2008-A nation reborn (1st state votes!)

[Platypus]

Map after 4 states:



Warner 10-9 Pawlenty

[Speed of Sound]

Fourth state to vote: Oregon (7 EVs)

with 1,760,950 voters, the split is as follows:

Warner: 917,420
Pawlenty: 827,219
Others: 16,311

Mark Warner wins Oregon, and takes a lead in the electoral college, 10-9.

Guys, I just provide the results. You are the analysts, the predictors, etc.

i expected a close one, given oregons left lean. if the right issues are avoided, Warner could get away in most left states with little vote for independents or 3rd parties.

[Speed of Sound]

a 3rd party/ write-in campaign from Ted Kennedy/Al Sharpton would make things interesting, taking alot of the undecided vote and possibly a NE state

[tarheel-leftist85]

I think Dems. would (barely) break 40% in Montana and Kansas.  Delaware, I would put Dems. a couple pts. less.  But I like what I see so far

[Platypus]

I think of you guys as kinda reporters-i'm the official body that announces results, but everything else it up to you guys. Your analysis and predictions WILL affect the result, and may even chance the outcome.

[tarheel-leftist85]

What states are up next?  I'll make predictions accordingly.

[Platypus]

Indiana and Tennessee

[tarheel-leftist85]

Thanks.
As a professional analyst (lol), I think that Tennessee will be surprisingly close.  After his visit to the state, Mark Warner's pollsters told me that they believe the race will come down to a couple thousand votes.  They say that Nashville and it's immediate suburbs will bring the state into prime battleground territory.  Though Warner is going to make inroads in the South, I'm still reluctantly giving the state to Pawlenty:
D-49.6%
R-49.7%.
I still don't rule out the possibility of a Warner win here.  He was a big hit in this state.  They know he's a millionaire, but they feel like he's one of them.

As for Indiana, Warner's people knew they'd be sacraficing the state when they picked Blanche in hopes of picking off the lower "Bellweather Row" states.  Still, with a centrist like Warner, the 60% mark is elusive to Republicans again.
D-42%
R-58%

[Speed of Sound]

Warner will connect with Tennessee voters but not enough to pick up the state.

D-45%
R-55%

Bayh hits the campaign trail hardcore in Indiana, and while it wont win Warner the state, it has reps. sweatin' bullets 'till the last votes are counted.

D-48%
R-52%

[tarheel-leftist85]

Are we gonna results today?

[Platypus]

yeah, i was gonna do it later, but OK.

[Platypus]

Fifth state to vote: Indiana (11 EVs)

with 2,183,890 voters, the split is as follows:

Pawlenty: 1,249,390
Warner: 903,086
Others: 31,414

Tim Pawlenty wins Indianda, and takes a 20-10 lead in the electoral college.

[Platypus]

btw, guys, feel free to analyse previous results to notice any trends with previous elections or something...

[Platypus]

Sixth state to vote: Tennessee (11 EVs)

with 2,050,661 voters, the split is as follows:

Pawlenty: 1,023,636
Warner: 1,002,498
Others: 24,527

Pawlenty wins Tennessee, and extends his electoral college leads, 31-10.

[Platypus]

Map after 6 states:



Warner 10-31 Pawlenty

[tarheel-leftist85]

We are seeing a trend with some reliably Republican states:  They're red, but not as red.  Look at Tennessee!  We'll have to see how some of these light red states do.  My bet is that Warner's going to pick up several of them.  Pawlenty can be expected to pick up some of the Midwest.  However, his mediocre (comparatively speaking by previous elections in the state) performance in Indiana tells me that he won't be sweeping the Midwest.  And Illinois can be counted on for the Democrats.  I think we'll finally get to see the type of bellweather Missouri still is (slightest of advantages to Dems. b/c they have Blanche who's visited the state many times).  Warner's people seem confident they'll win a few Southern states:  Florida, Virginia, W. Virginia, and Arkansas.  They also say to keep an eye on N. Carolina and Lousiana.  He's going to need to win some of these states to compensate for Minnesota (unless Pawlenty pulls a Gore) and Wisconsin.  Even Michigan might be taken from the Democrats.  With the Northeast rock solid (excepting New Hampshire) there could be a potential 37EV that have been that Dems. that switch sides.  Most likely, both need Florida, but Pawlenty must have Ohio--or game over.

[Platypus]

good analysis

next states are Massachusetts and South Dakota, btw.

[ilikeverin]

Zogbee™ Polling:

Massachusetts
Kerry 48%
Warner 31%
Undecided 14%
Pawlenty 5%
Other 2%

South Dakota
Warner 56%
Kerry 41%
Undecided 2%
Other 1%
Pawlenty <1%

[tarheel-leftist85]

I think we're going to see Massachusetts a hair weaker this year:  Nobody has to worry about Bush, nor is their a home state advantage.  I'd say around 58/42.  We may even see one of the counties go Republican.  Regarding South Dakota, Warner says they've improved there from most Democrats, but don't expect to win.  They did take a liking to his centrism and moderate political record.  Still, I'd say 55-44 or 56-43 for the Republicans.

[tarheel-leftist85]

Latest polls from MSNBC/Dason-Mixon:
MA:
Warner--51%
Pawlenty--39%
Kerry (write-in)--6%
Undecided--4%
SD:
Warner--42%
Pawlenty--54%
Other--1%
Undecided--3%
Latest from Fox News/Bob Jones/NY Post/National Enquirer:
MA:
"The Communist Pig, Redneck (the way we made fun of Southerners when Clinton was President but don't in public anymore)" Warner--9%
"Our Savior" Pawlenty--99%
SD:
"Commie Pig"--3%
"Savior"--150%
So what if it doesn't add up--we're right.
CNN/Seven Sisters Colleges/UC-Berkeley
What's an electoral college?  National Matchup
"Redneck" Warner--3%
"Fascist, Nazi, (blah, blah, blah)" Pawlenty--3%
Ted Kennedy/Jacques (sp.?) Chirac--94%

Apparently, these polls change everything (including, perhaps our Constitution)

[Speed of Sound]

Warner may be in trouble. He keeps getting close on Red states, showing that he put alot of time into them, but hes not winning them. if he pt alot time into red states, he may not have put as much time into the more liberal states like Cali., NY, and Mass., where a 3rd party/independent might take alot of Warners votes there due to his inactivity in the states and the states' liberalism. this is just a political accident waiting to happen.