NJ-Quinnipiac: Generic Democrat +14

[The Other Castro]

"If the 2017 election for governor were being held today, do you think you would vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?"

Democratic - 44%
Republican - 30%

https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2408

[The Other Castro]

Job approval of:

Barack Obama: 56-36
Chris Christie: 19-77 (!)
State Leg: 28-54
Cory Booker: 56-25
Robert Menendez: 40-34

Favorable opinion of:

Phil Murphy: 9-5
Kim Guadagno: 18-14
Chris Christie: 24-70
Donald Trump: 38-51

[Fusionmunster]

For the amount of money Phil Murphy has spent on ads here, im shocked his name recognition is so low.

[Young Conservative]

Ok, but how does menendez have a positive job approval?

[Gass3268]

Lol Christie

[LabourJersey]

Job approval of:

Barack Obama: 56-36
Chris Christie: 19-77 (!)
State Leg: 28-54
Cory Booker: 56-25
Robert Menendez: 40-34

Favorable opinion of:

Phil Murphy: 9-5
Kim Guadagno: 18-14
Chris Christie: 24-70
Donald Trump: 38-51

I'm personally surprised 68% don't have an opinion on Guadagno (I would've assumed more Dems would have instinctively view her negatively because of Christie). That may be a good thing for her, since it implies she's not too tied to christie, but she would still be a massive underdog against Murphy or Wisniewski next November.

[KingSweden]

Is there any upside for Democrats in the legislate or are they more or less maxed out? A 14 point spread could carry some people over the line Id have to imagine

[Suburbia]

Phil Murphy is still unknown because New Jersey focused on the presidential race. In February, March, April, he may be more well known.

Lt. Gov. Guadagno is not well known because Chris Christie overshadows her everyday. Some think that Christie doesn't want Guadagno to run in 2017, that he favors Jon Bramnick, the Assembly Republican Leader of Westfield, NJ, a swing town.

[GlobeSoc]

Good, I hope the Democrats won't have to spend money here.

[Suburbia]

Good, I hope the Democrats won't have to spend money here.

I have it as Lean/Likely D, Kean or Guadagno could make it competitive. Guadagno could distance herself from Christie.

[LabourJersey]

Is there any upside for Democrats in the legislate or are they more or less maxed out? A 14 point spread could carry some people over the line Id have to imagine

The Assembly has 52 Dems to 38 GOP, which is close to the max (I think two more seats could flip at most, the other legislative districts would be too heavily GOP to target). In the Senate, the Dems could probably win three or four seats (probably Diane Allen, Jen Beck, Chris Bateman, Kevin O' Toole who's retiring), which could give them 27 or 28 out of 40.

However one cannot discount the possibility of a "Trump realignment" occurring. For instance, Beck's seat in Monmouth/Ocean counties probably swung strongly to Trump relative to 2012. I don't know how that will effect next year but she could be safer than previous elections suggest.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Chris Christie: 19-77 (!)

Sad!

[Xing]

Christie has probably doomed Republican chances here.