what would it take for this to be plausible ?
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  what would it take for this to be plausible ?
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Author Topic: what would it take for this to be plausible ?  (Read 637 times)
Cashew
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« on: December 03, 2016, 07:19:02 PM »
« edited: December 03, 2016, 09:52:38 PM by Cashew »

CNN: Trump alleges D.C. elections rigged, he actually won.

Edit: changed title
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Figueira
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« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2016, 07:40:48 PM »

To me this just sounds like Trump going insane rather than a Democrat actually coming close in DC. Remember how Trump said he could win 95% of the black vote in 2020?
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JJC
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« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2016, 09:35:24 PM »

A Democrat who promises to put every resident of DC into a concentration camp and nuke the city, while Trump has a >60% approval rating.

Ridiculous, I know, but virtually any Democrat would win DC, even a joke like Dunham.

Still wouldn't happen. Blacks for a very long time will be permanently stuck in this freakish 9-1 monolithic voting pattern.

And as long as most blacks are congregated in highly urban, poor areas, they will continue to vote democrat. Only middle class blacks even consider voting republican.

Caveat: I do think that if Trump's urban renewal/infrastructure plan is successful he could gain more black support. But I'd max that out at 15%. Generational voting patterns take time to change.
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bagelman
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« Reply #3 on: December 03, 2016, 11:00:48 PM »

Ivanka Trump is a popular candidate for Mayor of DC after making a lot of local connections during her father's presidency.
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #4 on: December 06, 2016, 10:09:43 AM »

It's already pretty plausible.
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Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries
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« Reply #5 on: December 06, 2016, 10:22:54 PM »

If you had a charismatic Black Boss of DC that made an alliance with the GOP in order to gain power and influence, this would work.  A black Ed Crump-style conservative boss who commanded the loyalty of black voters.

Not likely in DC.  But in the South, I expect some black elected officials to become the GOP and make alliances in exchange for influence, and I expect some black voters to go along.  Black voters reelected Thad Cochran in 2014 and I believe that when the black leaders that provided the margin for Cochran in the primary knock on Cochran's door, they're greeted warmly by a friend who gets things done in Washington on their behalf.
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Vosem
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« Reply #6 on: December 06, 2016, 10:52:25 PM »

This sounds plausibly like something Trump would say in real life. The connection with reality is unnecessary and in fact basically superfluous.

If you had a charismatic Black Boss of DC that made an alliance with the GOP in order to gain power and influence, this would work.  A black Ed Crump-style conservative boss who commanded the loyalty of black voters.

Not likely in DC.  But in the South, I expect some black elected officials to become the GOP and make alliances in exchange for influence, and I expect some black voters to go along.  Black voters reelected Thad Cochran in 2014 and I believe that when the black leaders that provided the margin for Cochran in the primary knock on Cochran's door, they're greeted warmly by a friend who gets things done in Washington on their behalf.

DC isn't all that black anymore, though; gentrification over the past two decades or so has really done a number on DC. In the 2014 mayoral primary, the black "machine candidate" got only 33%, with a black "anti-machine candidate" getting 43% and two white candidates combining for 18%. That black anti-machine candidate went on to win a general election against two ex-Republican independents 55-(combined)42. The primary electorate, and the city as a whole, are probably still narrowly majority black, but the general electorate most likely isn't.

Here's the thing with the sort of white liberals who move to DC instead of New York or San Francisco: they vote. Even when it's totally meaningless. And note that the city has continued to trend Democratic (from consistently >80 to consistently >90 Democratic) even as its gotten whiter; that also reveals something about the sorts of people who're moving there.

Ivanka Trump is a popular candidate for Mayor of DC after making a lot of local connections during her father's presidency.

Like I said, two ex-Republican independents combined for 42% of the vote in the 2014 mayoral general election. As long as Ivanka doesn't run as a Republican, this may not be such a far-fetched or unrealistic scenario.

A Democrat who promises to put every resident of DC into a concentration camp and nuke the city, while Trump has a >60% approval rating.

Ridiculous, I know, but virtually any Democrat would win DC, even a joke like Dunham.

"No Republican would win" ≠ "any Democrat would win"

This will be even truer after 10 more years or so of demographic change.
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