presided over the outlawing of immigration and alcohol, cutting almost all taxes, putting up tariffs, and a culture of extreme corruption.