Where are all the quality pollsters?
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  Where are all the quality pollsters?
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Author Topic: Where are all the quality pollsters?  (Read 1244 times)
Dr. Arch
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« on: November 01, 2016, 02:51:05 PM »

It's been nothing but a wave of 50-state polls, trackers, and pollsters like Emerson, Remington, and LOLras
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2016, 02:53:48 PM »

final push this weekend, i guess.

Cnn/fox/bloomberg should come for sure.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2016, 02:55:01 PM »

Dunno. It's a real shame, too, as this is when we need them most. Probably out in the field, choosing to go with one more full barrage rather than two halves.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2016, 03:51:51 PM »

There were less polls in 2012 than in 2008, and less in 2016 than in 2012. The industry just seems to be in decline. Also, the increased focus on aggregation/models reduces the incentive for individual pollsters.
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Lachi
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2016, 03:57:18 PM »

Actually taking their time to make a good poll.
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afleitch
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2016, 03:59:39 PM »

They aren't cheap. Some of the 'weekly' pollsters (at state level too) have been out of the field for over 10 days now. They might have went in earlier this week/at the weekend but they might only be able to produce one poll this week and a final poll. Makes sense to wait to later this week.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2016, 04:05:29 PM »

What's wrong with A+ ABC or A- IBD?

Or wait, the numbers...
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2016, 04:05:37 PM »

It's been nothing but a wave of 50-state polls, trackers, and pollsters like Emerson, Remington, and LOLras

Arch,
Which "quality pollsters" would you like to see ?
And do you mean national polling, or state polling ?
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2016, 04:07:06 PM »

What's wrong with A+ ABC or A- IBD?

Or wait, the numbers...

Both ABC and IBD's rating are based on their previous track records as one-time pollers, not trackers. Both of them are experimenting with them this cycle recently.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2016, 04:09:31 PM »

What's wrong with A+ ABC or A- IBD?

Or wait, the numbers...

Both ABC and IBD's rating are based on their previous track records as one-time pollers, not trackers. Both of them are experimenting with them this cycle recently.

1) What is the difference between daily vs weekly poll that makes daily ones perfrom worse according to you?
2) What do they experiment with? Never heard of it.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2016, 04:10:01 PM »

It's been nothing but a wave of 50-state polls, trackers, and pollsters like Emerson, Remington, and LOLras

Arch,
Which "quality pollsters" would you like to see ?
And do you mean national polling, or state polling ?

Pew, PPP has stropped polling altogether, Suffolk, etc.

Monmouth and Fox are around, but barely releasing polls.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2016, 04:11:16 PM »

What's wrong with A+ ABC or A- IBD?

Or wait, the numbers...

nothing wrong with IBD...they seem stable.

but ABC/WAPO model ist confusingł and not very transparent. even trump hack nr1 gingrich called it out.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2016, 04:12:01 PM »

What's wrong with A+ ABC or A- IBD?

Or wait, the numbers...

Both ABC and IBD's rating are based on their previous track records as one-time pollers, not trackers. Both of them are experimenting with them this cycle recently.

1) What is the difference between daily vs weekly poll that makes daily ones perfrom worse according to you?
2) What do they experiment with? Never heard of it.

Built in bias and house effects. You sacrifice the accuracy of your results for the sake of seeing a trend. Again, their current ratings are based on the methodologies they used in other cycles, which are different in nature to this cycle.
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afleitch
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2016, 04:15:00 PM »

What's wrong with A+ ABC or A- IBD?

Or wait, the numbers...

Both ABC and IBD's rating are based on their previous track records as one-time pollers, not trackers. Both of them are experimenting with them this cycle recently.

1) What is the difference between daily vs weekly poll that makes daily ones perfrom worse according to you?
2) What do they experiment with? Never heard of it.

Built in bias and house effects. You sacrifice the accuracy of your results for the sake of seeing a trend. Again, their current ratings are based on the methodologies they used in other cycles, which are different in nature to this cycle.

It's also not clear if daily tracker polls 'track' people who have already voted (if so, then they should be 'locked' in to the sample and not moved)
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muon2
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2016, 04:15:33 PM »

As mentioned polls cost money. The ones we mostly see are commissioned by or in partnership with media outlets. If the schedule of polls for those outlets don't include this week, we won't see them.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2016, 06:08:55 PM »
« Edited: November 01, 2016, 06:16:28 PM by Happy Sad Trumpista »

It's also not clear if daily tracker polls 'track' people who have already voted (if so, then they should be 'locked' in to the sample and not moved)
It is pretty clear if you can... read (you know, polls has to write about their methodology. It is literally none serious pollster that doesn't do it)...




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Hammy
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2016, 06:14:10 PM »

I would like to see some PPP polls of NC/FL and a few tilt D/R states before I'm confident in anything--it does seem like we've been getting largely commission polls at this point.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2016, 06:17:04 PM »

The money is in internal polling so all are going towards that. Aggregators disincentivize good individual polling as people don't pay attention anymore and the few remaining ones who actually do release public polls are garbage like Emerson and REmington
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win win
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2016, 06:19:25 PM »

the quality pollster is the one that tells you what you want to hear
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Blackacre
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« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2016, 06:35:07 PM »

What non-tracking, non-50 state polls are we waiting on?
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2016, 08:43:45 PM »

I misread this as "Where are all the quality posters?" to which I would have answered "Quality on the 2016 board? BWA HA HA HA HA!"
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