On A Scale From 1 To 10, How Much Should Democrats Panic?

[Maxwell]

3 - things are starting to get bad in terms of black turnout, but calculating out black turnout and if you get white women to move heavily toward Clinton as I expect them to and hispanic turnout to go up and heavily against Trump, then Clinton still wins.

[Storebought]

3 - things are starting to get bad in terms of black turnout, but calculating out black turnout and if you get white women to move heavily toward Clinton as I expect them to and hispanic turnout to go up and heavily against Trump, then Clinton still wins.

That's because (1) black voters aren't especially repelled by Trump, even if he will never gain their vote (2) vote suppression works.

For the part in bold, I'm not convinced that is the case. The increase in Hispanic turnout seems just as incremental and 60D-40R as in previous elections.

[indysaff]

1-2

Get back to me about panicking when polls start showing her losing PA and WI

[TDantuono]

I'm at a 10 myself. Between Trump's voter intimidation tactics, Russian hacking/tampering with voter machines, Democrat low turnout (being assured of a Hillary win), bitter Bernie people sitting home or voting for Stein, Comey's email thing perhaps pushing undecideds against Hillary at the last minute, general apathy this election and a personal lack of confidence in the American electorate, I fear the worst, and that fear won't be allayed until after this clown fest is over with. I've already accepted Trump is probably, due to a combination of the above factors, going to eke out a narrow win. I just want the anxiety of it to be over.

[Hammy]

7-8. The idea that Trump even made it to the top of a major party ticket should be panic-inducing enough, let alone being only a few states away from being president.

[Blair]

If you've got free time, and you're in the states go to a phone bank/door knock heck even talk to your friends. The worse thing to do is just sit their bedwetting about polls

[Hammy]

I'm not panicking at all. The ABC poll everyone's freaking out about is an outlier. Nothing to see here.

Don't they have one of the highest grades though?

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

If I were a Democrat, I wouldn't be too nervous about the Presidential race, but I would definitely be antsy about the Senate.

[SWE]

10.It looks like Trump's momentum is so huge he might even carry Georgia. Democrats should be terrified.

[morgieb]

Voted 5, that's probably pessimistic though. The trend is worrying, but this is probably Hillary's trough. I think she'll rebound a little bit and have enough of a lead to hold on, and in any case the map looks really hard for Trump to crack.

Definitely want the Senate though, and that looks a tossup.

[pikachu]

If I were a Democrat, I wouldn't be too nervous about the Presidential race, but I would definitely be antsy about keeping the Senate.

We can't keep what we don't have

At the moment, I'm at 4. The polls are weird, but I don't see any fundamental reason why the race would suddenly shift towards Trump.

[Anna Komnene]

10,000!!

just kidding

[Beezer]

Panic? I think it's time to skip the first 4 of the 5 stages of grief and just accept HRC's fate.

[Lachi]

1, because the freiwal.

[Nyvin]

Around 3-4

[Meclazine for Israel]

Shouldn't be nervous at all.

Hillary has this one in the bag.

Trump will get a big smackdown from the "pussy-groping" comments on election day. Calling someone a 'sexual octopus' was damaging in the context of that scandal.

If you want to get anxious, you can start worrying about the post-election FBI email investigation into Hillary.

I am sure 'Weinergate' will have some legs.

[peterthlee]

Panic is useless. The thing that we could offset this mode is to VOTE.

[°Leprechaun]

7-8

Polls show the race tightening. Even though there is only a week to go it could be a tossup by next Tuesday. I'd still be inclined to say Clinton is going to win, but maybe not by next Monday.

Trump seems to be gaining ground in swing states and WI and MI could become swing states within a week. He was even ahead by one point in recent ABC poll.

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a102016ElectionTrackingNo10.pdf

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Nate Silver is trolling Red Hacks on Atlas.

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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-yes-donald-trump-has-a-path-to-victory/

[Lachi]

LOL, Nate Silver thinks Trump campaigning in MICHIGAN is justifiable.

[IceSpear]

LOL, Nate Silver thinks Trump campaigning in MICHIGAN is justifiable.

Nate "Discredited Fraud" Silver also thought Rhode Island was a swing state.