538: Matrix of states that move together (GA/NC, OH/IA/WI are cousins)
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Author Topic: 538: Matrix of states that move together (GA/NC, OH/IA/WI are cousins)  (Read 495 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: October 05, 2016, 10:11:01 AM »
« edited: October 05, 2016, 10:13:26 AM by HillOfANight »
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-north-carolina-is-becoming-a-backstop-for-clinton/
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Thought this is neat, and quantifies some of our intuitions (Georgia remained relatively close, while Trump opened leads in Ohio/Iowa). Good North Carolina polls for Clinton were followed by good Georgia polls.

It's not saying that Ohio and Wisconsin vote similar to each other, but that if Trump does well in Ohio, she won't do as well in Wisconsin, but it has little bearing on what happens in Georgia.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2016, 10:13:16 AM »
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/783685507339390976

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Religion is key and hopefully explains why people are confused Ohio and Pennsylvania aren't closer this year.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2016, 10:28:25 AM »
OH/MI/IA/WI are all cousins

AZ/NV too
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Catholics vs. Convicts
Illiniwek
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2016, 10:28:58 AM »
Quote from: HillOfANight on October 05, 2016, 10:13:16 AM
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/783685507339390976

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Religion is key and hopefully explains why people are confused Ohio and Pennsylvania aren't closer this year.

Ahh...that kind of explains things.
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Inmate Trump
GWBFan
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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2016, 12:22:10 PM »
Religious people supporting Trump are ignoring and/or abandoning their faith.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2016, 12:24:05 PM »
This is really cool. I'm curious about the methodology behind it.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2016, 12:31:21 PM »
I don't doubt that there's some correlation, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the gap between IA/OH and WI increase this year.
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Inmate Trump
GWBFan
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2016, 02:40:08 PM »
I'm hoping GA will be really close this year.

It's been trending blue anyway, and other than myself, I know of several lifelong Republocan voters who will be voting Clinton, and a lot of independents going for her too.
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