Democrats won't recover the senate until 2022

[Mike67]

It may be even later than 2022

[Mr. Smith]

2018 is totally possible and given how pretty much every midterm in the past 40 years besides 1998, 2002, and 1982 is even probable.

You can say "muh ugly looking map", but trump's likely lack of popularity will make up for that, same way Johnson, Tumor, Ayotte, and Kirk got elected despite Obama's relative popularity in those states. 2016 and 2010 were favorable maps for Democrats to defend/take-back...the former failed, the latter barely held on.

All it takes is Heller, Flake, and one state to do it.  And if Schumer and Co. stop with the high ground and do as McConnell once did, and Ellison can even match Kaine...even Nebraska could go into play.

And as for 2020, Tillis, Gardner, Perdue, and Sullivan are good spots if that fails.

The only hole in this is the rather uncanny ability to nab defeat from victory's wide maw.

[Mike67]

2018 is totally possible and given how pretty much every midterm in the past 40 years besides 1998, 2002, and 1982 is even probable.

You can say "muh ugly looking map", but trump's likely lack of popularity will make up for that, same way Johnson, Tumor, Ayotte, and Kirk got elected despite Obama's relative popularity in those states. 2016 and 2010 were favorable maps for Democrats to defend/take-back...the former failed, the latter barely held on.

All it takes is Heller, Flake, and one state to do it.  And if Schumer and Co. stop with the high ground and do as McConnell once did, and Ellison can even match Kaine...even Nebraska could go into play.

And as for 2020, Tillis, Gardner, Perdue, and Sullivan are good spots if that fails.

The only hole in this is the rather uncanny ability to nab defeat from victory's wide maw.

David Purdue will win because his opponent will probably be Michelle Nunn most likely. The Democrats will probably get a seat in the Senate when Johnny Isakson retires after 2022 because of his Parkinson's Disease.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2018 is totally possible and given how pretty much every midterm in the past 40 years besides 1998, 2002, and 1982 is even probable.

You can say "muh ugly looking map", but trump's likely lack of popularity will make up for that, same way Johnson, Tumor, Ayotte, and Kirk got elected despite Obama's relative popularity in those states. 2016 and 2010 were favorable maps for Democrats to defend/take-back...the former failed, the latter barely held on.

All it takes is Heller, Flake, and one state to do it.  And if Schumer and Co. stop with the high ground and do as McConnell once did, and Ellison can even match Kaine...even Nebraska could go into play.

And as for 2020, Tillis, Gardner, Perdue, and Sullivan are good spots if that fails.

The only hole in this is the rather uncanny ability to nab defeat from victory's wide maw.

Heitkamp is going to be in the cabinet in all likelihood, so you guys need two beyond Heller and Flake. And that's if you somehow keep all of McCaskill, Manchin, Tester, and Donnelly.

The Senate is not flippable in 2018. It just isn't.

[jamestroll]

McCaskill is always under estimated. Too early to count out Tester and Donnelly. Too early to say we will absolutely gain Nevada or have a chance in Arizona.

That being said, even as I have strong beliefs against making hasty predictions years in advance, I am sure the GOP will hold the Senate in 2018.

House will be interesting.

I am not exactly old, I am 28. But I am old enough to have seen several election cycles, I feel like our younger posters get caught up with the most recent general election results. Literally two months ago, people were saying Democrats would always win the Presidency due to firewall and GOP will always win midterms due to turnout.

We saw how the former turned out, we just have to wait to see how the latter will turn out.

[Figueira]

If 2022 is a Trump midterm, with 6 more years of demographic movement, the Senate is practically likely D.  PA+NC+GA+FL+AZ+AK should be very doable by then.  Even in a worst case scenario where they only win Clinton states in 2018, that should be enough.

I'm a bit confused by this analysis. The GOP gains all 10 Trump states but loses Nevada, which brings them to a 61-39 seat majority. In order for 6 seats to be enough to flip the Senate in 2022, Democrats need to gain 5-6 seats in 2020. I think that's vaguely possible (Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, maybe Maine) but only if Trump loses the presidency in an absolute landslide. If that happens, 2022 is unlikely to be good year for Democrats even if the map is amazing.

2022 is certainly possible, but very unlikely in a "worst case scenario" in 2018.

[2016]

Even in a good Democratic 2018 I do not see Democrats holding onto Missouri and Indiana. These 2 States have moved too far to the right.

[Figueira]

Even in a good Democratic 2018 I do not see Democrats holding onto Missouri and Indiana. These 2 States have moved too far to the right.

In Indiana's case it's more polarization than moving far to the right. Trump got about the same percentage there that Bush got in 2004 (when Evan Bayh was re-elected easily).

[Hindsight was 2020]

The thing dems got for them is I can completely see Trump turning his venom on his own party if they fight him on trade wars and his cabinet picks and seeing as Heller and Flake are two of his biggest critics an going in Twitter rants telling his followers to vote third party or not at all

[Lachi]

McCaskill is always under estimated. Too early to count out Tester and Donnelly. Too early to say we will absolutely gain Nevada or have a chance in Arizona.

That being said, even as I have strong beliefs against making hasty predictions years in advance, I am sure the GOP will hold the Senate in 2018.

House will be interesting.

I am not exactly old, I am 28. But I am old enough to have seen several election cycles, I feel like our younger posters get caught up with the most recent general election results. Literally two months ago, people were saying Democrats would always win the Presidency due to firewall and GOP will always win midterms due to turnout.

We saw how the former turned out, we just have to wait to see how the latter will turn out.

This.

[Klartext89]

It's all in the GOPs hand whether they will have a lock for the Senate for at least 2024. It is absolutely possible.

We have only three Republicans in States that Donald Trump did not win (Collins, Heller, Gardner). Means 49 Seats are in states won by Trump.

If they take 2018 seriously and don't Todd Akin this cycle, they will pick up North Dakota, Montana, Indiana, Missouri without any problem. If Manchin will not run or they can take his credibility down and run a good challenger, the GOP can also win West Virginia. In Wisconsin, there's everything possible. Baldwin is anything but not unbeatable. Ohio is trending to the GOP, Brown is also not unbeatable.

If Heller stays popular in Nevada and the GOP doesn't destroy themself in Arizona (I would love to see RINO Flake go down, but I prefer a safe victory with him over a close race with Ward), they will easily be at 55-57 seats.

The Dems would need a 2008++ landslide election in 2020 and 2022 to come close to a majority.

I hope the GOP sees that historic chance...

[Pericles]

Just like how the Republicans were doomed due to demographics after 2012. Yeah right.