Election night: Most likely scenario

[Senator Spark]

1:

Donald Trump (R-NY) / Michael Pence (R-IN) - 283 EVs, (50.6%)
Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Timothy Kaine (D-VA) - 255 EVs, (48.4%)

2:

Donald Trump (R-NY) / Michael Pence (R-IN) - 270 EVs, (50.1%)
Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Timothy Kaine (D-VA) - 268 EVs, (48.8%)

3:

Donald Trump (R-NY) / Michael Pence (R-IN) - 270 EVs, (49.7%)
Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Timothy Kaine (D-VA) - 268 EVs, (50.2%)

4:

Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Timothy Kaine (D-VA) - 296 EVs, (50.8%)
Donald Trump (R-NY) / Michael Pence (R-IN) - 242 EVs, (48.2%)

5:

Donald Trump (R-NY) / Michael Pence (R-IN) - 273 EVs, (49.9%)
Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Timothy Kaine (D-VA) - 265 EVs, (49.3%)

6:

Donald Trump (R-NY) / Michael Pence (R-IN) - 280 EVs, (50.3%)
Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Timothy Kaine (D-VA) - 258 EVs, (49.7%)

7:

Donald Trump (R-NY) / Michael Pence (R-IN) - 290 EVs, (50.4%)
Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Timothy Kaine (D-VA) - 248 EVs, (49.6%)

8:

Donald Trump (R-NY) / Michael Pence (R-IN) - 292 EVs, (50.7%)
Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Timothy Kaine (D-VA) - 246 EVs, (49.3%)

9:

Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Timothy Kaine (D-VA) - 272 EVs, (50.2%)
Donald Trump (R-NY) / Michael Pence (R-IN) - 266 EVs, (49.8%)


10:

Donald Trump (R-NY) / Michael Pence (R-IN) - 373 EVs, (53.2%)
Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Timothy Kaine (D-VA) - 165 EVs, (45.5%)

[GeorgiaModerate]

4, then 9 (though I think none of them particularly likely).  Trump is highly unlikely to win any of WI, CO, PA, VA, or NH.  If you post that he wins FL (true in all of them), then NV is reasonably likely as well, which gives map 9.

[GeorgiaModerate]

(Shameless plug) If you like this thread, you might also like the "Seven Scenarios" one at https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=244994.

[SirMuxALot]

Just thinking that scenario #8 would have looked completely nutty to all of us eight years ago.  VA to the D while WI+MI to the R.  No longer outlandish.

[Xing]

4 is the only one I really see as plausible. 3 is the second most likely, but it's still incredibly unlikely. The only Trump victory map I could imagine would be Trump winning the Romney states + IA, OH, PA, and FL, but given PA polling, that's definitely a stretch as well.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

9, because 272 freiwal holds.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

None because Hillary wins and it won't be even close. These maps are too friendly to Trump.

[Lachi]

None.

[Lachi]

If you have a scenario of trump winning in a landslide, it's only fair to include one where Clinton wins by a landslide as well.

[DoctorWinstonOBoogie]

If you have a scenario of trump winning in a landslide, it's only fair to include one where Clinton wins by a landslide as well.

He could not entertain such an idea. Clinton getting over 300 EV? Preposterous!

[Maxwell]

Please stop listing your fantasy maps as MOST LIKELY MAPS. Thanks

Here are my thoughts:

I think the map, despite being hyped up with RE-ALIGNMENT POSSIBILITIES, will be massively disappointing. Clinton does about a point and a half to a point better, and gains North Carolina. This is achieved by most places trending Clinton while only a few, like Ohio and Iowa, trending to TRUMP. This is the ultimate Most Likely Scenario in my mind.

I'm assuming 50% Clinton, 45.3% Trump, 3.1% Johnson, 1.1% Stein, and about a half a percent to scattered others.

[Kingpoleon]

347: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine ~50.0%
191: Donald Trump/Mike Pence ~44.0%
Gary Johnson/William Weld ~4.5%
Others ~1.5%

[Lachi]

347: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine ~50.0%
191: Donald Trump/Mike Pence ~44.0%
Gary Johnson/William Weld ~4.5%
Others ~1.5%

Wouldn't Georgia go into a runoff if trump was under 50%?

[ursulahx]

I think the map, despite being hyped up with RE-ALIGNMENT POSSIBILITIES, will be massively disappointing. Clinton does about a point and a half to a point better, and gains North Carolina. This is achieved by most places trending Clinton while only a few, like Ohio and Iowa, trending to TRUMP. This is the ultimate Most Likely Scenario in my mind.

I'm assuming 50% Clinton, 45.3% Trump, 3.1% Johnson, 1.1% Stein, and about a half a percent to scattered others.

This seems sensible, except I'd push Johnson's %age up a little, and Clinton's down a little. But of course a lot comes down to turnout, and her GOTV operation may give her a little boost.

Even the above though seems pretty pessimistic re Clinton's chances.

[GeorgiaModerate]

347: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine ~50.0%
191: Donald Trump/Mike Pence ~44.0%
Gary Johnson/William Weld ~4.5%
Others ~1.5%

Wouldn't Georgia go into a runoff if trump was under 50%?

No, Georgia repealed the runoff in Presidential elections in 1968, to help George Wallace.  We still have the runoff for all other races.

[Lachi]

This is what I think is the most likely map at the moment:

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 348
Donald Trump/Michael Pence: 190

[muon2]

Map 9 would be particularly interesting if it was coupled with a Johnson surge. If Johnson then wins NM (or anything else from Clinton in map 9) it sends the race to the House. If none of the three could get a majority of the states in the House by Jan 20, then the VP selected by the Senate would become acting president. The selection is by the new Senate, so control of the Senate in that scenario becomes unusually important since it would be deciding the presidency.

[angus]

Map 9 would be particularly interesting if it was coupled with a Johnson surge. If Johnson then wins NM (or anything else from Clinton in map 9) it sends the race to the House. If none of the three could get a majority of the states in the House by Jan 20, then the VP selected by the Senate would become acting president. The selection is by the new Senate, so control of the Senate in that scenario becomes unusually important since it would be deciding the presidency.

all true, but the surge would have to be significant.  I think he's polling just over 20% in his two best states.

[muon2]

Map 9 would be particularly interesting if it was coupled with a Johnson surge. If Johnson then wins NM (or anything else from Clinton in map 9) it sends the race to the House. If none of the three could get a majority of the states in the House by Jan 20, then the VP selected by the Senate would become acting president. The selection is by the new Senate, so control of the Senate in that scenario becomes unusually important since it would be deciding the presidency.

all true, but the surge would have to be significant.  I think he's polling just over 20% in his two best states.

He would need about a 10% surge over the recent WP/Survey Monkey polls. That would put him at 35% in NM which would probably be enough to win. For example (WP in parentheses): Clinton 33%(37%), Trump 26% (29%), Johnson 35% (25%), Stein 5% (5%), Other 1%. It would have to be like the late surge that propelled Ventura to MN Gov in 1998.

[elcorazon]

9